ACUS11 KWNS 181822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181822=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-181945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Areas affected...western/northern Arkansas into south-central
Missouri.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181822Z - 181945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are starting to develop across the Ozarks
from western Arkansas into south-central Missouri. These storms are
forming within an environment with somewhat more favorable mid-level
lapse rates (~7 C/km per SGF/LZK 12Z RAOB) and hot temperatures near
100 degrees. Weak shear (10 knots or less through the entire
troposphere) will limit storm organization. Despite the unorganized
nature of the convection, strong heating/instability will support
stronger storms capable of isolated microbursts and wind damage. A
severe thunderstorm watch will not be issued for this
sporadic/isolated threat.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ouUHzITqyuse_eql3fcgUPwv5DKB4lrgjt2iG6GLZXe5uKUf1J1R-SwxOGcHE81V1wjb5FZh= a9e8g3w0y1lM2jkcLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 35169426 37149362 38269286 38389236 38289181 37929139
37059118 35479180 34579232 34109341 34109380 34359411
35169426=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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