ACUS11 KWNS 152027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152026=20
OKZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152026Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of northern and central Oklahoma are being
monitored for severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds and
isolated large hail. It is unclear if a watch is needed at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar data indicate
agitated cumulus (some possibly rooted above the boundary layer) and
isolated convective initiation across northern and central OK --
generally focused along a pre-frontal surface trough. During the
next few hours, several high-based thunderstorms should evolve and
gradually intensify, given continued boundary-layer
heating/steepening lapse rates and rich boundary-layer moisture.
While around 20-25 kt of effective shear could limit storm
organization until a substantial cold pool can develop, sporadic
strong to severe downbursts and marginally severe hail could
accompany the more robust cores in the near term.

With time, increasing storm coverage should promote a greater risk
of severe gusts, especially with any convective clustering that
occurs. It is unclear if a watch will be needed in the near term,
and convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7odIKJezCNceAnNUjCeJBboqqeBy2KKqwt6PbhB6Mj556xMy7i1JaLsGkT8RHk0mZW_8nSef_= Btub8pzcltE2Xs1pL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35989872 36589733 36959619 36929580 36699554 36249553
35889568 34949733 34729792 34739858 34949903 35369919
35719912 35989872=20


=3D =3D =3D
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