ACUS11 KWNS 160839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160838=20
KSZ000-161115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...North-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 160838Z - 161115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue over
the next couple of hours across north-central Kansas. Although the
threat should remain localized, weather watch issuance still could
be needed if the cluster maintains intensity and expands in
coverage.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Dodge City
shows a small convective cluster over north-central Kansas, just
west and northwest of Russell, Kansas. This cluster is located to
the west of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storm cluster appears to
be supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through
west-northwesterly mid-level flow. In addition to the instability,
the RAP is showing 200 to 300 J/kg of MLCIN. This introduces
uncertainty as to how long the cluster can persist, and how much
wind can reach the surface. If the storms expand in coverage and
remain at a similar intensity, as they move eastward across
north-central Kansas early this morning, then weather watch issuance
will need to be considered.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7YPlAuakpe_x94cepFuC8zHql-nu2dxtmoQ37RrLPB6rjvwpxvkM1D2jV3ni1JGm-u3dG-Gld= 84jv8qR97XshzYqNvs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39519629 39789641 39949667 39979701 39839784 39469893
39119956 38769970 38509960 38319926 38359840 38589750
38799686 39099635 39519629=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)