AWUS01 KWNH 140351
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-140949-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0017
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas affected...Northwest TX northeast to the MO/KS/AR/OK border
junction

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140349Z - 140949Z

Summary...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are
developing from western TX into western OK at this time. Hourly
rain amounts to 2", with local totals to 4", could lead to
continued isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level low is progressing east-northeast
across NM, leading to regional difluence aloft. Precipitable
water values have surged to 1-1.25", which considering the
coolness of the atmosphere, has led to saturation. SPC
mesoanalyses indicate 500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE across the region,
with the broadest instability pool across central OK. This is
helping to explain the backbuilding convection near the southern
border of KS/MO. Effective bulk shear of 40-60 kts exists
regionally, which has manifested itself across portions of the
Rolling Plains, Caprock, and Permian Basin of northwest TX.=20
Fairly unidirectional flow from the southwest is leading to
training attempts near the mesocyclones across Northwest TX.

The guidance indicates a general broadening of the instability
field (when using the 500+ J/kg MU CAPE region) with time, with
the greatest persistence across the Trans-Pecos region of western
TX. This should continue to lead to a general broadening of the
convective pattern which could increase bouts of training and
possibly cell mergers between more organized convection clusters
and disorganized thunderstorms. However, the broad pattern should
attempt to progress eastward as 850 hPa flow veers. The best
mesoscale model signal for heavy rainfall over the next six hours
in the vicinity of the stationary front across OK. Hourly amounts
to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible over the next six hours.
Flash flood guidance is variable across the MPD area, with some
areas more sensitive than others. These sort of amounts would
compromise the relatively lower flash flood guidance values across
northwest TX and the irregular MO/KS/AR/OK border junction.=20
Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_a6eAtseqa0om1E8gkgzPFR1_L6Sgdn7CoE2FmTbkzeqVO6GgexZW10lmq9rsvIVN0g2= HKxQMYGgt-Bc18Z1u42P2cA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...FWD...ICT...LUB...LZK...MAF... OUN...SGF...SJT...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38589714 38019342 36539264 35739489 35349581=20
32060045 31030356 32290359 33740150 34740112=20
36610057 37709955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140913
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-141512-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0018
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern TX & southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140912Z - 141512Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to invigorate and
solidify into a slowly progressive line this morning. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level
trough from CO south-southwest into northwest Mexico with two
centers -- a weakening center lifting across southern CO and a
more potent center moving just south of the NM/AZ border junction
with Mexico. Difluence aloft remains downstream across the
Southern Plains/TX; new convection is forming southeast of Midland
at this time. Precipitable water values are 1-1.3" per GPS data.=20
Gulf inflow continues to be best channeled up the Lower Rio Grande
Basin then upward across west-central TX towards southwest OK.=20
After initially dropping off after the evening convection, MU CAPE
is back on the rise across west-central TX, in the range of
500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 50-75 kts regionally. The
flow remains fairly unidirectional with height out of the
southwest.

The expectation is for a broad convective uptick into the late
morning across portions of west-central and northern TX into
southern OK as the mid-level low across far northwest Mexico
approaches, which could back the mean winds somewhat more out of
the south-southwest initially, possibly holding up convection for
a short time. Once the line solidifies, convection should show
some progression. The main concern from a heavy rainfall
perspective is the possibility of embedded mesocyclones holding up
segments of the line for an hour or two, leading to locally heavy
rain that would locally exceed the three hour flash flood guidance
(~2.5"). Issues would also be possible in urban areas. Flash
flood issues could be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_jNl3xZkw7WJLJXqFtOzbQ20pOidvGgFDz9eSsEuouRQhfO8muctXC1-uFwKLrvrwlK2= pUIXVs6oTQ4iMBdU9Gi0tIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35269728 34219634 31949880 30340135 29700289=20
30420352 31310324 32770109 34519946=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141736
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0019
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX into the Arklatex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141735Z - 142335Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly organized areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms with some localized cell-training concerns may
foster isolated to scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding
going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a strong southern
stream shortwave trough ejecting east across the southern Plains
which is interacting with a moist and modestly unstable airmass
downstream across much of eastern TX.

Strong forcing aloft with DPVA and a gradually increasing
south-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts ahead of a cold
front is facilitating a fairly expansive area of heavy showers and thunderstorms across central and northern TX and into the Red Red
Valley.

Recent radar trends has been showing a gradual increase in
convective organization with the activity near the DFW
metropolitan area, but with a generally progressive movement off
to the east and northeast as the shortwave dynamics interact with
the modestly favorable thermodynamic environment.

MUCAPE values are generally only on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg
with PWs upwards of 1.5 inches. However, some uptick in these
parameters can be expected over the next few hours as the
low-level jet reaches 40 to 50+ kts and PWs increase locally to
near 1.75 inches. This should help favor rainfall rates well into
the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger and more organized
cells which are being aided by much as 30 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear.

Upscale convective growth is expected with at least the early
stages of a QLCS evolution likely going through the mid-afternoon
hours. The northern end of this convective mass will tend to focus
across northeast TX and into the Arklatex region where there will
be some localized cell-training concerns. A more progressive
convective line is expected farther south. The 12Z HREF guidance
suggests potential for some localized 3 to 4+ inch totals by later
this afternoon around the Arklatex.

The antecedent conditions are notably dry, but given the
increasing rates and cell-training concerns, some isolated to
scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5OUdtSYdwrifFZh_oEhT4OdhjIrhD4SEk6mtJ91CiUWM6k2tdiTTWeHidzgbtHRVgux2= uP243a-rpWdt2NZVMiTqjwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34549428 34299311 33509314 32719423 32119559=20
32029649 32239723 32699745 33319705 34129585=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161303
FFGMPD
CAZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161300Z - 162100Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics/ascent will support strengthening
moisture flux across Southern California and the Transverse Ranges
this morning with pivoting cold front allowing for slightly
increased duration of moderate rainfall with hourly rates of
.5-.75"/hr with isolated potential to 1" locally. Totals of 1-2"
along the coast and 3-5" in the terrain may result in increased
runoff for possible flash flooding and or mudslides, especially
near recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W depicts a compact inner core of the deep upper
low/trof continuing to dig southward near 36N129.5W with a broad
diffluent region in the northeast quadrant where the exit of a
130kt 250mb jet speed max is providing solid diffluence/divergence
aloft for expansive upper-level cirrus shield with enhancing
perpendicular transverse banding. A subtle but important embedded
shortwave along the left exit of the jet shows a the developing
baroclinic leaf just northeast of the 35N125W benchmark. This
approaching wave coupled with the digging upper-level core is
supporting surface cyclogenesis along the cold front in the
vicinity of the SLO/Monterey county offshore waters, allowing for
backing and strengthening low level flow off the California Bight
through Santa Barbara county. VWP has seen an increase of
925-850mb winds over 35kts while veering from SSE to SSW to over
50kts at 700mb. This solid WAA profile has a bit of low level
lapse rates as well to support 500-650 J/kg of MUCAPE in proximity
to the cold front toward Point Conception.=20

The overall interplay of the upper-level low and shortwave will
allow for solid negative tilting of the upper-trof providing
strong 75-90 degrees of low level directional convergence along
the front while the confluence of 850 and 700mb moisture streams
will align for enhanced moisture flux convergence bringing the
slightly below average moisture values up toward something more
average or slightly above average around 1" in total PWAT, with
CIRA LPW animations denoting this trend is on track mostly in the
surface to 850mb layer.

So with the combination of increasing flux convergence and minor
instability, pre-frontal showered and possible weak/narrow shallow thunderstorms convective cores of .75" to possible 1"/hr rates may
occur over the next few hours as the front rounds the Cape and
gets that extra bump due to steepening orographic ascent as well,
though coastal showers will still be intense capable of a quick
.5"+ rainfall total too, making urban style flooding problematic.=20
The cold front will begin to press eastward, but in the short-term
as surface low deepens, the pivot/fulcrum of rotation may allow
for overrunning showers to persist across SBA into the TROWAL
across SLO and Monterey counties for the next few hours keeping
localized totals of 2-4" possible, with some continued higher
runoff and possible localized flooding risk.

Flash flooding risk will increase, as IVT values steadily increase
from the 400 range toward 600 kg/m/s, likely peaking as the cold
front and warm conveyor belt moisture stream flow orthogonally
intersects the Transverse Range of Ventura county with HREF
probably of 1"/hr near 30% between 18-20z, with 3-5" totals
expected through 00z. As such, flash flooding is considered
possible through the remainder of the morning and into the
afternoon as it reaches the Los Angles Metro proper after 18z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95dfXy5F6loNRbNt-tcBUWF77z-5_cLiTGcwDMX-mJQ-THiN2tqReSdy2vY1Q0yF6ruy= SwLb9Vo1twaJhU1n4a2w99Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36482138 36142073 35402021 34891962 34551875=20
34521780 34001755 33261777 33361890 33732006=20
34142075 34802105 35642182 36142185=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161930
FFGMPD
CAZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161930Z - 170130Z

SUMMARY...Progressive cold front with strong pre-frontal southerly
moisture flux will continue to shift eastward into the eastern
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges through this evening. Less
orthogonal ascent along terrain will reduce rainfall totals but
intense sub-hourly totals up to 1" that may cause urban flooding
and issues in and downstream of recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...RADAR and GOES-W visible imagery show a narrow band
of intense showers/weak convective cores exiting Ventura county
into S Los Angeles county extending southward through the eastern
Channel Islands and starting to approach the southward turn of the
coast across Orange and San Diego counties. Very strong moisture
flux of 40-50kts of 925-850mb flow and steadily increasing
moisture per CIRA LPW nearing .75" in that layer. Veering post
frontal flow continues to be stark, with directional convergence
remains between 75-90 degrees. Given the strength over 30kts (up
to 50kts), it will continue to result in strong moisture flux for
the convective elements supporting hourly rates of .75-1". This
will continue what has been have observed moving through
southward facing terrain of the Transverse Range including the
Santa Monica Range, where totals of 2-3+" have been observed
resulting in localized flash flooding.

The strength of flow even below 850mb will continue to intersect
the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Ranges lower to mid slopes with
similar rates near .75-1"/hr though highest peaks will start
converting over to moderate/heavy snowfall. However, with
reducing southerly fetch, the Peninsular Ranges will see a quick
pick up, but with less orthogonal convergence/orographic ascent
will also see diminishing rates and therefore totals between
22-00z tonight. The lack of moisture flux off the California
Bight will also reduce the effective ascent through the TROWAL
further back west across the central Transverse Ranges where
lighter rain will continue to slowly add to the totals through 00z
as well. With the loss of orographic ascent/convergence and
deeper moisture availability, rates will reduce but increased
westerly flow and steepening lapse rates aloft before the main
cold front will allow for a few rounds of scattered upslope
showers with .1-.25"/hr rates/totals adding to the initial
mainline. Still, the overall risk for flash flooding will be
limited to urban and recent burn scars east and South of the LA
Basin.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_T2sFFPP0svERanV2yHB5IoA9mN_NCu8DjDbOL9-ENK0iN6I0_prGm9oGnmsdshK2Oz6= ETz3Y0zf0H5_pg1kbUamKeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34701850 34251725 33811664 32841626 32471628=20
32451709 32971743 33471782 33621834 33831850=20
33981871 34221933 34601910=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051612
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-051730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051300Z - 051730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms across southeast OK are
expected to persist through mid-morning. Given high rainfall rates
of up to 2 inches/hour and the slow cell-motions, some areas of
mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
rather compact, but slow-moving cold-topped MCS over southeast OK.
Some cloud-top cooling has been noted over the last couple of
hours which suggests some deepening/strengthening of the
convective updrafts and this has been corresponding to an uptick
in rainfall rates.

In fact, the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates near 2
inches/hour with the stronger storms over portions of Pittsburg
and Latimer Counties, and there have been some clear signs of
back-building cell activity around the southwest flank of the
convective mass. The early-morning satellite imagery is showing
some increasingly agitated CU/TCU across southern OK to the
southwest of the convection, and this is correlated with a
convergent low-level jet of around 40 kts in close proximity to a
stationary front.

The thermodynamic is generally modest with PWs of around 1.3 to
1.4 inches and MUCAPE values of only 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, a
wave of low pressure is noted in surface observations along this
front near the area of most organized convection. Given the
focused area of moisture convergence around this low center and
the low-level jet aiming into the southwest flank of the MCS,
there appears to be an environment to at least sustain the
convection in the near-term.

Morning CAMs are not doing the greatest with this MCS, but the
latest RRFS guidance is generally the best with overall placement.
However, it does suggest some convective persistence through at
least the mid-morning hours. Given the convective trends, an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain may be possible locally across
areas of southeast OK, and especially with a favorable environment
for back-building and training convective cells. The RRFS and some
06Z HREF guidance suggest some parts of far western AR may
eventually see some of this activity as well.

Expect a concern for mainly urban flash flooding as a result over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R6iCeI4LmUCaA5NzmFE9j-z2RPshOwLEWmKlicx_OB1_aZJ1YiUdTOF3ArjrFdHW0hV= Ywwb_p2vB3ikXFsa4onSyOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35279546 35269464 34999407 34489415 34329513=20
34419639 34779679 35139644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060542-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
642 PM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest TX & western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052342Z - 060542Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous
with time from Northwest TX across portions of western OK. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A deep layer trough lies across the West, with a
subtle preceding shortwave just ahead of the main feature across
portions of West TX, southeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. The
combination of these incoming features is attempting to break a
weak mid-level cap across the region, which has led to isolated
shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25", ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is
35-45 kts.

With time, the cap breaks which should lead to increased shower
and thunderstorm development near and poleward of where an area of
850 hPa confluence intersects a warm front, with the zone of
low-level confluence slowly veering with time. The 12z ARW and
18z hi-res NAM are amongst the wettest guidance, showing a 3-4"
maximum somewhere near the border of northwest TX and southwest
OK. Given the ingredients above, hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, lending some credence to their
solutions. Cell training, cell mergers between more and less
organized convective activity, and mesocyclone formation are
expected to be the drivers for heavy rainfall. These amounts
would exceed flash flood guidance on an isolated to widely
scattered basis, and be more problematic in urban areas within the
region. Used the 12z REFS & 18z HREF heavy rain signal to help
define the MPD outline.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67chU8hr6wglojF9XFQcZQZ5f9RgUFP6UaatT-G40IV2BLK7d0_fXfjDMO7OIFxTB6fM= CRPmLUTn0hyH2IY20_YBaEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37019878 36389723 34339850 33749996 34510128=20
35760070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060916
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-061500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...IA into northern IL and far southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060911Z - 061500Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered coverage of mainly minor
flash flooding will be possible across central/eastern portions of
IA into northern IL and the IL/WI border through 15Z (9 AM CST).
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely where training of
heavy rain occurs with isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
possible.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0845Z showed elevated
thunderstorms over central and southern IA, with a general motion
toward the northeast. The storms were located at the nose of a
50-60 kt 850 mb jet seen on area VAD wind plots over central to
eastern KS, located north of a wavy warm front which extended from
southeastern NE into north-central MO and south-central IL. The
low level jet was rapidly transporting low level moisture into the
region, along with MUCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg toward the
northeast. Brief training of cells has supported observed rainfall
of 0.75 to 1.25 inches in 30 minutes near the central MO/IA border
between 07-08Z, showing the potential for locally high rainfall
totals if cell training is able to maintain over a location for 30
to 60 minutes. A strengthening 90-100 kt upper level jet streak
was also observed on GOES East DMVs centered over southern MN,
placing IA within the favorable right-entrance region.

While the magnitude of the low level jet is likely near peak and
RAP forecasts show some weakening through 12Z across eastern KS,
continued warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to
advance downstream into portions of southern WI and northern IL
over the next 3-6 hours as low level moisture continues to advect
downstream and upper level support increases. Low level
convergence axes at the nose of the low level jet are not
favorably aligned to support longer duration training of cells
with the mean steering flow from SW to NE (roughly at right angles
to larger convergence axes), but increasing cell coverage could
allow for some brief training from SW to NE or WSW to ENE this
morning. The potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour and 2
to 3 inches in 2 to 3 hours would surpass area-wide flash flood
guidance values which are relatively low.

Therefore, a couple of instances of lower-end/minor flash flooding
will be possible over the next few hours with impacts mostly
likely where overlap of heavy rain occurs with urban locations or
other poorly draining areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8D9mYBbu0Iq8zqihAoDjR-bFNkrufn_JFv79UQULt56TOnftIXCqBoWPO1IsavPTsjBc= DUeLvMO8mcRND-sJY_TvDLY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43049341 42899151 42709019 42548867 41818832=20
41308877 40739090 40779355 41449517 42199543=20
42869482=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062212
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast TX into eastern OK, western AR, &
central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062210Z - 070410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are broadening in coverage
across southeast OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across southeast OK and southwest MO as mid-level capping erodes.=20
The OK activity in particular is near the intersection of a
surface trough and an effective warm front. ML CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg, effective bulk shear is 40-55 kts, and precipitable water
values are ~1.4". Water vapor imagery implies a weak disturbance
is over the convection at the present time, with other shortwaves
aloft approaching from the west and southwest. Thunderstorms are
occurring on both sides of a cool wedge of air across central to
northeast OK left behind by morning stratus/rainfall. The
mesoscale guidance is struggling with the breadth of the coverage
and the location, with the 12z REFS a few hours too delayed and
the 18z HREF 1-2 hours delayed in this area.

The GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies a convective uptick in
coverage and intensity most centered in northeast TX, eastern OK,
and northwest AR through 00z before activity wanes at 03z or so,
which also matches the timing of the HREF/REFS convective
evolution. Considering the parameters above, mesocyclones are
expected. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" should be possible near
mesocyclones and where convection of different levels of
organization haphazardly merges, with local totals up to 4"
possible. Cell training is also possible as the deep layer flow
is fairly unidirectional out of the south-southwest. This flow
veers slightly with time which should allow for a slight eastward
shift and would theoretically limit even higher totals. The 18z
hi-res NAM and 12z ARW are on opposing sides of the guidance
spread, but at the moment, the 18z NAM appears to be doing
somewhat better. The guidance all appears too wet in northeast TX
at the present time, but given the incoming shortwaves from the
west and southwest, additional convection is possible in that area
at some point. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hXn_qD-Chh8OyMtbaonMLdCxO41R6d7gNxlB2gNo1GmXoX83zp-vlXgwgPFLCDSp6aR= x6q6_iWDZP02x1MvXegThV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39029383 38769202 36599238 33899435 32109697=20
31739900 33089868 34639827 35959795 36139782=20
37599547=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast IL, northwest IN, and southwest Lower
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070128Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave is attempting to hold up convection
from in and near Chicagoland into southwest Lower Michigan.=20
Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...A mesoscale convective wave across central IL is
beginning to hold up convection in northeast IL rather close to
Chicago. Precipitable water values are near 1.3", ML CAPE is
1000-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 35 kts.

The concern is that heavy rainfall will occur over a portion of
Chicago's urban area, which includes far northeast IN. Some of
southwest MI may see cell training as well. This situation does
not appear to be handled well by recent mesoscale guidance. The
parameters suggest hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4"
are possible, which would be a problem in urban areas from a flash
flooding perspective over the next several hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wtNSRhaJZ0b-AkHJXJPRJ-g52HW4bwZseH-lj-Q-xnH-Roh6js4fiYsVibky7S7LO4F= 2MsfA3vV46HJbvhEzA2vAMk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42598593 41578648 40758845 40648918 40878939=20
41018930 41548830 42178709=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062256
FFGMPD
ILZ000-070152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062252Z - 070152Z

Summary...A weak wave across western IL is holding up convective
progression across central IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be a problem in urban
areas.

Discussion...In the wake of a mesoscale convective wave moving
into north-central IL, the system's convective tail is being held
up by a weak wave seen in the thermal field across western IL.=20
Hourly rain amounts are up to 1.5" per radar estimates. ML CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg lies to its south, effective bulk shear is ~35
kts, and precipitable water values are ~1.4".

It appears cell training in this region could last for 2-3 hours.=20
In this time, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cu3PDWDwuxUiKwxwzpex5n8GbOkxAy35vzo6ex4qu-gnai0fFMgebW8YOLYV_NLTWJN= BYzCADTNScwVUB8N0-NjP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828877 40488805 39888912 39629031 40388936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070055
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-070654-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...in and near Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070054Z - 070654Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of Iowa which have recently received heavy rainfall. Widely
scattered occurrences of flash flooding are possible over
partially saturated soils and in urban areas.

Discussion...The leading edge of an upper low over the West is
pushing across portions of Nebraska and southeast SD at this time.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms have begun to blossom near a
surface low due to the difluent flow aloft ahead of this feature.=20 Precipitable water values are just over 1". MU CAPE of 500-1500
J/kg lies across IA along with effective bulk shear of 30-65 kts.

Moisture should increase further across IA with time, with
precipitable water values eclipsing 1.25" in some areas.=20
Sufficient instability should be available to keep convection
going well into the overnight period. Hourly rain amounts up to
2" are possible where mesocyclones form, cell training occurs, and
where lesser and greater organized convection merges. Local
totals should stay at or below 3". The flow noticeably veers as a
front progresses eastward, which should limit overall totals.=20
However, given recent saturation, hourly rain amounts could be
sufficient to exceed the low flash flood guidance values seen
across a good portion of IA. Widely scattered flash flood
occurrences are possible through 07z, both over partially
saturated soils and within urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8t-DVljKG8AePntYFJXiFaWqOUul6m6NleTEz-6TA7k68JCDan_Ut9hsSHGs-VWS4Bj3= Z1QII3DY3X-BNzoIM31_5yM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43709310 43369042 41699019 40319259 40109486=20
40619596 42499611=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070430
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK, southeastern KS, northwestern AR
into southwestern/central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070428Z - 071000Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms from northeastern OK into
central MO and adjacent portions of southeastern KS and
northwestern AR is likely to result in at least isolated to widely
scattered areas of flash flooding over the next 3 to 6 hours.
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but isolated 2+ inch
per hour rainfall will be possible.

Discussion...At 04Z, a line of thunderstorms was observed on area
radar imagery from northeastern OK into southwestern and central
MO, with a history of training and peak MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall just over 2 inches between Tulsa and Pryor, OK, just
south of I-44. This line has been established for a few hours now
and has resulted in a region of rain-cooled air being overrun by a
40-60 kt low level jet. The SW to NE orientation of the line,
matching deeper layer steering flow has resulted in areas of
training, but the line of storms has shown some eastward
translation over the past hour or so. Farther south, additional
convective development has increased over southeastern OK, within
weakly confluent low level flow, and is advancing northward into
the southern extent of the aforementioned line in northeastern OK.

Areas of training are ongoing from northeastern OK into
southwestern MO, and this is likely to continue in the short term.
While overall eastward movement is expected, the most likely area
for training storms will be along the southwestern flank where the
low level jet intersects the line. Meanwhile, 1000 to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE extended from the MOKSAROK intersection into central OK,
ahead of a cold front/dryline extending SSW from eastern KS into
west-central OK. A line of thunderstorms is expected to become
better established as the cold front continues to sweep
southeastward through 09Z, eventually bringing another round of
locally heavy rain to portions of northeastern OK. While this
second round of storms is expected to remain progressive, up to an
additional inch or so of rain will add onto locally heavy totals
from the initial round of thunderstorms ongoing. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible with locally
scattered coverage possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_C8PkJrA_Owm1xEsyOiWlev0uastmEwoOXMM7o6CzP4SIXhGqA7dVgZGWKsVHZsllej= U5my1FNm5afr5JQ-qT0xemg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38429281 38409202 38259130 37739134 37089182=20
36399277 35569413 35209490 35179550 35409584=20
35779609 36279599 36849542 37479443 37879367=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070551
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...IA/IL/WI junction into southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070547Z - 070920Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with 1-2 inches per hour may
produce localized flash flooding from the IA/IL/WI tri-state
region into southern WI through 09Z.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery over southern WI showed the
presence of an MCV or at least a northern bookend vortex about 30
miles NW of Madison, WI. The motion of this feature was toward the
ENE at a rapid pace of 40-50 kt. A strong low level jet of 40 to
70 kt (70 kt @ KDVN at 0504Z) was helping to rapidly transport
rich low level moisture to the north where it intersected a
southwestward extending line of storms from near the MCV center.

Forecast motion of the MCV takes it into central Lake Michigan
within the next 3-4 hours but there could be areas of training
along the axis of thunderstorms flanking the southwestern quadrant
of the circulation, with 1 to 2 inches per hour despite limited
MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg. While recent hires models do not have a good
handle on this feature, short term observational trends and
extrapolation indicate the best potential for training from the
IA/IL/WI tri-state region into southern WI with potential for 1 to
2 inches of rain in about an hour through about 09Z. Given 3-hr
flash flood guidance values below 2 inches across the region,
minor flash flooding will be possible, especially if there is
overlap with any urban locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_CbYSD-aj5mdLKSEPKlqZHichx8ffHHTjA6qAX6Jpx9_NZ16baOGfYA71z2Dj4NN2LoQ= znJ-AGHq9Ali2DPmnbzgfoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43858844 43808755 42798771 42398875 42168975=20
42249059 42509082 42869048 43508957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070956
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX/southeastern OK into AR and
southeastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070955Z - 071530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
northeastern TX, southeastern OK into AR and southeastern MO
through 15Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be common
within cell training, but isolated 2+ inch per hour rainfall
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The coverage of showers and thunderstorms has been
gradually increasing from northeastern TX into western/central AR
over the past hour, ending 0940Z. The continued transport of low
level moisture into the region and perhaps some weak low level
confluence has contributed to the recent increase as low level CIN
decreases. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms was located to the
west, along a NE to SW oriented cold front, analyzed from a GMJ to
ADH to DYS line at 09Z. The environment from southeastern OK into
central AR consisted of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.4 to 1.6 inch
PWATs and sufficient effective bulk shear values for organized
storms, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

At least a modest increase in the coverage of cells is expected to
continue from far northeastern TX into western/central AR over the
next few hours with some degree of continued moisture advection
beneath diffluent flow aloft. The environment will continue to
support a line of thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front
as it continues to advance southeastward, reaching southeastern OK
by 12Z and central AR by 15Z. As thunderstorm coverage fills in
from southeastern OK into central AR, cell mergers and training
potential will increase. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be
common where cell training occurs and isolated 2+ in/hr rainfall
values will also be possible. Peak storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches should be expected through 15Z which could produce isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Below average
precipitation experienced over much of the region over the past
few weeks may act to mitigate flash flooding to urban overlap or
otherwise poorly drainage locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!572Q3M5-9eW4h4Gdt6dqk8Vs-JAifHlJSFikncaokp8cFUECJNgx_bLRNBSaimpMRnR2= _ZLxbaqeT_K0mBGqvi_BF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37099014 36168967 35189033 33709311 33439515=20
33819637 34829581 36089355 37029134=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071944
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northern LA...Central MS...Adj. Portions of SE AR
& E TX...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071945Z - 080100Z

SUMMARY...Progressive convective line likely to be limited in
duration but will intersect/merge with precursory slower moving
cells along the western Gulf return moisture axis. Widely
scattered 2-3.5" in 2-3 hours pose low-end possible incident or
two of localized flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-E imagery suite depict
a forward propagating convective line with numerous cells
developing along the forward flanks sliding east-northeastward
through the deeper layer steering flow allowing for some stronger
thunderstorms to linger for near an hour before pressing southeastward/redeveloping. Solid mid to upper 60s Tds and near
.8-.9" of PW through the lowest layer and totaling near 1.7"
across the Lower MS Valley; and solid lapse rates given 2000+ J/kg
of MLCAPE support fairly efficient rainfall production given
strength of flux (on 30kts of southerly inflow). This helps to
support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and similar totals, but again, also
supports solid forward propagation vectors to limit duration.=20

Overall FFG values (2-2.5"/hr 3"/3hrs), especially given dry
recent conditions are not likely to be eclipsed by this alone;
though intensity forecast by the HRRR of 1-1.25"/15 minutes would
not likely infiltrate the harder upper soil column, greater
rainfall totals still are needed to result in even localized flash
flooding conditions.

CIRA LPW along with VWP notes, strong low level moisture return
off the western Gulf into along a sharp western edge of the 850
ridge axis over the US Southeast. This has resulted in a fairly
consistent pre-frontal convergence axis along this western Gulf
moisture stream. RAP moisture convergence shows a weaker but
sufficient moisture convergence axis in the vicinity of the
Mississippi River. Remote sensing shows this convergence has been
successful in developing scattered thunderstorms across E LA/W MS
with a slower northeast cell motion likely to intersect with the
approaching boundary. These will eventually merge, likely
broadening the updraft, moisture flux and therefore rates in the
short-term result in enhanced spots or streaks of 2-3.5" total
rainfall in 1-2 hours as they pass. This still remains on the
lower end of the FFG, so resultant flash flooding will be remain
widely scattered and likely lower-end remaining possible across
the area of concern through evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49yzUqznTyi1UYmqoEk1AtTQlzvgALOEibaJmiq4eAEASUmVdZ-PmMN60cXl1m_Dr3Jv= 7T659iZnAQoypftrDRTPYng$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33688954 33598878 33238852 32768843 32108876=20
31408948 31059057 30979114 30999241 31259380=20
31789434 32479385 32789329 33199171 33399093=20
33579029=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071420
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
919 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northern LA...Southern & Eastern
AR...Western TN...Northwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071420Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to widely scattered streaks of 2-3" totals in
1-2 hours along favorable confluence and training convective lines
suggest localized flash flooding is possible through late
morning/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a highly dynamic environment
across the central U.S. with and exiting stronger northern stream
wave across the Great Lakes providing a broad entrance region
through the Mid-MS River Valley while a more subtle wave over the
Big Country of TX has provided a subtle split jet feature
providing solid downstream divergence aloft across the area of
concern stretching from NE TX through the Delta Region. A stream
of mid-level moisture is exiting from this shortwave along a
surface to boundary layer WAA regime across the Red River Valley.=20
GOES-E Visible imagery shows some breaks along/ahead of the
shortwave and weak surface reflection with best backed low level
flow providing strong moisture flux convergence and convective
development near KTKI/KGVT moving south-southeastward slowly.

Solid 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE exist through eastern TX to
maintain/feed these cells and with 35-40kts of southerly flow
intersecting the outflow boundary, isentropic ascent may allow for
downstream cells developing eastward. Deep layer flow should
allow for some short-duration repeat/training. A slight reduction
in overall moisture may limit overall rates, but over 1.5"/hr
should support some localized spots/streaks of 2-3" in 1-2 hours
before propagation southward limits overall totals. Slightly
higher FFG across E TX/N LA may further limit overall coverage but
localized flash flooding remaining possible.

Further northeast, the window appears to be closing for longer
duration, multiple rounds of thunderstorms as cold front is
starting to make a push eastward through the MS Valley; one,
cutting off the overall moisture totals along the 50+ LLJ streak
but two, reducing duration of heavy rainfall. Still, regional
RADAR mosaic and GOES-E Visible still shows a few southwest to
northeast moving showers/thunderstorms pre-frontally across E AR
with some TCU across north-central LA where the western edge of
the western Gulf moisture stream is occurring.

RAP/HRRR analysis shows deep layer convergence remains on this
axis before becoming confluent with the surging convective line.=20
The combination rapidly increases convective cooling as noted in
central AR over the last hour or so, shows the merger/combination
supports an hour or two of enhanced 1.5-2"/hr rates and localized
streaks of 2-3" in less than 2 hours. These intersections are
fleeting in duration but newer ones will be expected downstream
into W TX/NW MS and N LA as the overall system slides eastward and
convective line has positive southeasterly propagation vectors.

Any intersection with urban centers will likely present the
greatest flash flooding risk, but overall scattered to widely
scattered flooding remains possible through the late morning/early
afternoon across the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!545MGXyZ_Ssl0BwFngKQPyaPOyUKXGCDNCyBov6WUEtoGs63xVol7-GKwX4uoJ6LGlZp= 3j5rXkygC2DvKdJg_MpFBI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36219006 36128862 35228840 34138878 33228950=20
32689032 32199196 31999355 31919515 31929641=20
32209683 32869673 33259606 33399536 34529244=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072049
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-080247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southeast TX & Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072047Z - 080247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
numerous across southeast TX and southwest LA over the next
several hours. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A frontal wave is becoming more pronounced in the pressure/wind/thermal pattern across southeast TX, which has been
shifting southward as of late. It is tapping a corridor of higher
dewpoints between the Middle TX Coast and Southeast LA, where
there are in the lower 70s. Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.7"
lie in and just south of this region. ML CAPE of 500-2500 exists
in this area. Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts, and increasing.

The combination of higher dewpoints in the region and increasing
effective bulk shear should result in convection with increasing
coverage and increasing organization, which will ramp up hourly
rain amounts. The frontal segment east of the frontal wave is
likely to propagate slower than other segments of the boundary,
which is expected to be the more likely focus for the heaviest
rains. The main threats from a heavy rain standpoint are cell
mergers between convection of various levels of organization,
mesocyclone formation, and short periods of cell training as the
flow is nearly unidirectional with height from the southwest.=20
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4" appear
possible in this environment. The RRFS, which can bias high,
shows a 10-20% chance of 5" amounts in the 21z-03z window. Due to
ongoing drought, widely scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible, more likely in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8y-uNwIF0JZLmrqRcYDFGhiCq7zaQew6VfU_eEyPWTLoxZfoOHqdnVXpWd8_XUzItEVx= oKzK7k_hNNWECZysLs6MTHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32059397 31349310 30019400 29609587 29889696=20
31169596=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072118Z - 080048Z

Summary...An incoming mesocyclone and elevated thunderstorms out
ahead of it with some backbuilding character could yield hourly
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" across South-Central TX
over the next few hours. Flash flooding is more probable in urban
areas.

Discussion...A frontal boundary is edging southward across the
region, with more southward sag east of San Antonio than from the
city westward. Showers and thunderstorms with occasional
backbuilding character are near and behind this front. To the
west, northwest of Sabinal, a mesocyclone is progressing eastward
elevated over the front. Precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"
lie here. ML CAPE is ~ 2000 J/kg, and effecitve bulk shear of
30-50 kts is helping to sustain the mesocyclone.

Radar reflectivity trends indicate the possibility of backbuilding
and cell mergers with the incoming mesocyclone as the main causes
for heavy rainfall over the next few hours. Hourly amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" appear possible here given the
available ingredients, which would be most problematic in urban
areas due to ongoing drought conditions.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95fFyTL52dXOxSaiUekZeNloeGDcLbzhxoPwcUc5rXUAcYdhD3gVJ53nK76zuXCBB5W6= QtPNf0JkpsockHL8hCfeISY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30089917 29859665 28959664 28989790 29169900=20
29469982 29849988=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072350
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
649 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northwest & north-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080000Z - 080600Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall concerns continue in the vicinity of a
front sinking through the region. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding, primarily in
urban areas.

Discussion...A wavy front continues to settle southward towards
the north-central and northwest Gulf Coast. Precipitable water
values in the region are 1.3-1.7" per GPS data. Effective bulk
shear is generally 25-50 kts, with the associated field sinking
southward with the boundary. ML CAPE is 1000-3000 J/kg. The deep
layer flow is generally out of the southwest. The above
parameters support organized convection, and at times
thunderstorms have organized into a linear or clustered
appearance. Cell mergers have been common where 850 hPa inflow
has shown some confluence in the Lower Mississippi Valley, while
attempts at cell training have occurred north of Houston as of
late. Mesocyclones have been present at times within the
convective pattern. Backbuilding has also been seen at times.

The mesoscale guidance suggests two main areas where heavy
rainfall is preferred through 06z -- from far southeast TX through
southern LA into southern MS, with a secondary maximum across the
Brush Country of interior South TX. Based on the ingredients
present, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" remain
possible in these areas wherever cells merge, train, backbuilding
occurs, or mesocyclones track. Much of the region is in long term
drought so the three hour flash flood guidance values are rather
high, in the 3-4" range. Urban areas appear most threatened by
upcoming heavy rains. Flash flooding is considered possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6_31B0A2GaDp9yCuMrNtL1m7q3KSwVjiLETYDH5rg0VPMfyao5QAgd6DbBitCdCKZlUb= hTOn8LQy_SPD5O7JrtCkJ7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...
MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33128827 32318749 30788773 29878893 29439145=20
29329399 28539567 26859715 26289912 27299997=20
28349995 29679852 31229470 32299144 33048981=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080602
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...Gulf Coast from Galveston Bay to western FL and
southwest AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080559Z - 081000Z

Summary...The threat for flash flooding will linger across
portions of the central Gulf Coast from near Galveston Bay to the
western FL Panhandle and southwestern AL for at least another 3-4
hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be most common within
axes of training, but localized 2+ in/hr rates are also expected.

Discussion...0530Z radar and surface observations showed a wavy,
elongated outflow boundary that extended from Galveston Bay into
southwestern AL. MRMS showed the highest hourly rainfall values
from south-central LA into southwestern AL with a range between 1
and 3 inches. 05Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE along and south
of the outflow boundary of 500-1500 J/kg and PW values of 1.5 to
1.9 inches where cold tops continued to periodically cool on
infrared satellite imagery. 850 mb winds varied across the Gulf
Coast region but were generally between 15-25 kt from the S to SW,
supporting overrunning. Aloft a low to mid-level shortwave trough
axis was seen from central AL into south-central LA, tracking
eastward beneath strongly diffluent and divergent flow aloft,
within the right-entrance region of a 120+ kt upper level jet over
the MS Valley to the north.

The elongated outflow boundary is likely to continue slowly
advancing south and southeast over the next few hours, eventually
pushing south of a majority of the LA/MS coast while warm/moist
air continues to overrun it from the south. Areas of training are
likely to continue in the short term, but should become less
widespread through time. This will be as the low-mid level
shortwave and the upper level jet max advance toward the E/ENE,
weakening and shifting large scale ascent away from the LA/MS
coast. Diffluence will remain pronounced over the Gulf Coast
however, so there is some potential for more isolated thunderstorm
development back to the west, near the upper TX coast where the
outflow boundary may continue to linger just inland of the Gulf
Coast.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nu5WEY2EOHy9lm9_7pVs8y7KZABMIuguyQaAk-lfeCccbqg5K9lhz5T_Xf26cuwoZUi= eeDl8XTGzGH9ED8YkRwGY9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32618773 32518715 31938687 30888711 30108764=20
29828838 29708944 29539053 29469202 29429360=20
29109447 29279516 30029517 30359423 30739214=20
31049025 31378932 31988841=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081002
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-081400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast into Southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081000Z - 081400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood potential will exist along the
upper TX coast into southwestern LA through 14Z. Training of heavy
rain could support 1 to 3 inches per hour

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 0945Z over TX/LA continued to
show scattered thunderstorms from near Galveston Bay into portions
of southwestern LA. 09Z surface observations showed these storms
were located north of an outflow boundary that extended from
Galveston Bay into the northern Gulf, south of the TX/LA border,
and then eastward, hugging the LA coast into southeastern LA.
Stronger, quasi-organized cells, were located along the northern
extent of MLCAPE, estimated to be 500-1000 J/kg via 09Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. The instability was present from the middle to
upper TX coast to just south of I-10 in southwestern LA.

850 mb winds were from the SSW to SW via area VAD wind plots at
10-20 kt and are forecast by the RAP to maintain a similar
intensity over the next few hours. Low level flow overrunning the
outflow boundary with cell motions oriented roughly parallel to
the boundary were allowing for a locally increased training
potential. Flow aloft remain rather diffluent which will aid lift
across the region. The environment is capable of supporting hourly
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches per hour which could result in a
isolated flash flooding, however, low coverage of these higher
rainfall rates should limit the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4IA2jrZhvNStomp_AhBZ8AQvQrtrc0aoxCuonFMDq7iY9EuCAfyQcm__EMm6XPiSUR1H= pDe3-TDmu6LMs3JBUF9qU1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729289 30489231 30129198 29509200 29329247=20
29409357 29189442 29059518 29539561 30279496=20
30649372=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081237
FFGMPD
TXZ000-081700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
736 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081235Z - 081700Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells capable of 1.75"/hr rates near the
Southern Balcones Escarpment/San Antonio Metro may pose localized
flash flooding concerns through mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...EWX RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um EIR continue to show
increasing coverage and cooling top/intensifying thunderstorms
across south-central Texas. Return weak southerly moisture flux
over the shallow cold front across Deep South Texas combined with
favorable divergence in the exit/diffluence of upper-level jet max
has enhanced scattered early morning shower activity into
deeper/broader updrafts capable of intense rainfall. VWP at EWX
combined with RAP analysis suggests a recent uptick in 850-700mb
flow to 15kts, but generally into the northern limit to the weak
isentropic ascent providing this additional convergence to
generate/expand convective activity. CIRA LPW shows sfc-850 and
850-700mb tight moisture gradient indicative of the shallow front
with values near .8-.9 and .5" respectively. The loading of this
1.5 to 1.75" total PWat into the cells has increased rainfall
efficiency to support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates, especially the broader
cell in Bexar county, which also shows solid suggestion of upwind redevelopment.=20

Deep layer steering driven mainly below 700mb has more of a slow
northward shift within broadly westerly flow, which is also nearly
parallel to the moisture/flux gradient. This may allow for short
periods of repeating to allow for hour plus duration or random training/repeating from upstream cells too. Spots of 2-3" are
possible in 1-2 hours though the mid-morning (through 15-17z)
until favorable jet divergence slides further eastward/weakens as
well.=20

Proximity to San Antonio Metro/broad urban center and Balcones
Escarpment will likely be the greatest driver of flash flooding
potential. Naturally low FFG along/north of the city with hourly
values between 1.5-2" are well within the potential of low-end
exceedance and suggestive of localized possible incident or two of
flash flooding, especially if combined with hydrophobic urban
setting, further compounding run-off potential. Though south of
the escarpment across the sandier Coastal Plain, FFG values
increase rapidly and therefore flooding risk would be considerably
lower, but still non-zero.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9tzj-zTZ90x2te8mwPXgbDHtrsqYx0S_4Cjxoj7kTw-4gQaI7vWu40Z0j9hJOpsjHCDG= UFRr_SquB34e9DYxpbqy-ek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29999741 29759663 29389614 28909595 28569640=20
28349786 28389910 28619953 28919971 29259965=20
29649922 29919843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081702
FFGMPD
TXZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081700Z - 082130Z

SUMMARY...Risk of low-end, widely scattered incidents of possible
flash flooding continue for a few more hours. Localized rates up
to 2"/hr

DISCUSSION...Surface to 850mb analysis shows the shallow cold air
remains in place across the Coastal Plain of South Texas with
surface north/north-easterlies across nearly all of the state.=20
However, onshore flow has veered a bit toward southeast continues
to isentropically ascend across the front which is banked up along
the coast itself. Northeasterly flow through 925mb at EWX
combined with recent CIRA LPW in the Surface to boundary layer
level align to denote the moisture gradient aligns with
directional convergence. MUCAPEs have modified slightly since
this morning, but remain with pockets of values nearing 1500 J/kg
to support the stronger vertical ascent for these scattered
thunderstorms. Divergence aloft continues to be fairly solid in
the weak split in the upper-level sub-tropical jet streak; but the
upstream ridging is increasing and advecting eastward in WV
showing the favorable environment will continue to shift and
eventually diminishing through the evening as it reaching the
central TX coast toward Victoria, TX

Longer trend animation shows the 925 to 850mb just east of Rio
Grande River near/centered around Cotulla; though WAA extends
through 700mb before veering sufficiently for nearly west to east
steering flow. This effective bulk shear nearing 50+kts along
with RADAR animation shows updrafts have modest rotation to
further isallobarically increase moisture flux convergence to
broaden the updrafts increasing rainfall efficiency. Bunker's
right mover propagation vectors allow for the more eastward
deflection and slowing of forward motions to allow for increasing
overall rainfall duration. Given total flux of the 1.75" at
10-15kts through the low levels as increased rainfall efficiency
in these cells toward 2"/hr with occasional localized upticks to
2.5". As such localized streaks of 2-4" are starting to form and
near the longer/higher FFG values (3-4"/3hrs). As such,
localized flash flooding remains possible though likely remain
widely scattered to scattered in overall coverage with overlap
into urban centers resulting in the greatest flash flood
potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87kuqhY-PHOB8lpVdiEFATdF6AtIQzNEIP7IVPmpoLZjcG8lbRy0R0e63zzRLJHC7FVb= a5iY9d4hrVl9oZFkS6e-Snc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29749720 29629635 29379606 28989601 28599622=20
28279687 28189739 28099840 28169892 28469928=20
29019937 29509900 29739809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091713
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Central & Eastern AR...Southwest TN...Northern
MS...Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091715Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Broadening upstream redevelopment of
showers/thunderstorms with potential for increased
training/repeating through afternoon. Rates increasing from 1 to
1.5"+/hr with 2-3" totals over wet upper-soils posing localized
possible flash flooding risk this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts a small and fairly compact
roll-up vortex/shortwave over north-central OK shifting ENE along
interface of strong zonal westerlies to the north and increasingly
flattening sub-tropical stream across TX. This sub-tropical jet
speed max at 70kts has left exit divergence favorably aligned over
AR at this time helping to support/maintain initial convective
activity into a broader complex. RADAR and EIR shows the leading
edge of the convection has seen an uptick in activity/cooling as
the cluster further expands into a weak bow like forward
propagating MCS. The positive dPVA from the approaching shortwave
is maintaining solid 40+ kts of west-southwesterly LLJ that slowly
continues to veer with bulge of enhanced total PWats up to 1.7"
interfacing with the upwind edge of the cluster. This will
continue to support upwind flanking redevelopment on the
isentropic moisture flux convergence (as noted with some weaker
elevated development across Yell/Logan and Johnson counties at
this time.

RAP analysis along with GOES-E Visible imagery shows increasing
clearing downstream east of the MS River and with slightly higher
surface moisture; instability is starting to climb over 1000 J/kg
perhaps reaching 1500 J/kg over the next few hours to further fuel
the leading convective cells. Given the strength of moisture
convergence, rain-rates will increasing from near 1"/hr currently
toward 1.5"-1.75"/hr over the next few hours. As the inflow
veers, and some weak divergence in the deeper layer steering flow
across MS into AL, propagation should deflect southeastward a bit
increasing the potential for the flanking development to
repeat/train across east-central AR along and south of the TN/MS
border (in proximity to an old eroding stationary front).

As such, an axis of 2-3" totals are probable. Recent moderate to
heavy rainfall has increased soil saturation over the last few
days with current NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm ratios around 60-65% or
slightly above normal. As such, increased run-off is possible and
may result in possible localized flash flooding (as FFG values
1.5-2"/hr; 2-3"/3hrs).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dAQwJKs4_u-8TvD6FLNcw5R__R8vOGlBxm4jPVMHErZbzOT0GBX90SS_B4FdjH9Z3XP= 52NByVPw9jnWkB0J219ny5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35629295 35619178 35439024 35058830 34578749=20
33778780 33468887 33619089 34059281 34709372=20
35369357=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092131
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100329-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern MS and AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092129Z - 100329Z

Summary...Backbuilding/training showers and thunderstorms are
showing some increase in hourly rain amounts as of late. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been showing some
backbuilding and training character across portions of northern MS
and northern AL, as new activity forms near an instability/thermal gradient/pseudo front and then propagates east, downstream. This
is occurring within an axis of some low-level confluence and ahead
of a very positively tilted shortwave moving across southern MO
and northwest AR, which is adding upper level diffluence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.4-1.8". ML CAPE to the south is
1000-2000 J/kg.

The 18z GFS-bases GDI implies further increase in cell coverage
and intensity through at least 00z, which is seen at times within
the 18z HREF and 12z REFS guidance. The area of low-level
confluence is expected to shift east with time along with the
parent upper level shortwave. Given the available ingredients,
hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.=20
Given the somewhat lowered flash flood guidance from recent rains,
flash flooding is expected to be widely scattered in coverage,
with urban areas most sensitive.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7T4DzFEPuF-viri77kXj2gMO2pn24WoR5Kz3a6HYAWivFfTzypaIbnI3GhL9c0flkEnF= EZ2s8ND0UgNI7BCoUoSLLno$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35138808 35058686 33908502 33328546 32348783=20
33459038 34388969 35048869=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100323
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...central AL into west-central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100320Z - 100715Z

Summary...A localized risk of flash flooding will persist across
central AL into west-central GA through 06Z to 07Z. Training with
peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes and up to
2-3 inches total rainfall may occur.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery from KFFC showed an MCV just
northwest of Atlanta, associated with a weakening convective
cluster over the AL/GA border. The MCV was tracking steadily
toward the east and cloud tops have been warming on infrared
imagery over the past 1-2 hours as instability weakens. However, a
remnant outflow boundary was analyzed from western GA into central
AL, and was aligned WNW to ESE or parallel to mean storm movement.
MLCAPE has been lowering per SPC mesoanalysis trends between 00Z
and 03Z but 500-1000 J/kg likely remained along and south of the
outflow boundary.

Some ascent will remain across the region ahead of a mid-level
shortwave located over the MO Bootheel at 03Z, with 20-30 kt of
southwesterly 925-850 mb flow overrunning the outflow boundary
from MS into AL and GA. While the window for flash flooding is
shrinking, there will remain some limited potential for an
additional 1-3 inches of rain from portions of central AL into
west-central GA.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8cb38SomtAxAHQ4y82lrqMJ0hKANJTS6kQvBRMpFHDlf8E51PDWUYt1xclqDrxVXj8sO= Hl2LrorvMmZK8mizs5DebHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078419 34008362 33598306 33148295 32628342=20
32388406 32398492 32608646 33028760 33638818=20
34038770 33848674 33768601 33738512=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102104
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...Hill Country into Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102103Z - 110300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
expanding in coverage going through the evening hours. High
rainfall rates capable of exceeding 2 inches/hour along with some
periodic cell-training concerns will support a threat for some
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows a well-defined
southern stream closed low and associated mid-level trough
ejecting across northern Mexico. This energy will be gradually
crossing the Rio Grande Valley going into the evening hours, but
will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled
across large areas of central TX, including the Hill Country.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place across the
region with effective bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50
kts. Already CI appears to be underway based on the latest
satellite and radar data west of a line from Del Rio to San
Angelo. As the upstream shortwave energy gradually arrives, and
what is left of the warm mid-level CAP erodes, convection should
expand rather rapidly near and to the east of a dryline.

A combination of multicells and supercells are expected within an
anomalously moist environment characterized by PWs of 1.25+
inches, with these values running about 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of the year.

Rainfall rates will be capable of locally exceeding 2 inches/hour
with the stronger and more organized convective cells, and some
upscale growth into an elongated MCS is generally expected by
later this evening. This will be supported by a convergent
low-level jet reaching 30 to 40+ kts. Some cell-mergers and
periodic cell-training can be expected, with some localized swaths
of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible.

These rains will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding given the high rainfall rates and locally sensitive
terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-lC1A621pQswQp_M-xmUpnsH_VOPGMbO157Q0JLugxibBst1mQP3Sm5pQQiUFwjHJWHG= cimM2CDb3vHpCd6zyBWqsG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33039909 32909793 31959754 30329885 29430014=20
29290111 29920205 30890183 32310052=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102131
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...Extreme Southeast WI...Northern IL...Northwest
IN...Southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102130Z - 110330Z

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and increase
in coverage this evening. High rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour coupled with cell-training concerns will drive a
threat for flash flooding, including for the Chicago metropolitan
area, going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest RAP analysis along with surface
observations shows a quasi-stationary front draped from southeast
IA through northern IL and into southern Lower MI. Multiple waves
of low pressure are transiting the front. Meanwhile, the boundary
layer along and south of the front continues to rapidly
destabilize with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg seen nosing up
across northeast MO through central IL. This is also occurring
ahead of a wave of low pressure over southern IA.

Upstream shortwave energy along with the eastward advance of this
surface low will drive the development and expansion of strong to
severe thunderstorms across sizable areas of the Midwest over the
next several hours. This convection is then expected to gradually
evolve into a couple of larger scale MCS clusters this evening.
The 18Z HREF guidance and recent special RAOB soundings shows a
strongly sheared kinematic environment, including along the
aforementioned front, which coupled with the available instability
should strongly support supercell thunderstorms at least
initially. Cell-mergers and upscale growth of MCS activity will
favor heavy rainfall totals in addition to the severe hazards.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected which will be
aided by a strong low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts. This enhanced
moisture and instability transport into the front should persist
well into the evening ahead of the approaching low center which
will favor convective sustenance. Cell-training concerns will
exist in time given nearly parallel alignment of the deeper layer
steering flow with the front. This will support concerns for as
much as 2 to 4 inches of rain locally which will drive a threat
for areas of flash flooding.

This threat will extend across the more urbanized locations
including the Chicago metropolitan area. The primary concern for
excessive rainfall totals for this period will be across northern
IL, but expect northwest IN and southwest Lower MI to also see
this threat materialize late this evening and into the overnight
period.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4tkbRv6AWfHvB_Pfak0CkgURwQLo4u8dMnTMDSaPAgHKgx0kTTqrTSpdB9DQhfin_EFR= f-PCtqkDF8E4XGzveS7td40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42718717 42588590 41908557 41268601 40648747=20
40488904 40759037 41419074 42089016 42548857=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110216
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...southeastern KS into central MO/western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110212Z - 110700Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce a SW to
NE oriented stripe of heavy rain from southeastern KS into
central/northern MO. Flash flooding will be possible in a few
areas with 1 to 2 in/hr rates at times over the next 3-5 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0150Z showed thunderstorms
expanding in coverage near Wichita, KS, which was the location of
a surface low and attendant cold fronts. Another group of
thunderstorms was located near a surface low in northern MO while
additional thunderstorm development was expanding between the two
surface lows along the frontal boundary from eastern KS into
north-central MO. SPC mesoanalysis and area 00Z soundings within
the warm sector showed PW values of 1.0 to 1.3 inches and MLCAPE
of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg from southeastern KS into MO.

The cold front is forecast to slowly by steadily advance toward
the southeast over the next few hours but a strengthening low
level jet with 850 mb wind speeds increasing in coverage and
magnitude into the 50-60 kt range from southeastern KS into MO,
will support increasing convergence of storms along the boundary.
Mean storm movement parallel to the boundary will allow for
training of cells and 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall rates as the
cluster(s) of thunderstorms advance eastward with time. Storm
total rainfall through 07Z of 1 to 3 inches is expected, but much
of that could fall within 1 to 2 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7bKxiNe35-zdAn05yFCfxvJMNpMjns8sui7UVs8Igzc1H0RcQ9HeB3pmsvKrA6aQ_GWE= JyQD74mTWjIZ3B7e4U5yxeo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OUN...SGF...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41239017 40708960 39628964 38639149 37709417=20
37089624 36969803 37449813 38119730 39309487=20
39849352 40659244 41159108=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110327
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL into northern IN, northwestern OH
and southern MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110324Z - 110900Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms are likely to result in a few
areas of flash flooding from northeastern IL into northern IN,
northwestern OH and southern MI through 09Z. 1 to 2 in/hr rates
and 2 to 4 inches of storm total rainfall can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous coverage of thunderstorms was
ongoing over portions of the Midwest at 03Z with a training axis
of cells from west to east through south-central Lower Michigan
(locally 2+ in/hr), a forward propagating segment from southern
Lake Michigan into northeastern IL and additional thunderstorms
upstream. These storms were a combination of surface based and
elevated with sufficient instability and moisture to produce 1 to
2 in/hr rain rates where training was occurring.

Ahead of the approaching upper trough, strengthening 850 mb winds
of 40-50 kt will spread northward through the Midwest into Lower
Michigan with overrunning of the front and rain-cooled boundaries
within the warm sector. These storms will propagate overall in an
eastward fashion, ahead of large scale ascent associated with an
amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the northern High
Plains. However, areas of training are likely where cells orient
with the mean steering flow from the west to southwest. A second
round of convection is expected to approach northern IL from the
southwest in the 07-10Z time frame tied to thunderstorms moving
across the mid-MS Valley. 1 to 2 in/hr rain rates will be common
within areas of training and storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is
expected where cell training maximizes through 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_YXQzp0WBLGmq37RbsyrVGLD9nd4E_oCY6E_eeiefE_GPYR8u8X96yci7Mb734hL8dC0= IIqkh2POK96yvvxoPpY5ee8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44198346 44028268 43358224 42558233 41758268=20
41128434 40858614 40758764 40878921 41898928=20
42468705 43528596 43958454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110528
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...central to northeastern TX, southeastern OK and
southwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110526Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain from SW to NE is becoming
increasingly likely from portions of central/northeastern TX into
southwestern AR and possibly southeastern OK. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr and storm totals of 2-4 inches through 10Z along with
isolated flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...05Z infrared satellite imagery showed two regions of
colder cloud tops over the Southern Plains, one over eastern OK
and another over south-central TX. Radar imagery and surface
observations showed an outflow boundary between these two regions=20
of convection which extended from just west of Clarksville, TX to
near Corsicana and southwestward to near Gatesville where the
boundary intersected an eastward advancing line segment over
central TX.

A 50-60+ kt 850 mb low level jet (sampled via VAD wind data from
KEWX and KGRK) will help to slow the southward advancement of the
outflow over northeastern TX, and will likely support increasing
thunderstorm development along and north of the boundary. Low
level moisture transport will also act to reduce a relative dry
layer between 850-700 mb as seen on OSPO LPW and RAP analysis
point soundings across the northern Piney Woods section of
northeastern TX. Mean steering flow oriented parallel to the low
level axis of convergence will likely support areas of training as
the advancing convection presently over central TX makes its way
eastward. Additional, more discrete convective development will
also be possible over portions of east-central and northeastern
TX, out ahead of the advancing convective line, but this potential
is a bit uncertain. With or without the development of discrete
cells out ahead of the main cluster, it is appearing more likely
that areas of training will occur through 10Z from northeastern TX
into southwestern AR with 1 to 2 in/hr rain rates from training.
Localized flash flooding will be possible with 2 to 4+ inches of
peak storm total rainfall expected.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4fbnMO9VYH8iZH3LBiBz9oypgjNWu-931qlX_Mi7QkuuYxAras5dIugajCII3BK1K8LK= O87OCJH8M8shVaHD2v452IE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34779291 34469230 33709240 33309280 32509363=20
31679442 30919577 30989736 31349792 31629802=20
32099777 32729687 33229614 33829530 34609432=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110853
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...eastern IL, central IN into northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110851Z - 111400Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training will increase the potential for
localized flash flooding from portions of eastern IL into central
IN and northern OH through 14Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and
storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...0830Z regional radar imagery showed a broken and
elongated axis of thunderstorms from near St. Louis into central
IL and western IN, followed by another linear segment over
northeastern IN into northwestern OH. These convective axes were
located within the warm sector of a WSW-ENE oriented frontal
boundary, represented by 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE from
south-central IL into northwestern OH along with PWs of about 1.0
to 1.5 inches (08Z SPC mesoanalysis).

Some minor strengthening of 925-850 mb southwesterly flow (up to
~60 kt) is expected to advance from southern IL into IN and
eventually western OH over the next few hours, helping to focus
one more more axes of convergence near convectively induced
outflow boundaries which will at times be in general alignment
with the mean steering flow from the WSW to SW. This setup will
support training of heavy rain at times with 1 to 2 inches per
hour likely within any axes of training.

Forecasts of instability from the RAP are for a gradual reduction
through 14Z across IL/IN/OH which will act to decrease rainfall
intensity but strong divergence within the right-entrance region
of a powerful 150+ kt upper jet max to the north may help to
compensate for the forecasts of lessening instability. Therefore,
a chance for localized flash flooding seems plausible across the
Midwest over the next 3-6 hours with potential for storm totals of
2 to 4+ inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Z8cFphTvW_N8XFRMYwpQkbaXxErJGIprrWPEANPT9DQhVwQmEJMv9LGPheKZYpsmAo5= hBXdZ-oVJ1wK-8GuROINSvE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42108112 41728081 41108194 40548310 39458592=20
39148846 40248901 41158743 41688553 41668451=20
41668360 41718284=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110956
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX into central/southern AR and
northwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110954Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm intensity and
potential training appears likely over the next few hours from
northeastern TX into central/southern AR and northwestern LA.
Training of thunderstorms will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and possible flash flooding through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Trends in GOES East infrared satellite imagery over
northeastern TX through 0930Z have shown an increase in colder
cloud tops over the past hour, related to an increase in rainfall
intensity along a narrow convective axis, out ahead of a forward
propagating convective line extending from the southern OK/AR
border into east-central TX. This activity was located to the
north of a weakly defined outflow boundary which has made it all
the way to the Houston metro and the recent uptick appears to be
related, at least in part, to increased low level moisture seen
advecting north on OSPO ALPW imagery in the surface to 700 mb
layer over eastern TX/western LA. Confluent flow just above the
surface located beneath modestly diffluent upper level winds was
observed over the TX/AR border where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was
estimated on the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis with little to no inhibition.

Low level moisture transport into the region and low level
confluence appear to remain in the short term forecast across the
ArkLaTex and eastward into southern AR and northwestern LA. Given
sufficient instability looks to remain present across the region
over the next 3-6 hours via recent RAP forecasts, an axis of heavy
rain looks likely to setup from northeastern TX into AR/LA. While
this expected SW to NE axis of heavy rain should generally move
from west to east, there is the potential for the southwestern
flank of the axis to stall, supporting the potential for increased
training and rain rates that could exceed 2 in/hr. However, more
likely rain rates within training should fall in the 1-2 in/hr
range. Through 15Z, 2 to 4+ inches of rain will be possible, much
of which could fall within 2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9uI-asL2kWpYIuDXduHCMxNuxYzA8JgQ7Ajo5KuVy07eO8Qqht4G9OoHK1K5yMdEgfj6= 8Bl-L0RfqDeiXC9FeahlHVw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35309103 34999037 33429120 31619338 31059480=20
31729528 33069475 34859258=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111652
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111650Z - 112250Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours. Locally
high rainfall rates, moistening antecedent conditions and some
cell-training concerns will maintain a threat for additional
runoff problems including isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery along with radar
shows broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing
across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. More broadly,
this activity is associated with strong warm air advection and
moisture transport continuing to lift northeastward ahead of a
wave of low pressure over southern Lower MI by also with the
advance of multiple shortwave impulses across the region.

Warm-sector diurnal heating with increasing solar insolation is
noted over central and southern OH and extending back to the
southwest over northern KY, southern IN and southeast IL. This has
allowed for these areas to increasingly destabilize, and MUCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted here with 3-hour MUCAPE
differentials of locally 250 to 500+ J/kg seen from far southern
IN and northern KY through central WV. This is allowing for a
well-defined differential heating/outflow boundary to establish
itself which is expected to become an increasing focus for
convection going through the afternoon hours. This will further be
facilitated by arrival of a new shortwave impulse from the Midwest
which should yield favorable 400 to 700 mb DPVA within the broader
warm air advection regime to drive deeper layer ascent.

Meanwhile, areas downstream over western PA and far western NY are
under the influence of a lead shortwave impulse with focused warm
air advection and DPVA yielding broken areas of convection. Some
hints at mesocyclone activity is noted in radar over Lake Erie,
and this may help to bring locally focused rains into far western
NY in a couple of hours. The 12Z HREF/06Z REFS guidance does
attempt to bring the upstream convection back over some areas of central/southern OH through northern WV and southwest PA later
today.

Expecting a gradual uptick in rainfall rates capable of reaching
1.5"/hour with the stronger storms. Given the cell-training
concerns near the aforementioned differential heating/outflow
boundary, some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches will be
possible. This will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4epEr0m_uTWVSbIfLr7vCQwmeFuPccCynI3AOkF4kTvyEbQ64setvRY_4fU5ij9gNgh0= Y3tb4NkGOR-qT7LFqWi1mCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL... LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42827882 42437812 40997863 39528042 38428376=20
37878744 38018892 38448943 38948890 40148540=20
40948307 42168059=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151842
FFGMPD
FLZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...South FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151840Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving clusters of showers and thunderstorms with
extreme rainfall rates may cause flash flooding going through
early this evening. This could include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting portions of Miami-Dade and Collier
Counties.

This convection is focusing within a moist and unstable
environment characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg
and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Some modest shear is in place with
as much as 20 to 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Much of the
activity recently though is tending to get its focus along the
presence of multiple mesoscale boundaries including outflow and
sea-breeze boundaries where there is small-scale convergence
working with the favorable thermodynamic environment.

Some modestly divergent flow aloft is noted also given proximity
of a weak shortwave west of the FL Straits and Cuba. This modest
deep layer ascent coupled with colliding surface boundaries should
tend to keep the convective threat maintained going into the
evening hours before sufficient levels of instability exhaustion
occurs to promote a weakening trend of the convection.

Already parts of the FL Everglades in Miami-Dade County have seen
over 5 inches of rain, with much of the activity staying away from
the urban areas. However, over the next few hours there will still
be a threat locally for some of these stronger thunderstorms and
heavier rainfall rates to impact the more populated areas of
southern FL which in this case will extend to the the southwest
coast including areas from Ft. Myers down through Naples. The
southeast coast of FL meanwhile from Miami down to Homestead will
still need to closely watch some of these slow-moving cells.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour and storm totals locally
exceeding 5 inches are expected where any cells become anchored.
Earlier runs of the HRRR and RRFS were suggesting this near parts
of southwest FL in particular. As such, some areas of flash
flooding will be possible given the very high rainfall rates and
totals which may include some urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VYKq4ZHl918Q3pvMYHNoqpOeYvAl-jH0wrrSGBnRCSi1o3jC2LsBNc7NHfFUTvg-7RE= -pJF1ZBRxkXB7uyLw6uPMHo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27018174 26468098 26118014 25657992 25178031=20
25298104 26088186 26738218=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262047
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Western & Central PA... Southwest
NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262045Z - 270230Z

SUMMARY...Saturated upper-layer soils/low FFG may be locally
exceeded given potential for quick burst thunderstorms capable of
.5-.75"/hr rates and localized totals of 1.5-2", especially
in/near corridor or two of repeating cells.

DISCUSSION...A strong 150-180kt 250mb zonal jet is streaking
across the northern Great Lakes into southern Quebec with a subtle
but sufficiently diffluent right exit region across the Lower
Great Lakes this afternoon. In response, strong southwesterly
warm-air advection regime is drawing higher moisture and slightly
above normal higher theta-E air across the northern Ohio Valley
into the Allegheny Plateau. Low level flow is solid per VWP with
35-45kts of 925-850mb flow from the southwest with sufficient
veering through 700-500mb to allow for a fairly unidirectional
steering flow, with allowable for upstream redeveloping cells to
potentially repeat across the area of concern late this afternoon
into evening.=20

At the surface a well defined front extends from the main surface
low in SE IA across the southern LP of Michigan where secondary
weaker wave exists, likely responding to the mid-level
shortwave/diffluence pattern aloft. Surface moisture convergence
in proximity to the surface front is further enhanced by cooler
Lake Breeze and sharper low level temperature gradient along the
southern coasts. This isentropic boundary in the low level flow
regime will support enhanced moisture convergence at the
northwestern nose of the mid-level instability pool upstream over
IL/IN/NW OH. Available moisture is slightly above average with
total Pwat values AoA 1.25", though the bulk is below 700mb and
any thunderstorm development will help to load in the lower
profiles providing some increased rainfall potential. Forward
propagation will be very fast limiting overall duration, but
Hi-Res CAMs include recent WoFS runs suggest isolated but broader
updrafts capable of the very quick bursts of .5-.75" in 15-30 minutes...particularly further west and deeper into the more
unstable (1500+ J/kg MUCAPE), higher moisture.=20

However, the hydrological ground conditions are very sensitive as
green-up is just about to start. FFG values are below average
with hourly values about 1" reducing to .5-.75" across northern PA
into S central PA. NASA SPoRT LIS products show 0-40cm saturation
values over 60% increasing to over 80% where the lowest FFG value
are; so even less vertically intense showers/thunderstorms capable
of .25-.5"/hr rates downstream into NY/Central PA are likely to
shed nearly all rain toward runoff. The overall magnitudes and
coverage are likely to be limited in scope and lower end, but
still pose a possible incident or two of flash flooding. This is
also a concern across the larger urban centers of NE OH toward
Pittsburgh metro later this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JCEIU5YItr7GdI7YePu8DnzptH-WUp77K6dlDwxPSN7BGp-1c-UvyeeyqpzQ03SeznQ= 4fb5sFTjjRsN87RHTbZVBP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42667650 42057570 41177590 40477698 40127924=20
40008191 39968419 40858437 41558200 42068053=20
42287976 42627812=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 310826
FFGMPD
NYZ000-311425-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western and Central New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310825Z - 311425Z

SUMMARY...An broken and fairly organized band of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into western and central New York going
through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall rates and some
potential cell-training concerns will couple with moist antecedent
conditions and areas of melting snow to foster a threat for
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar mosaics and GOES-E infrared
satellite imagery indicate that previously scattered convection
over southern Ontario and Lower Michigan has congealed into a
broken, linear band of semi-organized convection. Cloud tops have
cooled significantly, denoting vigorous, sustained updrafts and
thus a trend toward heavier rainfall rates.

This activity is being driven by multiple upstream waves of low
pressure over Lower Michigan that are transiting a stalled surface
boundary draped across the Lower Great Lakes. Out ahead of these
surface waves, the kinematic and thermodynamic environment is
favorable for heavy, and locally training areas of convection
which should enter western New York over the next couple of hours.
A robust 50+ kt west-southwesterly low-level jet is nosing
directly into the region, and this is generating intense speed
convergence and enhanced warm air advection. The resultant
isentropic ascent and forcing along the front coupled with the
nose of modest instability with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
should allow for the upstream convective mass to advance east
across western and eventually parts of central New York going
through the morning hours.

Rainfall rates are expected to climb into the 0.50" to 1.0"/hr
range which is supported by the 00Z HREF guidance. Given the
cell-training concerns, some rainfall totals this morning may
reach 1.5 to 3.0 inches. The HREF guidance shows the highest
probabilities of this generally near the Lake Ontario shoreline
and the I-90 corridor.

NASA SPoRT soil moisture and USGS streamflow data suggests an
increasingly moist and sensitive environment that will be
conducive for this morning's rainfall leading to an increase in
runoff concerns. Some snowmelt over the Tug Hill Plateau region is
ongoing and will further contribute to the risk. Thus, the threat
for at least localized areas of flash flooding will exist which
will include the highly urbanized I-90 corridor (Buffalo to
Syracuse) and some of the adjacent steeper terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8AHCzXz7s8TCfOg5ZP_VnIr4GREdIeEiVWfpL-qrMuZ5n0hODg8DcruXkoSt3K8v-wao= 1Z5e0VivG1oCnPGwt5-e5gw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44027576 43927446 43487388 42797394 42387468=20
42307618 42467812 42797920 43377915 43497815=20
43557751 43597685=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311733
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-312330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...West-Central New York...Northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311730Z - 312330Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms along a stationary front will
support additional instances of flash flooding this afternoon as
they overlap with moist antecedent soil conditions in west-central
New York and northern Pennsylvania.

Discussion...Airmass recovery is underway across portions of
west-central New York and northern Pennsylvania as remnant heavy
showers and thunderstorms from this morning depart the area ahead
of a weak shortwave. Within the first round of storms, periodic
cell-training led to an estimated 1-3" of rainfall near the Tug
Hill Plateau per recent MRMS and NYS Mesonet data, which led to at
least one report of flooding near Phelps, New York earlier this
morning.

While the first round exits, elevated thunderstorms are
approaching upstream from the Midwest and Ontario as a 40 kt low
level jet interacts with a shortwave and right entrance region
ascent amid widespread 7-8 degree mid-level lapse rates. Over the
next 3-4 hours, the RAP suggests this forcing will lift into the
Northeast and support an environment characterized by 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear.

Accordingly, CAMS are in good agreement for upstream storms to
intensify and train with new development expected over western New
York and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, even if they are
too slow with the activity in the Ohio Valley. As these training
storms eclipse 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates at peak intensity this
afternoon, additional instances of flash flooding are possible
owing to the low FFG values over portions of west-central New York
and northern Pennsylvania -- as low as 0.25-0.5"/hr in places.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EJ-CgQX9tgN6nfLF0Fa6tiHXcmuxFoMcHFultO3zE69V3JEza4xWbKeQtuTn9gKjaR6= KwIuCGdxbVLgYyQfTr9zw60$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CLE...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44307567 44047418 43257383 42387405 41997487=20
41857593 41787794 41977970 42797992 43527915=20
43647722=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312248
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Indiana and Northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312247Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...A line of training showers and thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding across northeastern Indiana and northern
Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms, demarcated by a pair of segments of
much more intense convection, has set up across northern Indiana
and Ohio this afternoon. The initial segment of storms is
weakening across far northeast Ohio and far western PA. The back
segment of storms is closing in on Ft. Wayne, IN. In between, some
weaker showers and storms have set up in an east-west line, with
the storms also tracking east, resulting in training. The stronger
storms in the back segment over Indiana have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour.

Most high-resolution model guidance, while behind where the storms
actually are by about 2 hours, still suggest that the back segment
in Indiana will "fill-in" as it moves east, resulting in an
east-west oriented cluster of more intense convection where
individual cells embedded within the cluster train over the same
areas. PWATs are over 1.25 inches into the Ohio Valley, and CAPE
values are between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central Illinois and
Indiana. Combined with sufficient forcing along the front, the
setup suggests that the storms will have no trouble keeping storms
intense and capable of heavy rainfall through the late afternoon.
Flash flood guidance of 1.5-2 inches in 3-hours over most of
northern Ohio should be exceeded given the 1.5+ in/hr rates
already seen with the storms over Indiana, especially as the area
in between the segments of storms fills in over the next couple
hours or so.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9katCsrILRBviETCD9baUTBW-entNocx3aUDfVX0zPtQ1-_gWeFWjQKpZxCjtuj3LBoR= n5aJas2ZuX-LnVZ95p0DOIY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428566 41388486 41388354 41338219 40998116=20
40188133 39788205 39858257 40018339 40278406=20
40528477 40908555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312334
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312332Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Additional convection moving into western Pennsylvania
and New York will likely cause more flash flooding into the
evening as additional line segments of storms move over previously
hard-hit and low FFG areas.

DISCUSSION... A series of line segments of showers and
thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward out of Ohio and the
Ontario Peninsula towards western New York and Pennsylvania. Very
low FFGs are in place across much of western New York from ongoing
or recently ended storms. As the next round of storms approaches,
additional rainfall will be moving over areas with ongoing
flooding, or in the case of portions of western Pennsylvania, over
areas with low FFGs such that new flooding is likely as the storms
continue to produce occasional rainfall rates exceeding 1" per
hour. Diminishing daylight will help to gradually lower the
instability and potential rainfall rates, however, even somewhat
lighter rainfall under an inch per hour, with sufficient duration,
will cause flash flooding.

As the storms move across New York and Pennsylvania, they remain
likely to align in a roughly west-to-east line, allowing training
from multiple heavier rain cells to move over the same areas.
Thus, while rainfall rates may decline with time, training over
low FFG areas should still result in some flooding. This is in
large part due to a 40-50 kt LLJ tracking WNW across the region,
supplying moisture and instability to the warm environment ahead
of the front, but at an angle sufficiently parallel to the front
to support multiple rounds of training thunderstorms.

Late this evening, all the activity is expected to sink south
across Pennsylvania and weaken with time as nocturnal, more stable
air builds, thus ending the rain threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9nYAagNkdaLmiARDmb5B-J7MLVifvbNFdGo3hkmYXuJtkjw9XZ1oWUyCPemCjLUfDu= WEZ4i5EVs1mqfDGjSL66QBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43427851 43347775 43287753 43307704 43307683=20
43087627 42977548 42837468 42627382 41957389=20
41857413 41547507 41197581 40797663 40507758=20
40447868 40357938 40508016 41008064 41948069=20
42547933 42847890 43047908 43307904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010256
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010255Z - 010855Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to track across the Ohio Valley overnight. Training
of convective cells will lead to additional localized rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Given wet antecedent conditions,
isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely, particularly in
urban areas and locations that have seen prior rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics indicate a broad, active
corridor of convection extending from central Indiana through Ohio
and into western Pennsylvania. This activity is being driven by a
persistent 40 to 50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet that is
maintaining strong moisture convergence and isentropic ascent over
convectively induced outflow boundaries south of a slow-moving and
largely stalled synoptic front.

While absolute instability and moisture are modest, the highly
favorable kinematics and the continuous convective regeneration
along these boundaries are resulting in localized pockets of
cell-training. Current MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates are
generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch per hour, but are peaking as high as
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour occasionally with the strongest and
most anchored cores.

High-resolution guidance, including the 18Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs, indicates this low-level jet will remain robust through much
of the overnight hours before gradually weakening after 09Z. As a
result, this regenerative convective threat will tend to be
sustained at least over the next several hours. In time,
additional slackening of the instability will tend to weaken the
activity and lessen the rain rates. Nevertheless, additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected along the
primary training axes overnight.

Recent rainfall has left antecedent soil conditions wet to
saturated across portions of the region, promoting significantly
lower FFG thresholds. The combination of primed basins, fairly
efficient rainfall rates, and rainfall duration will lead to areas
of rapid runoff. As a result, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely, with an elevated threat for
urban corridors and the sensitive terrain of western Pennsylvania.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cqq3Qkxda1cDhhl-m2210Q2IB8-1NPKXUSotooev16O4acN3ywmZbbQOEeHSEHgNphV= lpQWRHzZa9mdWjIbBM7F6J0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917964 41667841 41117789 40387837 40058033=20
39898267 39958431 40068543 40418605 40978622=20
41488551 41678458 41628250 41868093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into
Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020000Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training
and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite
very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is
underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms
have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing
with other storms that have developed roughly along the
Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across
Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as
the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of
storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the
night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and
Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two
features approach to each other will stall the eastward
progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing
additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain.

Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the
highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy
rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally
however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could
see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are
being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb,
which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same
low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific
front catches up to the storms.

More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected
late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the
stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the
east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat
for this portion of the Plains.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67PWvjvzgF5U3nymtUVCkJZO5-yAqUJy5QknMaWNxx8umxVicCfAnM6P3mTvaFirmEm1= VPlHiKZWo96NK2E-cjjv8po$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39889203 39669129 39089118 38339159 37269250=20
36149391 35629503 35399613 35509702 35949717=20
36489724 37049714 37489664 37869625 38649564=20
39219497 39359466 39519416 39629374 39789302=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020531
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Kansas, western/central/southern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020529Z - 021029Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flooding continues -
particularly across west-central Missouri. Another 2-3 hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall are expected, potentially exacerbating
ongoing flash flooding.

Discussion...An axis of training convection has persisted along a southwest-to-northeast oriented line from just west of Columbia to
about 50 miles north of Joplin. Along this axis, persistent
rainfall has resulted in around 2-6 inches of rainfall in the past
6 hours. The rainfall is being supported by strong southerly
low-level flow (~40 knots at 850mb) impinging on a remnant outflow
boundary from earlier storms. Deep southwesterly steering flow
aloft was enabling additional convective elements to develop
initially from a slightly more buoyant airmass over southeastern
Kansas and move northeastward along this axis. Heavy rain has
resulted in numerous road closures tonight.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected across the impacted region.=20
Deep convection extends from near Joplin southwestward to the
Oklahoma/Kansas border near Bartlesville that will migrate
east-northeastward. The clearing line behind this activity is
roughly along US 75 (near a propagating MCS) and will take another
2-4 hours to clear the region. Flash flooding is expected to
continue (and perhaps worsen) through 10Z/5a central.

Farther south and east, dry antecedent conditions and the
forward-propagating nature of the Oklahoma/Kansas linear
segment/MCS should result in lower chances for flash flooding
overall. Low-water crossing and sensitive spots will have the
greatest risk of isolated flash flooding in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!96GsjcHescerhJ3lgQ1A_gnKd4VW2UJIOnsXQXRJG4FnT6XwEYGU8_Q5qKm5fK_XSf6x= XQ3WmURy7ynKUQ7yom-iMMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379336 39269155 37939119 36669237 36579402=20
37059514 37569530 38519466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021906
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030030Z

SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rainfall within approaching
thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding this
afternoon, potentially impacting the afternoon commute.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of heavy rainfall north of I-80 is
making its way through eastern IA, northwest IL, and southern WI.
This focused area of mesoscale enhanced rainfall is due to strong
50-60kt 850mb winds out of the SW that are intersecting the
surface warm front as it lifts north. The Midwest is also feeling
the effects or a negatively-tilted 500mb vorticity maximum that is
crossing east of the MO River this afternoon, generating
exceptional upper-level divergence atop the atmospheric column.
The highlighted region features >1.25" PWs, values that are above
the 99th climatological percentile. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have flared up along the surface cold front in
southern IA and northern MO. MUCAPE is likely to range between
500-1,000 J/kg this afternoon as the warm sector races in aloft.
These storms are progressive, but are heading northeast towards
the same section of southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA that
are seeing MRMS radar estimated rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. HRRR
sampled soundings show warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000ft, so
while rates may not be overly impressive, the rainfall itself
features some supportive warm-rain processes aloft.

In most cases, these areas would handle 0.5"/hr rainfall rates
fairly well. That said, 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.0-1.5"
and with MUCAPE values gradually increasing as the warm sector
encroaches, the band of rainfall currently in progress and the
approaching storms could generate hourly rainfall rates up to
1"/hr over the next several hours. Showers and storms remain
progressive, thus limiting the areal extent and capping the
severity of the potential for flash flooding. However, any areas
that contend with both the ongoing band of heavy rain in eastern
IA, northwest IL, and southern WI that then see the more intense
storms pass through this afternoon could encounter some localized
flash flooding and ponding. Any ponding on roadways could cause
some trouble for motorists during the afternoon commute. More
heavily urbanized locations containing a larger concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces are particuarly prone to flash flooding, as
well as low-lying areas and typical spots that drain poorly.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kI67TM1hzkNwiHmOSK6m1yN5LwLWpPS3lCNlXFC-Yg9N8M29zrJZ7LNa5kbZ4sXjl3B= DOoNLcqj2eA1r7UuMCigUkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44098771 43658752 43058766 42608790 41848894=20
41488991 41449125 41799184 42539174 42929097=20
43488964 44088827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes & Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040150Z

SUMMARY...Progressive but potentially training thunderstorms have
the potential to generate rainfall rates over 1.5"/hr. Locally
saturated soils could be particularly at-risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and low-level theta-e advection has
destabilized the atmosphere from central IN all the way to western
PA with as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE having become
available in the past 3 hours per RTMA. Mesoscale guidance is
showing as much as 1.5" PWs will be available over the western
half of the at-risk region while PWs range between 1.2-1.5" over
eastern OH and western PA. All PWs referenced are comfortably
above the 90th climatological percentile. Mean winds within the
850-300mb layer are running nearly parallel to a quasi-stationary
front located over northern OH and along the Chautauqua Ridge.

As differential heating along the front strengthens and convective
temperatures over the OH Valley are reached, widespread showers
and storms will develop and track WSW to ENE this afternoon and
evening. Storms tracking parallel to the front with no change in
the mean storm motion will support the potential for training and
even back-building storms this afternoon. Soils in the region have
grown increasingly saturated, particularly eastern OH and western
PA where MRMS soil moisture values are between 50-75% saturated.
12Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF totals surpassing
3-hr FFGs in northern OH between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon, with
similar low chance probabilities in far western PA. Eastern IN is
farther east of the better probabilistic guidance, but some recent
CAMs runs have shown some potential for 1.5"/hr rainfall rates in
developing cells.

The progressive motion of these cells should limit storm residency
times, but with redeveloping storms expected to the south and
west, training of storms containing up to 1.5"/hr rainfall rates
are possible. 1-hr FFGs for much of the area range between
1.0-1.5" as well, making it possible for areas of flash flooding
to occur this afternoon. Low-lying and poor drainage areas are
at-risk, including more urbanized locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l5tZCQ8U5jzSFpiqd3uD1sg9sw9HuwEmBUXx4_VUkwfn2SsR8DwDeLNy7zNTLlPDV96= lh7H6-9qcXBSYaN0UwToY5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151=20
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614=20
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern OK & Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032100Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms flaring up along and
ahead of the dryline and an approaching cold front will back-build
this afternoon and produce rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Instances
of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery show
thunderstorms erupting along the cold front over southern KS and
near the dryline from the Red River on south and west. There is no
shortage of instability as RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. PWs currently are less than
1.5" where storms are initiating. That will soon change as
southerly low-level flow sustains the ongoing 850mb theta-e
advection. Meanwhile, the cold front diving south will slow down
as southerly low-level winds intersect the boundary, allowing for
a prolonged window of low-level forced ascent into a highly
unstable environment. PWs will soon top 1.5" as the LLJ
strengthens and warm cloud layers gradually deepen as the evening
approaches.

Excellent vertical wind shear aloft (40-50 kts effective bulk
shear) and increasingly curved low-level hodographs containing as
much as 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH will support supercells at
the onset before congealing into a more organized linear cluster
of storms this evening. Where mesocyclones develop, rainfall rates
can be enhanced and exceed 2"/hr in some cases. The concern for
locally significant flash flooding is due to the slowing of the
cold front and the receding dry line as it backs up to the west.
Several hours worth of southerly flow into these frontal
boundaries combined with beneficial vertical wind profiles can
give rise to back-building thunderstorms from north TX into
central and northeast OK through this evening. 12Z HREF guidance
does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for storms that are
capable of producing 6hr QPF > 6-hr FFGs through 06Z tonight. The
20Z run of the WoFS (15km neighborhood probabailities) also showed
some >50% probabilities for >2" of rainfall just north and south
of the OKC metro area through 02Z.

Soils in the Southern Plains welcome the rain given much of the
region's D1-D3 drought status. However, these kind of excessive
rainfall rates over very dry/hard soils can struggle to soak in
rainfall right away and act more as like a hydrophobic surface.
This can lead to rapid rises in water both in poor drainage areas
and near by creek beds. Any metropolitan areas with a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are also vulnerable. The
combination of excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and what is
appearing to be multiple rounds of thunderstorms into this evening
favors the likelihood for flash flooding. In cases where
back-building and training occur, locally considerable instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AiuvJ3eOGnAlJe23itflsM8uEAPnBo3alG2JInTg3_-1idawiIBf7s1ydK8mL7Kuvt2= 5xfQLpIeifP-eGgyqd8U1u4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080=20
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909=20
36499793 36859739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032249
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Central IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032245Z - 040430Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching from the southwest will
produce additional heavy rainfall over northern IA and southeast
MN that saw rainfall recently over the past 24 hours. With soils
growing increasingly saturated, localized flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Rounds of thunderstorms continue to develop just east
of the MO River as moist southwesterly flow at low levels
intersects the 850mb front oriented from western IA on north and
east into far southeast MN. Strong low-level WAA north of the warm
front is allowing for as much as 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over central
IA. Another round of storms on the northern periphery of the
surface low will continue to race north and east over the next few
hours in an environment that sports >1.25" PWs, which are above
the 99th climatological percentile into central IA.

Soils within the highlighted region were already coming into today
a little more saturated thanks to yesterday's rainfall. NASA
SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles in north-central IA
were above 80% saturation coming into today. MRMS shows 3-hr QPE
from just north of Des Moines on north and east have received an
additional 0.5" of rainfall (locally higher totals too). Most
hourly rainfall rates are less than 1"/hr, but as the low deepens
and WAA increases, warm cloud layers will also deepen and warm
rain processes will make for more efficient rainfall rates that
could approach 1"/hr. Latest 1hr FFGs are as low as 1"/hr in
central IA. Flash flooding is possible, particularly along and
just north of the warm front and the track of the surface low
where a better source of instability is present. Locations most
at-risk to flash flooding are poor drainage areas and spots where
soils are beginning to struggle soaking in recent rainfall.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_r_IuqUMUIjk7Ch6sdo2ZPzGX-yKrltvOs3UOyWDa5oCCDftKcQQGGNHMWCbK50e-3YC= iIzHNj7H21Uytp12tVR17xs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43809169 43159133 42369175 41029340 40949450=20
41969505 42589467 43089354 43729249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032200
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central IL...Western IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032200Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along and north of a warm front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates. With
prolonged, moist southwesterly flow expected to intersect the
front for several hours, flash flooding is likely through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar shows scattered thunderstorms having
formed along a warm front that extends from the strengthening area
of low pressure in northwest MO eastward into northern OH.
Low-level southwesterly flow is providing healthy theta-e and
moisture advection while MLCAPE along and just south of the warm
front is >2,000 J/kg. PWs are forecast to surpass 1.5" this
evening, which is above the 99th climatological percentile for
early-mid April. Meanwhile, sheared shortwave energy racing north
from the South Central U.S. will provide additional synoptic scale
lift aloft later this evening. Vertical wind profiles will favor
supercells with >40 kts of effective bulk shear and up to 200
m2/s2 of SRH. As storm form along the front, persistent inflow
into the warm front as it slowly moves north gives rise to
back-building and training storms, increasing concerns for longer
residency times for these storms.

Latest 18Z HREF shows moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall
totals >2" in north-central IL. This is supported by the 21Z WoFS
using cumulative >2" paint balls through 03Z. There are several
CAMs members (RRFS, NSSL-MPAS, 20Z HRRR) that shows this cluster
of storms having the potential to produce localized rainfall
amounts >4" through this evening. 1-hr FFGs are generally below
1.5" for the majority of the at-risk region, and even 3-hr FFGs
are <2" (less than 1.5" on the southern periphery of the
Chicagoland area). The southern tier of Chicagoland could contend
with excessive rainfall this evening as elevated instability moves
northward and the storms lift northward with the warm front.

With concerns for training and back-building storms in an
atmospheric environment suitable to generate up to 2"/hr rainfall
rates, cases of flash flooding are likely in parts of central and
northern IL, and potentially in western IN this evening. Should
those >4" amounts on various CAMs come to fruition, locally
significant flash flooding could unfold. Poor drainage areas and
urbanized communities are most vulnerable to flash flooding this
evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Zqm5EQ8QJ4eq_dcSvuMqxde5ctbOiPbRtt4oF45VVxHWWHl6sfIkyj0o4kWhAQPiZLT= Tld5yLbJaYh2F-PYKE5BD7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41768809 41418739 40948612 40618601 40098627=20
40018747 39918909 39659073 39979130 40539086=20
40919006 41388917=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040131
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-040729-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040129Z - 040729Z

SUMMARY...Additional training thunderstorms producing hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr remain possible through the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms located along and just south of a warm
front are also forming along a narrow outflow boundary to the
south. Storms in northern OH have produced over 2" of rainfall in
some spots per MRMS QPE and one LSR southwest of Canton reporting
2 feet of water over a road. Rounds upon rounds of storms are
likely to continue from eastern IN and northern OH to as far east
as the WV Panhandle and southeast PA this evening. RAP
mesoanalysis continues to show at least 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE
available, effective bulk shear up to 30 kts, and anomalous PWs
between 1.25-1.5" at these storms disposal.

1-hr FFGs have decreased to as low as 1" in parts of northern OH
with all areas effectively below 1.5" thanks to this afternoon's
thunderstorm activity. 00Z HRRR continues to suggest the
persistent westerly 850-300mb mean layer winds aloft and low-level
winds supplying rich theta-e into the front will create a steady
diet of storms through the rest of the evening. 00Z HRRR 6-hr QPF
shows an additional 1-2" of rainfall are possible with localized
amounts over 3" possible between now and 08Z tonight. Given the
current state of ongoing flash flooding in the area, and more
excessive rainfall to come, additional flash flooding is likely.
Locally significant flash flooding is possible where another 1-2"
of rainfall occurs in areas that are already dealing with flash
flooding. Note that flooded roadways will be more difficult for
motorists to identify with the sun having now set. Motorists
should exercise caution if they must be on the roads tonight.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QCHH8OMPmGnSUAQ6cvwhTQNlISQOO_u7xsNTki7vtduQ6Yfb8xqYks-ICD21qvewlZx= D--TDlxavanM4ZMdv7ipPA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218275 40998150 40778103 40268116 40118298=20
40358467 40628531 40898531 41188402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040259
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040857-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040257Z - 040857Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue for the next few
hours along the Red River Valley, north Texas, and central/eastern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Recent radar depicts an expanding convective complex
over central Oklahoma, with embedded supercellular structures near
Shawnee, OK. This complex has recently produced 1-2 inch rainfall
totals over Oklahoma City metro over the past hour, with moderate
to high MRMS Flash responses suggesting likely urban flash
flooding in the area. The complex was moving eastward at an
appreciable pace (around 30 knots) toward
less-sensitive/less-urban ground conditions, which may result in
flash flood potential becoming more isolated with time. However,
increasing low-level flow over eastern Oklahoma was contributing
to an increase in deep convection ahead of this complex, with
mergers likely to support continued 1-2 inch/hr rates at times for
at least the next couple of hours along and south of the I-40
corridor. Some training on the southwestern flank of this complex
could also spread flash flood potential into the Ada, OK vicinity
over the next 1-3 hours as well.

Convection was also developing upstream along a southward-moving
front through southwest Oklahoma and the Childress, TX area. The
speed of the front should limit the degree of repeating/training
convection here, and rainfall should occur over areas that have
been relatively dry. Isolated flash flooding is possible in low
spots where repeating can bump hourly totals above the 1-1.5 inch
range.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RR8Dwgx8Nc6M0A0rRRc7lEvTSp3Pc66kG1RjhwnissW-lHQcxBIxMjkCg_OVqBeydr1= NmrwFennnqw1AwUhDLDp2w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359490 35139451 33999530 32909765 33140060=20
33670158 34770059 35119820 35499746 36219682=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040417
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5oGpcz_H95CrQ9P7DD1e772UzfPY8quem7gDqTHIPQBUNM21ddfJCYfx4tetiuCdKC1o= 5UVg3ubnlawvUTe_1gpyKOc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040420
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95o1G44xhRAXek0_2DYk6pSIAZkkVhqDAI9oXcEzGf0JY7r_gN5CB_WeznGwL5J4COD_= ZWGH3d-nvcGE_myqltzA_K4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...North-Central LA...Southern
AR...Western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041901Z - 050101Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across much of the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Areas with persistent training cells could get 1
inch/30 minute rainfall rates, which could result in a few
instances of flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in convection developing along
and ahead of a strong cold front. Multiple broken line segments of
pre-frontal storms have developed well ahead of the main line
across much of central and northern Louisiana, and also across the
northwestern half of Mississippi. These storms are starting to
convectively train, leading to enhanced rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour, and in some instances an inch in under 30 minutes
where cell mergers happen. This will moisten the soils before the
main line of convection approaches with the front later this
afternoon and evening.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches through 00Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. Although recent dry conditions across much of
the region is a mitigating factor, the higher rainfall rates may
be enough to result in a few instances of flooding, with a greater
potential for this across urban locations.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TJ5Yo_BSMsrzRQZKvYUNRSR_uJFpYLZ3vmsP37NhCSEIVqSUE_Ps1NeodLAbn1FmHOR= 1J2GOMXYqyotTJXZK116pzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34009043 33878966 33038933 31229040 30609073=20
30419127 30769249 30769317 30659377 30399455=20
30019552 29779623 29599690 29809730 30049737=20
30439708 30819659 31309628 31709580 31949548=20
32179511 32539463 32809414 33029372 33239315=20
33349270 33429238 33569207 33669169 33859109=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern LA and South-Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050125Z - 050500Z

Summary...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
much of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi through the
remainder of the evening hours, including extreme southeast Texas.
Areas with persistent training cells could get 1 inch/30 minute
rainfall rates, which could result in a few instances of flooding
through midnight.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating widespread convection along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. There are several multi-cell clusters that
have developed ahead of the main swath of convection associated
with the cold front, and these are aligned in the general low
level SSW winds and have been training over the past few hours.
Many locations across central Louisiana and central Mississippi
have already picked up 1-2 inches of rain over the past 6 hours,
and locally higher, therefore making the soils more saturated and
susceptible to potential flooding issues.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 5Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. This activity should generally diminish in
intensity going into the overnight hours as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n9bWHs3DcmJI-CImz_pLZablPamVMzuhPYprk6cRUQCVqx1EJYLMgrvMwg8I9H8V1ET= 1swjHN2IRCxAozGJzLikTOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32978902 32908865 32708847 32308846 31608863=20
30838893 30148940 29799008 29729157 29749267=20
29929312 29999321 29999321 30389328 30679311=20
31149258 31689172 32199099 32609030 32918956=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050209
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050508-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050208Z - 050508Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection should eventually spread
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into McAllen, TX and vicinity through
04-05Z.

Discussion...Deep convection has become increasingly organized
across primary rural areas of Deep South Texas over the area. The
storms are focused along an inverted surface trough extending into
the area from northeastern Mexico, with light southeasterly
low-level flow maintaining a surface airmass characterized by 80s
F surface temps/70s F dewpoints into that axis. Storms were
becoming more organized and developing cold pools/weak
supercellular structures, which isn't surprising given directional
shear through the troposphere. Southward propagation of this
cluster should spread areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into the
McAllen, Texas area and vicinity, where urbanized surfaces may
pose a risk of flash flooding as the cells move through.

The overall synoptic scenario supporting heavy rainfall should
change little through 05Z or so as the weak inverted trough
persists and weak mid-level waves traverse the area. The
longevity of convection along the Rio Grande is a bit uncertain
and highly dependent on the local evolution of convection in that
area, which should be relatively slow given weak wind fields aloft.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-PGiJtHrnrSTk1OIvgeZk0r5sWUOI26gjZ65SduasNkLAfkKNnkwDeGtAD4f9eftZcj= WdMnKW9T-MaPgYhBOS0pi_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26999850 26729741 25969739 26229887 26599905=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062105Z - 070200Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage through the early evening hours across central Florida
near an approaching cold front. High rainfall rates up to 2
inches/30 minutes may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in slow moving thunderstorms
across inland portions of the central Florida Peninsula late this
afternoon. Several multi-cell clusters have been exhibiting signs
of back-building over the past 1-2 hours, and these are producing
outflow boundaries that will converge to generate additional slow
moving convection that may be heavier that what is currently
happening now. The environment is favorable for storms with high
rainfall rates given mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg, PWs near 1.7 inches, and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear
per the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Recent CAM guidance through 2Z is portraying the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3-5 inches with the most
persistent convection, and much of this is likely to fall within a
two hour time period for any given location. HREF neighborhood
exceedance probabilities of 3-hourly flash flood guidance are up
to roughly 30% between Orlando and Fort Myers, and there are some
low-end probabilities of 6-hour QPF reaching 100-year ARI for some
of these areas. Although this area is in a drought, the high
sub-hourly rainfall rates could be enough to overcome this
limitation and result in some instances of flash flooding through
10 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BCj-gL5y9Bht0KzO_qMa0emd3AmRjhExfsZOqRQ83_UtP26mbOpcV8kNYOWVCsm1DKi= ZcoPmWSl9HSE7FJnwRjG05M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28858171 28788116 28518087 28058066 27598059=20
27328077 27158090 26968105 26688088 26268101=20
26218148 26438174 27118228 27568238 28028244=20
28358242 28568237 28788213=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081826
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081825Z - 090025Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a history of
rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour are impacting portions of the
Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida, with increasing concerns for
impacts over sensitive urban areas. Flash flooding is possible
where the cells are the most persistent through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Persistently moist and relatively unstable low-level
easterly flow continues to focus areas of showers and some
occasional thunderstorms into the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Much
of the activity is aligned with the low-level steering flow and
has been focusing near the offshore Gulf Stream with extensions
westward into areas mainly south of Melbourne and especially areas
just north of Stuart where convection is more concentrated. More
scattered activity is situated farther south down the coast into
the I-95 urban corridor of southeast Florida.

Despite the relatively scattered nature of the coverage, with
southwesterly flow aloft (as opposed to easterly flow in the lower
levels), the extreme directional shear present across Florida is
making an environment favorable for slow-moving and training
storms. Daytime heating is also allowing for instability to
increase, currently ranging from 2,000 J/kg near Miami to near
1,500 J/kg near Melbourne based on SPC Mesoanalysis. Atmospheric
moisture also ranges from 1.7" PWAT near Miami to 1.4" near
Melbourne. Thus, the greatest threat for the heaviest rains are
further south down I-95.

Multiple days of rainfall across all of southern Florida this past
week has sufficiently saturated the soils. Thus, expect much of
any heavy rainfall today to favor increased runoff. Ultimately any
impacts and the magnitudes thereof will be dependent on where any
training cells develop relative to how urban the ground underneath
the cells is. With rates in the strongest cells later this
afternoon expected to potentially reach 3 inches/hour, localized
totals to 6 inches can't be ruled out. This in turn would result
in localized flooding. Regardless, expect that the storms that
will be capable of flash flooding to remain isolated to widely
scattered.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7reFGpJjrW38AH1Upf3utPD1RP59anTYXGOCvwwonvVJOkizU1tqghWCW4TM6SECp_jb= F2MXRT9fT1GHYMWwAo3DhII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028067 27988037 26947997 25957994 25598022=20
25498051 25708057 26008045 26288039 26648033=20
26938037 27298050 27528056 27828068=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...east-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091017Z - 091500Z

Summary...Slow moving showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
are expected to focus isolated areas of heavy rain along the Space
and Treasure coasts through late morning. Localized hourly
rainfall of 2+ inches will be possible with storm totals of 2 to
4+ inches through 15Z, which may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed scattered
showers between southern Brevard County and southern St. Lucie
County. 10.3 micron satellite imagery indicated cloud tops over
land were relatively warm at -20 to -35 C, with an estimated cloud
depth of 9 km AGL based on RAP analysis soundings over the region.
Easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer were oriented
perpendicular to the coast while mid-upper level flow was from the
west at a similar magnitude. This has set up favorable effective
shear profiles for organized cells although 0-8 km AGL mean layer
winds were about 5 kt or less, resulting in slow cell movement. In
addition, the alignment of showers with the low level wind has
also resulted in slow movement of heavy rain cores at times with
recent development near Vero Beach showing signs of a weak MCV
over eastern Indian River County. MRMS-derived and KVRB hourly
rainfall of 2-2.5 inches has been observed with nearly 2 inches of
rain in 32 minutes at KVRB ending 0940Z. Speed and weak
directional convergence near the surface was allowing for the
formation of quasi-transient bands of heavy rain within an
expanding pocket of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg (06Z-10Z SPC
mesoanalyses) over the east coast of FL.

While the future existence of the weak meso-vortex near Vero Beach
is unknown, convergence in the surface to near-surface layer is
expected to continue a threat for slow moving showers with
embedded thunderstorms from Brevard County down to St. Lucie
County over the next 3-5 hours. However, the concentration of
heavy rain is expected to remain limited in spatial extent through
the morning hours. Any areas of flash flooding that develop are
likely to focus across urban and other areas of poor draining,
remaining localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mIL8BFa2gasaYWoyUi5qRG3Of1RRU_n9PRYp394FRPLoJ3dKXYY6S7SbSiGb2zS-sgD= TGJYn7ZaxolHVDjniKRixg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28608054 27788010 27008004 26998066 27908111=20
28528112=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100134
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
932 PM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100133Z - 100730Z

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of organizing supercellular convection
into a multi-cell cluster/MCS will promote a localized and
primarily urban flash flood threat going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and GOES-E IR satellite imagery
depict a cluster of supercells along a slow-moving cold front near
the KS/NE border. These storms are undergoing upscale growth, with
supporting factors including fairly strong effective bulk shear of
to 40 to 50 kts and MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. Over the last
hour, this has favored an expansion of deep, cold convective tops
and intense updrafts.

As the 850 mb low-level jet veers and intensifies to over 40 kts
over the next several hours, low-level convergence will sharpen
along the western and southern flanks of the convective mass. With
storm motions of 15 to 25 kts generally parallel to the mean flow
and the boundary, periods of cell-training and cell-mergers are
expected. This will compensate for modest PWs of about 1.25 inches
and drive potential for high rainfall rates that may reach 1.5 to
2.5 inches/hour within the strongest cores and where any
cell-mergers occur.

While NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil moisture indicates significant
infiltration capacity in rural northeast KS, the 18Z HREF PMM and
neighborhood probabilities suggest localized 2 to 4 inch totals
are likely. These totals will approach and may locally exceed FFG
values and especially within the more sensitive urban corridors.
Areas downstream including Topeka, Kansas City and St. Joseph may
eventually see this activity later in the night. As such, the
concern over the next several hours, aside from well-defined
severe hazards with large hail, will be a localized and mainly
urban flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_V7P-J8QajZr8lmjAAmMYppb9LFmhtmko5uyNfAQNigk4X-nlxLjoH4L5j2wU9TvIs0M= nU_APk1NO-Lbst4Tpg4ANoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40059625 39869477 39589418 38989419 38569493=20
38389618 38599761 38989810 39639790=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101901
FFGMPD
OKZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101900Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...Locally training areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will pose a threat for some urban flash flooding
going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery becoming aligned in a general west to east
fashion across portions of north-central to northeast OK in close
proximity to a quasi-stationary front. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms are becoming a bit more concentrated with this
activity, and the latest radar trends suggest slow cell-motions
and some increasing cell-training concerns.

The activity is being facilitated by moist and unstable low-level
southwest flow into the boundary with MLCAPE values of as much as
1500 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region.
Despite relatively modest kinematic wind fields, there is an axis
of moderate moisture convergence in vicinity of the front, and
this coupled with increasing differential heating/instability near
the axis of convection should tend to sustain the convective
threat over the next few hours.

Generally the antecedent conditions are quite dry, with low soil
moisture content, but the rainfall rates with some of the ongoing
activity is already locally near 1.5 inches/hour. This coupled
with the slow cell-motions may favor some short-term totals of 2
to 4+ inches going through early this evening.

An isolated and mainly urban threat of flash flooding will exist
over the next few hours as a result, and this will include areas
from near Stillwater to Tulsa and along with adjacent communities.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OMNe7bjzHGDuwRqcrOJ2shcTqUhlC8m8hS1dASOvDqJHGktya8xtEnuVl08ZovWkQ9-= eoQLKiJCVgHcmzqf1PHbDHk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36599485 36349471 35939536 35829684 35999767=20
36369765 36489701 36469622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102142
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas including the Houston
Metropolitan area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102141Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving, outflow-driven thunderstorms interacting
over highly urbanized areas will be capable of producing localized
rainfall rates of 2+ inches/hour. Isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches
may rapidly overwhelm municipal drainage, making localized flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends depict scattered,
slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms developing across southeast
Texas. The thermodynamic environment is characterized by a moist,
weakly convergent low-level flow off the Gulf of America, with
PWATs near 1.75 inches and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. While
deep-layer shear remains weak (effective bulk shear 20-30 kts),
weak upper-level divergence is supplying modest deep-layer ascent,
aiding in some maintenance of robust, high-efficiency updrafts.

Given the weak steering flow, the convective mode is primarily
pulse-type and outflow-dominant. The immediate flash flood threat
will be driven by mesoscale boundary interactions. Regional radar
currently shows multiple outflow boundaries in play?most notably
one positioned southwest of the Houston metro and another near
IAH. As these boundaries interact over the next few hours,
mechanical lift may force rapid, near-stationary convective
development and upscale growth directly over more sensitive urban
locations.

Rainfall rates have already approached 2 inches/hour with the
strongest cells. High-resolution guidance, particularly the HRRR
which has initialized the current convective evolution well,
suggests these boundary collisions will support isolated
additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches through early this
evening. Furthermore, the 12Z HREF highlights 10-30% probabilities
for 3-hour FFG exceedance this over the next several hours. Given
the high impervious surface coverage across the Houston metro,
these rates and accumulations may overwhelm local drainage systems
and bayous, leading to isolated areas of rapid-onset urban flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UfP-FaEBTsYZq-U1BJISNdMdxS4kIjqF_7XutdEJFcVHfKrrsDx-b0npcVgfvZAwJZw= 5TdXzeXil7_qMLwkC4AGQLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31059623 30659519 30319469 29999457 29479462=20
28919531 28909635 29599753 30359774 30939727=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110515
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and
the MO Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110507Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible from portions
of northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and the MO Valley
through 10Z. Brief training of thunderstorms will be capable of
1-2 in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage
across north-central KS into far southern NE as seen on area radar
imagery through 05Z. The cells were elevated, displaced well north
of a west-east oriented quasi-stationary front in OK, within an
airmass containing 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE per 05Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Since 00Z, Southerly 850 mb winds have been strengthening
with 30-40 kt in place at 05Z per VAD wind data from northern OK
into southern NE. PWAT values were estimated to be between 1.0 and
1.3 inches across the central Plains with continued moisture
advection likely to increase PWAT values into the MO River Valley
through the night.

Some additional strengthening of the 850 mb flow into the 40-45 kt
range across KS is expected over the next 3-4 hours and the
approach of a weak shortwave impulse over southwestern KS should
continue an increasing trend in the coverage of elevated
showers/thunderstorms from northeastern KS into
southern/southeastern NE over the next few hours. As 850 mb winds
increase overnight, some veering of the low level flow is also
expected, bringing the low level wind orientation closer to the
mean steering flow from the SW. Given the moisture, instability
and forecast winds, some instances of training are likely to
result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. These higher rates
should remain limited in coverage but flash flood guidance is at
or below 2 inches in 3 hours for much of the region, due in part
to locally heavy rainfall over the past 36 hours. Therefore,
localized flash flooding may result overnight with 1 to 3+ inch
total rainfall possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48qr4XsdiFtClShi6w-ZrnC2lWuijYOSz66OvZpJ5YDM_U5fNmZMtF-REmLIPl0U20QT= 1Yeb5phRPebNuvpJ0GHXGlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41329712 41299612 41169573 40809531 40499501=20
40259485 39909472 39469469 39099484 38789510=20
38589566 38619653 39009760 39669878 40339891=20
40899846=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110955
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110953Z - 111330Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will linger for another
few hours from northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO. The primary concern will be from
repeating/training of thunderstorms which will be capable of 1 to
2+ in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...A NW to SE axis of thunderstorms was observed on
radar imagery at 0930Z from the KS/NE border near Superior, NE to
near Westmoreland in northeastern KS. The slow moving axis has
been associated with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches over the past couple of hours but the axis of thunderstorms
appears to be slowly shifting northeast. 850 mb winds of 3o to 40+
kt continued to overrun a warm front slowly lifting north from
central OK with an axis of elevated convergence helping to focus
the cluster of heavy rain beneath a ridge axis aloft locally
aiding diffluent flow in the upper levels. A subtle shortwave was
also observed on water vapor imagery earlier in the night and is
likely approaching central KS with forecast movement toward the
northeast, around the ridge, helping to support lift.

850 mb wind speed magnitudes have likely peaked and recent RAP
forecasts showed gradual weakening through 15Z following the
diurnal cycle. However, ~25 to 35 kt of SSW 850 mb winds over
eastern KS will continue to overrun the surface boundary to the
south and the weak shortwave impulse approaching central KS from
the southwest will continue to provide ascent from northeastern KS
into the MO River Valley. Instability will be a limiting factor as
current values of MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg are forecast to
lower as moisture advection shifts the instability eastward across
the MO River.

The axis of heavy rain will likely translate eastward over the
next few hours with continued periods of training/repeating cells
with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall rates. This will continue to pose a
localized threat for flash flooding from northeastern
KS/southeastern NE into northwestern MO and possibly southwestern
IA. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through 14Z
with locally higher flash flood potential where overlap occurs
with wet antecedent conditions over northeastern KS due to locally
heavy rain over the past 36 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QQxASh5-vvLIyl0bOPmA5lpyQV8ph24pEYcquvTGWv9coFrhCZ5EnwIYxnrAS6KQ6_k= hg_4xliiOI76F61lkLRs1XE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41019522 40889393 40389350 39719368 39169441=20
39049551 39189654 39689754 40029835 40609801=20
40819704=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111337
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111336Z - 111636Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates will maintain the threat of localized flash flooding for
another few hours, primarily over portions of northeastern Kansas.

Discussion...Regional radar this morning continues to track a west
to east axis of training thunderstorms within a slow moving MCS
near the Kansas-Nebraska border. Recent MRMS estimated hourly
rainfall rates have eclipsed 2"/hr at times in the heaviest cells
at times. When combined with the slow net movement of the complex
(Corfidi Vectors are around 10-15 kts), 4-5" of rainfall led to at
least three reports of flash flood impacts in northern Kansas this
morning.

As highlighted earlier, the activity remains tied to a 35-40kt
low-level jet which is bisecting a west-east oriented cold pool
and synoptic front amid locally diffluent flow aloft. Radar
imagery also suggests the presence of a weak MCV embedded in the
complex which could locally enhance ascent in the area. Over the
next few hours, the RAP suggests 30-35 kts of 850 mb inflow
bisecting the west-east boundary could maintain the complex for a
few more hours, even with modest instability in place (~500 J/kg
MUCAPE). Much of the overnight CAM guidance has struggled with the
placement and intensity of this complex. However, the ARW seems to
have a better handle on the current activity and suggests the
training axis could persist for the next few hours. As such, the
threat of localized flash flooding will persist this morning, with
an additional 1-2" of rain possible.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JDOHnwHVyoR9jvHIv4Dnizxwzt84oyH6DeI-4eZAhUKsKh7HBFJN6Ci6MbF7c57gFaW= ya8_oxZmjL-r0Fiq-jZ10xE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40259601 40219520 40019439 39599433 39489490=20
39379618 39389653 39449696 39759714 39979690=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120226-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112026Z - 120226Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
are possible into this evening, which could lead to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A region of 850 hPa confluence is slowly moving
across western TX. Convection across the TX Big Bend is sending
out an outflow boundary to the east. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25". An incoming shortwave is moving across northwest
Mexico, enhancing difluence aloft and increasing the effective
bulk shear to 25-45 kts. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and rising.

With time, the area of 850 hPa confluence edges eastward across
portions of the TX Big Bend, Trans Pecos, and northwest TX. The
GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies that increasing convective
coverage and intensity should maximize in the 00z-03z time frame.=20
The shifting of the low-level confluence axis should keep amounts
from becoming particularly extreme. The available ingredients
suggest that hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to
4" would be possible in this environment. Since Flash Flood
Guidance is modest, widely scattered flash flooding impacts are
considered possible. Urban areas and locations with minimal top
soil in western portions of South-Central TX would be most
sensitive to these rainfall rates/amounts.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6S6CodPXk1xunr7JwSe-qfaJRSzvcJUN_gfh9rSEMdEsInWsF0bToaBGQrG4Q__GFerO= bHIbaYGzFZOD7tsUELiUuZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34550074 34309932 33279892 32129929 31020003=20
29800112 29510153 29590244 29080278 28910311=20
29070379 29560431 31090307 33270244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120257
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into the
Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120252Z - 120715Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce areas of
flash flooding from portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into
the Edwards Plateau over the next 4-5 hours. Peak hourly rainfall
could exceed 2 or 3 inches at times.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0230Z showed a broken line
of strong convection extending from near SJT to the Rio Grande,
roughly halfway between 6R6 and DRT. This line has been
propagating slowly toward the east but northern portions of the
line have been quicker to translate east compared to southern
portions. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall briefly exceeded 2 inches
along the Rio Grande in Val Verde County within the past hour due
to training as the NNE to SSW line orientation aligns with the
mean steering flow.

Large scale ascent ahead of an upper trough axis tracking across
AZ/NM and northwestern Mexico will continue over central TX
overnight and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast to remain in place
(higher values to the south) which should help to fuel intense
cores of heavy rain. A strengthening low level jet with speeds of
30-40 kt, oriented parallel to the Rio Grande, will act to
transport moisture into the ongoing complex with the slowest
movement of the convective line likely to remain near the Rio
Grande, though brief hangups farther north will continue to remain
possible, supportive of SSW to NNE training. The moisture rich
environment with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and increasingly
divergent/diffluent flow ahead of the upper trough will aid lift
and allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but locally exceeding
2 or perhaps 3 inches at times. While the best potential for the
highest rain rates will remain toward the south, these higher
rates may overlap with portions of the Edwards Plateau which
contain greater sensitivity to flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8TCPlAIuJOCoKdzncLt3D4dOp7-uC7Z02-DnORb5M7WF4hNu72dCxZYm4zIwjG3KZecP= Ar1IoDWt7NLkNFlA8tY8-OM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31779963 31379895 30349869 29649894 28929998=20
28780081 29060090 29510140 29640177 30060169=20
31190070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...north-central TX into south-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120419Z - 120920Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible from north-central TX into south-central
OK through 09Z. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
will be possible with 2 to 4 inches in 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed the northern portion of a
convective line moving into the Edwards Plateau was getting
slightly better organized over the past hour as it moved eastward
across I-20. Instability was on the weak side with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data and the 00Z FWD
sounding, along with PWs near 1.5 inches near and south of the Red
River. Water vapor imagery showed a couple of weaker vorticity
maxima over western TX, ahead of the main upper level shortwave
trough axis across northwestern Mexico which will continue to
provide ascent into the weakly unstable airmass downstream across
central TX into OK tonight.

RAP forecast guidance showed favorably diffluent flow aloft
maintaining over central TX into southern OK through 12Z Sunday.
Expectations are for the current axis of thunderstorms to continue
slowly advancing NNE and E ahead of the upper forcing to the west,
with transient axes of training helping to support 1 to 2+ in/hr
rain rates and possible flash flooding. While the main concern for
higher rates will be with the leading edge of the convective line,
there will be some potential for locally higher rates/training to
refocus to the west of the line as it shifts downstream due to the
diffluent flow aloft and an upstream impulse advancing
northeastward toward the Trans Pecos region of western TX as seen
on water vapor imagery.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_-Q2hwEx7KarPBlHVSKjNr9BaEBTzQF2g4CKp3yUTtW7BuT45-6zIl9IGBqLsyjXz7B= olzEoDsYjDrWAyUfbyocJiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35979748 35879671 35639634 35089609 34309618=20
33629639 32879660 31959737 31309902 31389998=20
32180015 33440001 34719940 35699834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120831
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...Middle Rio Grande Valley into central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120828Z - 121330Z

SUMMARY...While the threat is not certain, the potential for at
least localized flash flooding will continue across the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX this morning. The
possibility of peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will linger
through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar imagery showed a weakening squall line over
central TX, moving east toward I-35, north of Austin, where a
relative lull in instability was estimated over central TX via 08Z
SPC mesoanalysis data (peaking near 500 J/kg MLCAPE) while
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained west of I-35 and south of I-10
within the middle Rio Grande Valley. The orientation of the
remnant squall line or outflow boundary was from NE to SW across
the Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, generally
aligned with the mean steering flow, resulting in less forward
motion for the southern portion of the outflow boundary. Isolated
convective activity was observed north of the outflow boundary and
south of the Rio Grande over northern Coahuila's Serranias del
Burro.

VAD wind plots showed that 35-40 kt of 850 mb southerly inflow
remained over the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards Plateau
and atop the rain-cooled outflow boundary. Meanwhile, water vapor
imagery showed an approaching lead shortwave trough over the Big
Bend Country, advancing northeastward. Lift ahead of this feature
was evidenced by the recent shower/thunderstorm development over
northern Coahuila. It seems plausible that additional development
may occur along the southwestern flank of outflow, tied to the
eastward translating MCS over central TX with mean steering flow
supporting training from SW to NE, within the lingering
instability max. Aloft, a 90-110 kt upper level jet streak is
forecast to cross the Rio Grande and advance into western OK
through the morning hours, placing favorable right-entrance region
ascent over the Edwards Plateau. In addition, RAP forecasts showed
largely uninhibited MLCAPE returning northward back across eastern
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the I-35 corridor this morning
due to continued low level moisture transport. Therefore, while
coverage of additional thunderstorms remains unclear, at least a
localized flash flood threat will continue over the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX through at least 13Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3FlNpW6BRCKRKImp4hH3qvBATr_8e3WL0zq0GV47pVlRjal9jyjHcjYCG8Ay8XtKy5l= 5F2VyGGL6b2WxpXiEWjjrEo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31999652 31529594 30669610 30109658 29399760=20
28769895 28629991 28650054 28770069 29250104=20
29710163 30460033 31119904 31969747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121619
FFGMPD
TXZ000-122217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121617Z - 122217Z

Summary...Increasing potential for flash flooding this afternoon
as thunderstorms containing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates develop in the
next 2-3 hours and congeal into an MCS. Locally significant flash
flooding is possible, especially atop sensitive urban areas in the
region.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are showing increased
development across South-Central Texas late this morning as a very
moist airmass continues to destabilize. An intense, localized
cluster of thunderstorms near Gonzales county recently exhibited
2.5-3"/hr rainfall rates according to MRMS and KEWX. When combined
with slow forward motions around 20 kts, a corridor of FFG
exceedance was noted over the last 15 minutes.=20

These early storms are tapping into a very favorable environment
for efficient heavy rainfall production; 12Z RAOB from BRO and
ACARS profiles from AUS and SAT depict a deep moist layer from the
surface to 750 mb (PWAT of 1.7-1.8"), tall instability profiles
characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and WBZ heights over
3500 m. An inversion above the moist layer has thus far suppressed
more widespread development, although this is expected to weaken
over time as large scale ascent strengthens over the next few
hours while the column continues to moisten.

As such, thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage and
intensity over the next few hours. By 17-18z, the 12z CAM suite is
in good agreement for this activity to congeal into an MCS
containing training thunderstorms along a NE-SW axis -- possibly
along a remnant cold pool evident in surface obs. Forecast Corfidi
vectors near 10 kts suggest this complex will be quite slow to
move once it develops, in turn lengthening the residence time of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates within the strongest individual cells.
While the area has been dry according to NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles, the risk of flash flooding is expected to increase
over the next 6 hours as 3-6" fall in the main axis of training.
Significant flash flooding is possible should this fall over a
sensitive urban area.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l5fxvgg0Ga24XrcAiL7fdIFH_5gslDM_qZveZxQ_cc0YwW17qlWHwCr4bDlkiesKVsA= EMVZR837bFWVyXMVWomDxKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31379590 30859516 29989564 29049725 28959831=20
29579882 30369847 31079733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122016Z - 130216Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of central TX. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding over partially saturated soils.

Discussion...The combination of shortwaves aloft crossing the
TX/OK border and northern Mexico have led to a difluent pattern
aloft across the region. Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.8"
per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of ~50 kts exists. ML CAPE is
around 2000 J/kg (higher to the west and lower to the east).

Inflow at 850 hPa slowly backs with time as the upper level
shortwave in northern MX approaches, which along with no
additional eastward progress in the instability gradient should
hold up forward forward propagation to the northeast. The 12z
GFS-based Galvez-Davison index implies that the current convective
uptick maximizes in the 21-00z period before slowly fading
thereafter in this area. Both the 12z HREF and 12z REFS have a
heavy rainfall signal across the region, though of differing
magnitudes. Given the above ingredients which favor mesocyclone
formation and cell training, along with the possibility that
storms of different levels of organization could merge, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. Given the
recently compromised flash flood guidance values due to recent
heavy rainfall, scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j2UxM1SGtHNsq_QI1ob82WzX2FdtDrZMFk4nPqkt6h33-miTPan9qw8F2P0QPMkg4eY= Z1hEz4csPMkB4OnF9cs_Ej8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32359813 32339732 31189682 29479732 29309826=20
30019894 31669899=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130259-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122059Z - 130259Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with some level of organization will
continue to attempt to train into this evening. Hourly amounts to
3" with additional local totals to 5" are possible, which could
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have been moving
east-northeast inland of the Middle & Upper TX Coasts near the
tail end of an MCV moving through portions of MO, which shows up
as an eastward branch of the 850 hPa inflow/convergence. Earlier
this afternoon, hourly rain amounts were quite high, though
they've settled back towards 2.5-3" as of late. Precipitable
water values are 1.8-2" per GPS data. ML CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts which is organizing convection.

Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF are at least a county too far
inland with this convective activity. While their six hour
probabilities show a tendency for the activity to approach the
TX/LA border, the REFS hourly probabilities in particular are
fairly far to the east/too quick when compared to recent radar
reflectivity imagery. A combination of cell training and embedded
mesocyclones appear to be the main cause for heavy rainfall in
this region, though merging convection cannot be ruled out could
any cells form south of the band and approach it. ML CAPE
supports the idea of this activity making a run for the LA border,
but with decreasing instability with time, there could be a
tendency for increased forward propagation/decreased precipitation
amounts with time. With somewhat higher instability to the north
the farther east you go in this region, thunderstorm activity may
try to correct towards the 18z HREF solution and edge a little
more northward as well. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional
local totals to 5" remain possible, which could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5nMBgV5t9cCt79LlQETJWpm7K6GjQ240BRaV-E-svg4sWr9O9XPQSrTHrurNmmfxbRjA= aPMRiPqOIy0SlzDTLr2vtxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31319378 30159385 29649511 29629620 29979635=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130324
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130322Z - 130700Z

Summary...A small, slow moving cluster of thunderstorms is
expected to maintain peak rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr and
localized flash flooding across portions of central TX over the
next 2-4 hours. Afterward, eastward translation and weakening is
anticipated.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery showed a small thunderstorm cluster
over and just west of the Colorado River in San Saba and Llano
counties. This cluster has had a history of backbuilding and
training with observed hourly rainfall of 2.5 inches and
MRMS-derived estimates locally over 3 inches over San Saba County.
It was located just on the cool side of an elongated, remnant
outflow boundary from earlier on Sunday that extended from near
New Braunfels into the Hill Country and northward across I-20,
just east of Abilene. Water vapor imagery showed a number of
vorticity maxima embedded within the WSW flow aloft. At 03Z, a
more notable vorticity max was located just northeast of San
Antonio, with another more subtle feature over Concho and Menard
counties, west of the ongoing thunderstorms.

Expectations are for low level flow overrunning the outflow to
continue to support thunderstorms over portions of central TX
within a moderately unstable airmass characterized by 1500 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches (SPC mesoanalysis).
However, passage of the vorticity maxima/shortwave features aloft
should cause the ongoing activity to shift east in another couple
of hours while additional development occurs downstream toward the
east, with eventual weakening as increasing CIN is encountered
toward the east. There is some uncertainty with exactly how long
the backbuilding signature will continue over San Saba and Llano
counties, but current thinking is that the passage of the embedded
impulses aloft should disrupt the ongoing activity within the next
2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8pcpmXpFhE2czLV347fybNztipkC3atoiLr2jFxkU4IQKY_67vA06heOHYA0UdhIf3n0= ErkfDhUi8YwEmk5Z5Ni57eA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32069713 31929682 31659668 31359660 31129663=20
30859695 30689738 30599828 30679895 30929919=20
31089929 31379914 31579875 31879812 32039757=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132142
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Much of Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and
U.P. of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132140Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along a warm frontal boundary will
organize into training lines of storms, over an area of saturated
soils through this evening. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... Several areas of convection have begun to form along
a warm frontal boundary across much of Wisconsin and southeast
Minnesota this afternoon. These storms are being fed by moisture
influx with PWATs around 1 inch along the front, but over 1.3
inches along the Illinois/Wisconsin border, based on the latest
SPC Mesoanalysis. CAMs guidance is in good agreement that the
storms will continue to grow upscale into an MCS that will then
support training storms propagating eastward across central and
northern Wisconsin. A cold front shown across northern Minnesota
will press southeastward and eventually help to push the MCS
southward with time.

Soils across Minnesota and Wisconsin are nearly saturated due to
recent rainfall and around the U.P. of Michigan, recent snowmelt
as shown on NASA SPoRT imagery. With above average river levels
and nearly saturated soils across nearly all of Wisconsin, almost
all of the rainfall expected from this forecast MCS will convert
to runoff quickly. FFGs across this region on average are around
1.5 inches/1 hour, 2 inches/3 hours, and 2.5 inches/6 hours. These
values are likely to be exceeded with multiple rounds of training
storms expected late this afternoon and this evening. The cells
south of the Twin Cities have a history of rainfall rates
exceeding 2 inches/hour at times, showing that the atmosphere is
capable of rates exceeding these aforementioned FFG values.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7G1XSLTDBBKEgE6KnC6HjiSFk-T-6U4Bgr0ABoBXm8-JrDZHBYlj134353NlsdE9nf1H= lWiBku11TKmoojCTL9tJ1SM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46828894 46588739 45458680 44468747 43548763=20
43368904 43429003 43509140 43739228 44039312=20
44719364 45179376 45829361 46349312 46619141=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132331
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132330Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY... Clusters of storms are forming across portions of
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening. Localized
rain rates to 2" per hour could cause isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION... Convective coverage has rapidly increased across
portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening as
part of a broader low pressure center and warm frontal system,
tapping into Gulf moisture riding up to the south and east of
these features. Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour have
been observed on radar, with somewhat moistened soils in the area
from recent rainfall, based on NASA SPoRT imagery.

CAMs guidance is in poor agreement in this area, with none of the
guidance suggesting convective coverage would be as robust in this
area than has already formed. For those that have a hint of the
southern extent of this convection (NAMnest, ARW to a lesser
extent, and HRRR to an even lesser extent), all suggest much
faster and more eastward motions to these storms than have already
been occurring. Thus, with slower and more northward storm
motions, towards areas where storms have already formed across far
southern Minnesota, expect more robust training and heavier
rainfall rates than the guidance is suggesting, favoring more
potential for flash flooding over the next few hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6X1tqeZU-LUfkuQOxQe1ZCk91388CwJGlSqrn-Xsd_p7IlWiLuBHXrVEhhbbR6vhNbAj= BNCnIg_odYgJqLuN6203qEk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45369378 44999377 44649360 44179331 43929301=20
43769257 43649215 43449216 43129229 42679296=20
42619447 42549518 42579577 42809622 43209651=20
43539693 44139664 44909551 45309470 45349421=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140347
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...southern WI into central/northern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140344Z - 140800Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely from southern WI
into central/northern Lower MI over the next 4-5 hours. Saturated
to nearly saturated soils are expected to be a contributing factor
to excess runoff from rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.

Discussion...0320Z radar imagery across the Upper Midwest showed
an MCS with an elongated convective line on its southern flank,
oriented west-east from the MN/WI/IA tri-state region into
northwestern Lower MI. The cluster of thunderstorms were located
along a quasi-stationary front that extended west to east through
central WI/MI with 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over northeastern
IA, lowest over Lower MI) estimated just south of the boundary per
03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Infrared imagery showed cloud tops
continued to cool with divergence aloft aided within the
right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt upper level jet streak
positioned over Lake Superior into southern Quebec. 850 mb VAD
wind data showed 50-60 kt of SSW flow from eastern IA into
northern IL and southern WI, aiding rapid moisture transport
across Lake Michigan into Lower MI with upstream moisture over the
Midwest between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.

As the main surface low along the front in northwestern IA
advances ENE tonight, continued southerly flow ahead of the low
into the ongoing complex of storms should sustain convection
within the unstable airmass for several more hours. Mean cell
motions from the W to SW will interact with the southerly low
level inflow allowing for segments of the line to advance
southeastward at times. Cell mergers and training within the
linear segments of the MCS will attain rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
at times with an overall movement toward the east through 08Z.
Most soils across the region are saturated due to snowmelt and/or
recent rainfall, with additional heavy rainfall more quickly
translating into runoff compared to average. Therefore, areas of
flash flooding are likely to occur across southern WI into Lower
MI over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7L1O-mnGFqvdnGQKawceVca5wKPKEE_53aZyZ3QByeXtRcHpH_iNlJdj0PPvcB--9qxe= 996tFkVy9okNckkMMmvxAfw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...GRB...GRR...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45818459 45288327 44528305 43748367 42798585=20
42498773 42528950 42719070 43409120 44019101=20
44319034 44578902 45028737 45468637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141802
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern and Eastern
IL...Western and Central IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141800Z - 150000Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms coupled with locally wet/sensitive antecedent
conditions will foster an isolated to scattered threat for flash
flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows stronger diurnal heating promoting a steady destabilization
of the boundary layer across eastern IA, western IL and nosing
into southwest WI. This airmass is pooling south and east of a
quasi-stationary front as multiple waves of low pressure advance
along it.

Some modest CINH remains in place across these areas, but MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place, and this is
being supported by steep mid-level lapse rates transiting the
Midwest. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows a modest mid-level
shortwave impulse ejecting northeastward across central and
eastern IA down through northern MO and into western IL. This
energy coupled with additional solar insolation should erode the
remaining CAP across the region and set the stage for convective
initiation. Much of this should be focused in close proximity to a leftover/diffuse outflow boundary from the early-day convection.

As convection grows upscale, there will gradually be concerns for
a few cell-mergers and some cell-training. A combination of
multicells and supercells will be likely given the strong
instability in conjunction with strong shear (effective bulk shear
approaching 50 kts). The larger scale environment is also
increasingly moist with aid from a southwest low-level jet of 30
to 40+ kts. Deeper layer southwesterly moisture transport is noted
aloft too with elevated CIRA-LVT magnitudes.

Locally significant model disagreement is noted through this
evening with the placement of the convection and its general
evolution, but a multi-model consensus suggests eastern IA,
northern IL and southern WI seeing one focus for convection, with
areas of central/eastern IL and into western IN seeing a second
focus.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour,
with some localized totals by early this evening of 2 to 4 inches.
The antecedent conditions are locally quite sensitive, and
especially from eastern IA through northern IL and southern WI.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as
a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rVoRhS9MtZ95Sj6aCH05vO57EMIhqP-DU7yZfIuOyX3spDEUeEb69FAjBiqp3DRaLHv= v5fBXogv1SsUKymmwi2Cj7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43969015 43808891 43378810 42458766 41648679=20
41038574 40368523 39538567 39238682 39538845=20
40048943 41199043 41619249 41909331 42369330=20
42689297 43329238 43909121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-150402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of western North Texas and the
southeastern Texas Plains into southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142202Z - 150402Z

Summary...Ongoing convective evolution suggests an increasing
flash flood threat for areas near Vernon, Lawton, and eventually
toward the I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma through 04Z/11p
Central.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection continues to increase in
coverage across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.=20
Recent surface obs indicate subtle veering of flow west of a
dryline across the Texas South Plains, and objective
analyses/satellite suggest subtle vort maxima riding atop the
dryline and over a warm, unstable airmass over the discussion
area. These trends suggest continued expansion of convective
coverage across the discussion area over the next few hours
(especially as the low-level jet ramps up), with areas of training
and mergers expected to foster spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
especially near the Red River.

Antecedent conditions are a somewhat moist across the region from
prior heavy-rain events over the past week. Sensitive terrain and
urbanized areas (near Lawton in particular) could also experience
a higher runoff risk. The overall focus for flash flooding should
revolve around sensitive spots and locations of cell mergers -
with background/mean flow fields (around 35-45 knots) suggestive
that prolonged heavier rainfall (and >1.5 inch/hr rates/local FFG)
may not occur on a widespread basis.

Flash flooding is possible with this regime initially over
southwestern OK and western north Texas, with the risk spreading
northeastward toward I-35 in Oklahoma later tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VoGB_M1a_9ytYeE6UWe8iLQ051eCBJO1BKLKOA725_8XkZLNT0flAJJgr3NBTOQttOi= 3Q_C8zlaihqgqTHhLhv-AsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35969737 35969640 34589601 33539662 33169844=20
32870002 32960060 33570089 34530062 35180008=20
35599891=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142357
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-150556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin and Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142356Z - 150556Z

Summary...Deep convection will continue to produce heavy rainfall
while migrating eastward through Wisconsin, across Lake Michigan,
and eventually into Lower Michigan. Flash flooding is likely
given ongoing impacts and local sensitivities in the region.

Discussion...Deep convection has evolved as expected from the
Mississippi River eastward across much of Wisconsin and
northeastern Iowa. Favorable interactions with a warm frontal
zone and steep lapse rates aloft have enabled intense updrafts and
embedded mesocyclones to occasionally merge and produce spots of 2
inches/hr of rainfall at times. Areas of flash flooding are
possible in the short term.

Of particular concern is the potential for storms to expand
northeastward and eastward in coverage. The position of warm
frontal zone over central Wisconsin and cooler Lake Michigan
waters may weaken convection as storms move atop slightly
cooler/stable low-level air, although very steep lapse rates aloft
downstream should maintain convection as it migrates toward areas
that have experienced 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past 3 days,
with ongoing impacts to local watersheds in the area. FFGs fall
to below 1 inch/hr in a few downstream areas, highlighting the
sensitivity of the ground conditions there. Approaching heavy
rainfall may worsen ongoing recovery efforts and perhaps cause new
instances of flash flooding to occur.

Peak flash flood potential will spread into northeastern Wisconsin
in the 00-04Z timeframe and eventually spread into Lower Michigan
generally from 02Z onward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7kgjJfhxvhUeO4YT74P3s8DQ6l_xpQ24IGlUfxoboD8Y2QG0QSY5486_Dp46h_RYXL9-= Huhx9HqLAuI5qFzRolT1pZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...DVN...GRB...GRR...IWX...LOT...
MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408569 45298379 44028325 42218366 41788510=20
41898733 42518836 42508976 43319091 44929033=20
45348892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150024
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150023Z - 150623Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to not only persist, but
train and repeat over areas very near the WI/IL border vicinity
over the next several hours. Flash flooding is likely, and
significant impacts cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature convective
complex with embedded linear structures and mesocyclones extending
from south-central WI (near Madison) southwestward to near Dubuque
and Cedar Rapids. Other convection was anchored/backbuilding near
a warm front close to and just north of Milwaukee. Each of these
convective clusters were producing expanding cold pools that were
progressively orienting perpendicular to increasing southwesterly
low-level flow, with 45kts now noted on mesoanalyses at 850mb
across much of IA/IL. Latest indications are that these
convective clusters will continue to backbuild and train owing to
convergence along strengthening outflows and strong upstream
buoyancy (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE).=20

The scenario is beginning to favor multiple hours of repeating
convection (1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates) very close to where ongoing
convection exists currently. Localized 3-5 inch rainfall totals
are possible over the next 6 hours. This could result in
significant flash flood potential as FFG thresholds across the
area are only at around 1 inch/hr and will be readily exceeded.=20
This potential will likely exist through 06Z/1a central, with
populated areas near Madison, Milwaukee, Rockford, and perhaps
Chicago potentially experiencing impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_RimPN4452Lz3CSs_IelT7ml5jPYxQHeJmRoaCJABg12dpxpwKNOMVjDMdImE2PL8K-g= NjzLo2BW4jUzEE5JhCUattE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43498958 43368824 42998765 41958741 41538758=20
41248859 41319028 41369158 41559227 41839253=20
42249259 43009239 43179125=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150528
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-151020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL/southeastern WI to southern
MI/northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150526Z - 151020Z

SUMMARY...Scattered flash flooding will be possible in the
vicinity of the eastern IL/WI border, eastward to southern Lower
MI, northern IN and northwestern OH. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
(locally higher) are expected along with peak additional rainfall
totals of 2-3 inches through 10Z

DISCUSSION...05Z radar imagery depicted a trailing stratiform MCS
moving across Lower MI with the leading edge pressing
southeastward across southern MI into northern IN. An outflow
boundary was analyzed ahead of the convective line from
southeastern MI into northern IN/IL with upstream thunderstorm
development occurring north of the western portion of the boundary
along the WI/IL border. 925-850 mb winds were from the SW at 45-55
kt to the south of the boundary over north-central IL and
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extended from the MI/IN border back west to
the MS River, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

The leading edge of the MCS is expected to continue tracking
toward the ESE across southeastern MI into northern IN and
northwestern OH over the next 1 to 2 hours, but back to the west,
continued convective development is likely as moist, low level
flow overruns the slow moving western portion of the rain-cooled
outflow. Mean cell motions are generally from the west which will
setup a favorable pattern for training from west to east given
alignment with the low level boundary. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr are likely (locally higher possible), and an additional 2 to
3 inches of rain is expected through 10Z where cell training is
maximized. Flash flood guidance is less than 2 inches in 3 hours
for some locations, especially across northern IL/southern WI
where heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has contributed to
reduced soil infiltration.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gUZnv0Qxp7R8HWlZNMdEUOjnXzvwcsKhaQiAxAI-iAuF1r4A3I0uJ-ZiXaLC7iOJvba= 8vQFf0NVtX6daqnhMsw5PxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43668276 43568226 43138209 42448225 41578312=20
41298455 41268640 41468819 41788922 42428939=20
42908878 42848652 42988484 43578350=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152148
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-160246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152146Z - 160246Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will migrate eastward across wet/sensitive
areas from yesterday's rainfall especially across Wisconsin.=20
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
frontal boundary from just north of Dubuque to Des Moines. The
storms are exhibiting linear organization so far in their
evolution, with forward propagation and 40-50 kt speeds generally
limiting their rainfall potential to around 1 inch/hr or less.=20
Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis in the short term.

Over the next 1-4 hours, however, storms will migrate eastward
along a remnant outflow/frontal boundary extending east-west
across southern Wisconsin (generally from Sheboygan to Wisconsin
Dells). As low-level flow increases over Illinois, convergence
along this boundary could result in additional convection
developing in southern/southeastern Wisconsin out ahead of the
ongoing quasi-linear complex. This will increase potential for training/mergers and prolonged rainfall rates in areas that have
already experienced 1-4 inches of rainfall yesterday near/north
and west of Milwaukee and across far northern Illinois. FFGs are
less than 1 inch/hr in some spots and could readily be exceeded
where mergers take place. Flash flooding is likely - especially
in sensitive areas that received rainfall/runoff issues late
yesterday and early today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5opxEbcOifoi00puOb7C5zg01c-pm_jWC9NSJEfq1mEfdNRUZ1jcte1ysb-WmCRTq14u= t29w5aSU3WiQJFXPtvtydIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44558947 44408783 43208786 42008773 41548866=20
41449051 42319153 43979095=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152301
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Missouri, a small part of southeastern
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152259Z - 160459Z

Summary...Deep convection is organizing into clusters/segments
with localized training. Localized flash flooding is possible
especially in low-spots and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Convection continues to mature along and east of a
dryline extending from near Kansas City south-southwestward to
near Bartlesville and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The storms are in
a very moist, unstable airmass (with 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.5 inch
PW values) supporting locally heavy rainfall at times despite
appreciable storm motions of around 30-40 knots.

The storms are in an environment with modest forcing for ascent
due to the slow movement of the dryline, with an approaching
vort-max over Nebraska and confluence ahead of the dryline helping
to deepen and expand convective coverage. Because storms aren't
strictly confined to the dryline, a few areas of training have
been noted (especially across far southwestern Missouri near
Joplin). These trends should continue for several more hours as
evidence of any distinct upscale growth into forward-propagating
linear segments (that would effectively reduce rain rates) is
currently unclear.

Localized training/repeating is likely to result in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times on a localized basis. These rain
rates will threaten local FFG thresholds, with local sensitivities
also contributing to a potential flash flood risk. This risk will
persist for several hours this evening - perhaps through 03-04Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4QBPUYiOvvcrSPYpuhtkEviwBvLAooHGfmdwrtbeqZBMskhBe_do-t8cvF3LxHUIUCMe= m9tMCSe9Cl1O5RzzcsdF2es$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40509182 39399086 37999060 37039114 36699282=20
36749448 37119532 38149503 39479452 40199364=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160012
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160609-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma, far north Texas,
far western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160009Z - 160609Z

Summary...An axis of training convection has materialized from
near Wichita Falls through Ardmore to near McAlister. This heavy
rain axis should translate east-northeastward over the next few
hours, with flash flooding possible especially across southern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Initial scattered convection has recently aligned
into a focused, training axis of cells along the Red River Valley
this evening. The storms are in a weakly forced environment, with
forcing for ascent resulting from the glancing influence of a
mid-level wave over Nebraska and weakly confluent low-level flow
across the region. The orientation of cells parallel to mean flow
aloft - combined with their gradual maturity and establishment of
cold pools - suggests that training convection will continue to be
an issue for at least a few hours. This training band of
convection will gradually translate east-northeastward into more
of eastern Oklahoma and perhaps far western Arkansas through the
overnight hours. A secondary training band of convection
near/north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex may also materialize
over the next couple hours.

Ground conditions are relatively dry in many areas, with hourly
FFG thresholds exceeding 2-2.5 inches in spots. This suggests
isolated flash flood potential across the region - mainly tied to
low spots and/or urban areas. Persistence of training, however
(as evidenced by 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ardmore) suggests
that appreciable impacts may occur where rainfall is heaviest and
most persistent. This isolated flash flood threat should persist
for several hours - perhaps through 06Z/1a central.

Cook=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94K4h8YfYfUxaStsHe_mwQL2Cg4STxUAwOgtVe0vJgX8kBrY3h64uUeSF04aU6SgfTz9= sW5g0eOrXgiqZql0yM0HAKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35899509 35869426 34929421 33509505 33079635=20
32859832 34239831 35069740=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160311
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois...East-Central/Southeast
Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCV continues to provide solid WAA ascent coupled
with nose of enhanced deep layer moisture likely to support
efficient rainfall production with rates of 1.5-1.75" and streaks
of 2-3" totals resulting in possible incident(s) of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR suite depicts a maturing MCV just
southwest of metro St. Louis lifting northeastward at this time.=20
GOES-E WV and RADAR show a broadening mid-level baroclinic
leaf/shield indicative of continued favorable evacuation aloft to
maintain the MCS for the next few hours. VWP and RAP analysis
denote the broad divergence is supporting strengthening low level
flow with solid confluence at the nose of the deeper layer
moisture axis. CIRA LPW shows corridor of 850-500mb moisture is
aligned ideally with the southwesterly flow but sfc to 850mb
moisture is very broad and increasing to support TPW value in
excess of 1.5". The 30-35kts of 850-700mb confluent flow in this
moisture regime will support 1.5-1.75" rainfall production even
with reducing/narrowing unstable axis (generally 500-750 J/kg of
MUCAPEs). The MCV is also providing a corralling of downstream
flow into a well defined deformation axis that is generally
parallel to the deeper layer steering. This orientation will be
the supportive requirement for increased duration to support
localized steaks of 2-3" totals.

Unlike further north, the ground conditions are much drier due to
the prolonged drought. Yet, FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-3"/3hr
are in the realm of exceedance and while not all locations will be
exceeded there should be a few areas that may lead to localized
flash flooding conditions through the early overnight period. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible across central IL back
through east-central MO; with slightly higher potential in the
urban areas near Metro St. Louis, due to hydrophobic grounds and
drainage.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WoxM95G8ExX39lGSpA8s-H7qn-FUCdGbkYh4vn_8BhypuFWDWSIc__7RJp008JX_uhC= d3_AwawJzGwp-3qEB59Qe3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40338843 39928763 39148773 38638840 37699014=20
37499135 37969181 38549157 38819130 39579024=20
40138941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160234
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Far Southeast WI...Southern L.P. of
MI...Far Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160235Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Potential for localized flash flooding continues through
the early overnight period; though coverage should become more
scattered with loss of heating/rainfall intensity. Rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr and spots of 2-3" remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a mature MCV across central
Lake Michigan just east of Milwaukee progressing toward
Holland/Muskegon, MI with a trailing QLCS convective line
extending across SE WI into the NW Exurbs of Chicago along W I-88
in N IL toward the Quad Cities. The cold pool appears to be
maturing as well, increasing forward propagation of the line
particularly through the middle, toward the WI/IL line, this is
reducing overall residency time for extreme rainfall totals, but
the short-term heavy bursts may still result in 1-1.5" in 30 to 60
minutes. Given recent heavy rainfall and saturated upper soil
profiles and proximity to hydrophobic urban conditions near
Chicago will result in increased run-off and likely incidents of
localized flash flooding/rapid rise flood, especially in the next
few hours.

GOES-WV shows expanding divergence region along the entrance of a
100 kt 3H speed max across the LP of MI at this time, helping to
maintain the MCV crossing the more stable air of Lake Michigan but
solid southwesterly warm-air advection is allowing for downstream
convergence with limited but sufficient MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg.=20
VWP shows solid 850-700 40-45kt flow at the western nose of the
deep layer moisture axis where overall PW totals are increasing to
over 1.25". This will likely continue to support 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates and given the record wet spring across the SW LP; FFGs are
compromised in spots and while typically sandy and able to absorb
these rates and totals up to 2-3", saturation over 75% to 85% will
still quickly be overwhelmed with above normal run off and
potential for localized flash flooding conditions. However,
proximity to the unstable air will be increasing (along with
overall diurnal loss) and overall intensity of thunderstorms will
be steadily increasing through the night reducing overall coverage
and magnitude of flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4LPc5RRJ7D_EWUR-GQyFYstxacfepZIrau-Gq7EetmrgliaA_S5VAKvEdlNZqw0hlovq= memycrUKXrRQJ4-THjJqulI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43868583 43758458 43508280 42468379 41648587=20
41268769 41238976 41499024 42108976 42648902=20
42968835 43578710=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160444
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest Missouri...Adj.
Northwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160445Z - 160845Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of potential localized flash flooding
due to slow moving/training thunderstorms across the Ozark Plateau.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic shows a
solid warming/weakening trend to the convective line across much
of the Ozark Plateau. RAP analysis shows warming low levels and
increasing CINH trends across the remaining well of 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, the exception remaining along the upwind edge across NE
OK; and this is where the healthiest updrafts remain. Still,
KINX/KSGF show most are starting to have dominating outflow
patterns. However, as the dry-line retreated and the mean
upper-level shortwave trough across IA is kicking east; a weakness
in the overall mid-level flow/steering is lying perpendicular to
weakening but sufficient southerly surface to boundary layer/925mb
flow providing solid moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
remaining MLCAPE axis. Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s. With this
convergence and steering flow parallel to the boundary (and
slacking), training or increased downdraft residency may allow for
a narrow axis of enhanced rainfall rates up to 1.75"/hr for a
potential of localized 2-3" total. Beside naturally lower FFG
due to complex terrain across the Ozark Plateau, even further west
into NE OK, FFG values are locally lower with hourly values less
than 1.5-2" and 3" values less than 3". So an isolated incident
or two of flash flooding remains possible more likely over the
next few hours (through 06z) than into late overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TvB5wH1yA2rEBw5_ycJhpkLeoKNTS-Ovu9k5jlIx-qJ2pkeb0t11tRXvyqCe5r2sRyr= ukq0ka5--mZ0V5dP_wCKRGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37839174 37359132 36779169 36529332 36329416=20
36139587 36179651 36579663 36769627 36979505=20
37359379 37769264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162003
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-170001-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...a small part of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162001Z - 170001Z

Summary...Isolated, slow-moving thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding for the next few hours (through 00Z/7p
central).

Discussion...A localized cluster of thunderstorms has become
established across central Missouri. The storms have developed in
response to strong insolation/surface destabilization beneath a
very cold mid/upper wave (-18C at 500 hPa). The storms are also
in a very localized area where mid-level flow drops off
substantially, with right-moving storm motions falling to around
5-10 knots per point forecast soundings. This explains recent
behavior of the storm cluster very near Osage Beach, MO, where
MRMS estimates of 1+ inch/hr in that area were already exceeding
local FFG.

Given the weak forcing for ascent, convective coverage is in
question. Persistence of ongoing activity - or perhaps additional
slow-moving cluster(s) of convection could produce 1 inch/hr rain
rates at times. Again, these rates could exceed FFG, and given
sensitive local terrain in the region, another instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. This risk will
likely be diurnally driven and lessen some after sunset.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ObucWhVuhSJtJ-DCrbSpVcGeYPrECRaPTiEJb1XmBzxTkejYnTMq5FUaz6gFsNiaqkA= M_oO_IyUC9okdjLdiTlDbSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 38919228 38839074 38279022 37459022 37119109=20
37199248 37689329 38099339 38809317=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171811
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...Northeast MO...Western and Northern IL..Eastern
IA...Far Southeast MN...Central and Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171810Z - 180010Z

SUMMARY...Rapid convective development is expected over highly
saturated soils this afternoon. Anomalous moisture and instability
will support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. While
individual cell motions will be fast, cell-training will lead to
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, making flash flooding likely
given the sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate rapid destabilization across the
Upper Midwest ahead of an ejecting upper-level trough and
approaching strong cold front. A 40 to 50+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet is fostering intense warm air advection and moisture
transport into the region, resulting in an anomalously moist and
unstable airmass for mid-April (PWATs climbing to ~1.25 inches and
MLCAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg).

Convective initiation is expected imminently as the cap erodes,
particularly near surface waves analyzed over north-central IA and
southeast MN which are locally enhancing convergence. Deep-layer
ascent will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as a
strong shortwave/jet streak rounds the base of the trough and
approaches from the west. Convective mode is expected to feature a
mix of supercells and organized multicell clusters.

While strong deep-layer shear (40 to 50+ kts) will promote fast
individual cell motions to the northeast, the southwesterly
steering flow is largely parallel to the low-level jet axis and
lifting warm front. This alignment will strongly favor corridors
of cell-training and repeating rounds of heavy rainfall over the
same areas. High-efficiency updrafts will be capable of producing
1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, with the 12Z HREF signaling
localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches through 00Z.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat is the highly
sensitive antecedent conditions. Recent NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil
moisture data indicates very moist if not saturated soils (80 to
100%) across much of the region, and USGS streamflow networks show
running waterways are already elevated. With minimal infiltration
capacity, the intense 1 to 2 inch/hour rates will to convert to
enhanced runoff concerns, and likely promoting scattered areas of
flash flooding which will include some localized urban impacts as
well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9hjs2Z_oHmyo18eoaSQu7i3KoZD9Delq5_o_Aeyu83kiVMQIawM1h87TuD-4LEItpLhN= MhaDX-LNgGe5ulc54SN8dxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...EAX...GRB...ILX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45659058 45318891 44168851 42578857 41148902=20
40108946 39429028 39319154 39769277 40559338=20
41339334 43079263 44399214 45129163=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171904
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into
northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171902Z - 180102Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible as storms expand in coverage
and intensity across the discussion area through 00Z/7p central.

Discussion...Convective initiation has occurred in earnest along a
synoptic front extending from near St. Joseph, MO to near Wichita,
KS over the past half hour. The storms are in an extremely
unstable environment, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.2-1.5 inch
PW values supporting heavy rainfall. The front and initial
convection was also oriented parallel to deep southwesterly
steering flow aloft, suggestive of areas of training as storms
mature over the next 1-2 hours. The localized training (and
perhaps cell mergers where individual cells can move right of mean
flow) should result in a few spots of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates that
could result FFG exceedance and flash flooding with time.

Trends through the night will ultimately depend on the degree of
convective coverage and any upscale growth into linear segments
that could materialize. Even if the dominant storm mode becomes
linear, local training axes are likely to materialize and enhance
flash flood risk. These trends, along with any potential
development out ahead of the main frontal band, will be monitored
for any corridors of significant flash flood potential through the
evening hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_6urUHJHWAXBLoWXgUTS01fJG-k_8qnlfcUOHJLu-Nf-cVPdz3_l-tPy6jQQo3CpjNI9= 066vCnaiDF9ytCYfuFMT224$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40579404 40529265 39909261 37869402 37089542=20
36999727 37289839 38509719 40219524=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172337
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongated conpmex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75sQHgPWBmHMjZ1Iw9XEB_ZKL_6aH3-pygDpV2_kNNOuyft9zc_2YNqGB8JtW2UbmLfK= YzgLHaEoDJkopQwKKRSvHJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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