ACUS11 KWNS 090614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090614=20
TXZ000-090745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...parts of east-central/southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090614Z - 090745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed south of watch
399.

DISCUSSION...A southward moving line of storms from northeast Texas
to north-central Texas will pose some severe weather threat through
the early morning hours Monday. 2000 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40
knots of effective shear should provide sufficient
instability/organization for this line of storms to persist through
the morning. The line is broken across central Texas with some more
organized segments southeast of Dallas and more supercellular
structure southwest of Fort Worth. Some guidance, such as the HRRR,
suggests that these supercells across central Texas may congeal into
a cluster and move southeast toward College Station. If this occurs,
a greater severe weather threat may materialize across east-central
Texas. However, if the storms remain somewhat spaced and well behind
the gust front, a more organized severe wind threat seems more
uncertain.

Trends will be monitored and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mHvFvy_6dTtu4_iEHHNke8zJIC61ZjgieQzH1TYWLHpPKgEMX_eiKwVu8WL499ZcGKBnFPHC= DOO0qrIdCbMPkTrrXI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30629798 31129842 31489854 31659837 32309588 31629468
31029451 30459424 29939477 29789583 30179671 30629798=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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