ACUS11 KWNS 041758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041757=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi...western Tennessee/Kentucky...and eastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041757Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Deep convective initiation appears likely in the next
couple of hours. Storms that are able to develop robust updrafts
will pose a severe weather threat through the afternoon. Depending
on convective trends, a tornado watch may be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation appears likely within a deepening
cumulus field across the open warm sector. Continued heating and destabilization (MLCAPE already over 2000 J/kg into Tennessee per
mesoanalysis) across the area with negligible convective inhibition
should result in convective initiation, despite the lack of a
specific focus. While the integrated instability profile appears
favorable for deep convection, a warm layer above 700 mb is
contributing to weaker midlevel lapse rates. In fact, the latest
CAM runs indicate convective initiation across the region, but they
struggle to produce simulated storms with robust updrafts.=20
Nevertheless, for any storms that are able to develop strong
updrafts, the kinematic environment will support supercells with
tornado potential, given sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear.=20
The convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
possibility of a tornado watch.

..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cvIMEXs90EzLOcUO5X_9ko7hcyR6vnIEbN-6jQN6ceH6BN7-D5GiCZvKEoQxj02K7mn0wiQM= 3kLKsfpy73plT13fuU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33839135 34329131 35199068 35809005 36488932 36788887
36898827 36778759 36448725 35578747 35038791 34548846
34158896 33769045 33839135=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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