ACUS11 KWNS 182015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182015=20
SDZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Areas affected...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182015Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce large hail and severe winds this
afternoon. Storm coverage remains uncertain, but a watch is possible
depending on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed and intensified in the Black
Hills and is currently progressing southeastward. With 7.8 C/km
mid-level lapse rate sampled by the observed 18Z RAP sounding and
the storm moving into modestly greater shear, it is probable this
storm will continue into the afternoon. Additional cumulus are
deepening along a surface boundary in northern South Dakota.
Additional storms may form within the next couple of hours. The main uncertainty will be the coverage of storms. This region is in the
wake of a shortwave trough now in eastern North Dakota per water
vapor imagery. That, along with rising mid-level heights, may mean
storms remain isolated. Those that do develop will be capable of
large hail and severe winds, especially with southern extent.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 08/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PstS_ph09jpLb1qnC0Ng25xfVERGnWwd0mfegbaFHDisWcQNTLCRa64ypSNrAE8j8kBEE58l= E51W3wkzTT6yFLpnlc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 44020373 44520381 45590280 45460115 44790075 43730145
43520272 43720371 44020373=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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