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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1643

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 16 02:38:39 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 160238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160237=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-160400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1643
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

    Areas affected...Central Illinois into central Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 160237Z - 160400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A downstream watch across central Illinois into central
    Indiana is expected within the next hour as a severe MCS continues
    to push east/southeast.

    DISCUSSION...The southern end of a severe MCS continues to propagate
    to the southeast along and south of a diffuse baroclinic zone draped
    into eastern IL/central IN. Severe winds continue to be reported
    with this line over the past 30 minutes, and GOES IR imagery
    continues to show strong updraft pulses along the leading edge of
    the cold pool. High boundary-layer moisture content downstream into
    central IL/central IN (dewpoints in the upper 70s) will modulate the
    effects of nocturnal cooling/stabilization resulting in ample
    buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) with limited inhibition for MCS
    maintenance. Consequently, the expectation is for the MCS to
    continue well into central IL/central IN with an attendant threat
    for severe winds, including the potential for signification severe
    winds (75+ mph).

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7490VdnH529jFidoQBqWjPHUY56hImoQRNQtyLPowgoYceT-m4a36HiDqXRfgsOFQoO9bj-Lg= urfsJ7SeWx8BibA3NI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38738901 38808942 38938961 39178967 39408960 39628940
    39698912 39658877 39738806 40208745 40908670 40958599
    40838534 40528520 39838538 39288603 38918718 38758807
    38738901=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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