ACUS11 KWNS 172052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172051=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-172215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...central IA to northwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172051Z - 172215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small hail will be possible
through early evening with slow-moving cells developing along a quasi-stationary front.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually bubbled along a
quasi-stationary front from central IA to northwest IL with an
initial thunderstorm near ALO. Weak deep-layer shear per the 18Z OAX
sounding along with modest mid-level lapse rates suggest convection
should limit organizational potential. But large buoyancy owing to
mid/upper 70s surface dew points along the front will aid in wet
microburst potential, especially where small, melting hail cores
develop before updrafts collapse.

..Grams/Mosier.. 08/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PTyArPEgtV5jvDD3NbvwkO0I_9FdBbCbfyUqgfJCcTlbKGQM-3j1xWrQzkgvQ3pcF-LdM7bz= iF6y8ETBWhA-ESPxQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41978929 41608916 41478961 41509043 41669203 42059343
42389392 42959356 43079309 42739152 42359023 41978929=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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