ACUS11 KWNS 302046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302045=20
AZZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302045Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity with potential for strong
to severe wind to continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of
southern and central Arizona this afternoon. Daytime heating has
yielded MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. This, in addition to steep low
to mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level flow, will result in a
mix of cells and clusters with potential for strong to severe
downburst winds and instances of small hail. This threat will likely
remain localized and diminish after loss of daytime heating,
precluding the need for a watch.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9YufiQ7zepvKsFBJLuPTx7nMuV4TGCj1GqvFQ8We0m38AKxWpgB61eqc-93mDOeMEyJsmdE6c= Xe-SWbaV4Tp0ma0Kb8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31881252 32961254 33931215 34281138 33901006 33390956
32870917 31380916 31321101 31881252=20


=3D =3D =3D
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