ACUS11 KWNS 152003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152002=20
COZ000-NMZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...Northern New Mexico to central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152002Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected
heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. A few
strong/severe storms are possible and may pose a threat for isolated
large hail and severe winds. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus and
a few early attempts at convective initiation across northern NM
into central and east-central CO as temperatures slowly warm into
the low 70s (and even the low 80s for a few locations).
Additionally, surface pressure falls across the region hint at
broad-scale ascent overspreading the region as the upper wave over
the Great Basin begins to shift towards the central Rockies. The
combination of additional heating and modest ascent/mid-level
cooling should act to reducing lingering inhibition and promote
sustained thunderstorm development through the late
afternoon/evening hours.=20=20=20

Regional VWPs continue to sample 40-50 knot mid-level flow over the
central Rockies. Although buoyancy profiles are not expected to be substantially deep, adequate shear within the CAPE-bearing layer
should be sufficient for a few persistent, organized cells capable
of producing large hail and severe gusts, possibly up to 70 mph.
Without a more focused/mesoscale lifting mechanism present,
strong/severe storm coverage should be sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Leitman.. 10/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XQ99PVrLnpWZANE7of1D_7Tm-GOmnMssDHL2t46T6DiSRqsvrWxEr35uIePz1K05k9Gjmj_K= yK46Lan4Wrtl-UdN7s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON 35530742 35920768 36350783 36860787 37340780 37740768
38000740 39770560 39940538 40170497 40270462 40260425
40150389 39950365 39600351 39100348 38300372 36000527
35630561 35410584 35250616 35180646 35180672 35230703
35530742=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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