ACUS11 KWNS 152312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152311=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Texas...central Louisiana...eastern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 152311Z - 160115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and
intensity this evening. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging
wind, and a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing along the cold
front moving east across far eastern TX into western LA. Comparison
of 18z to 20z sounding from SHV showed lifting of the MLCIN layer
between 850 and 700mb with the influence of the trough moving
eastward. Though some MLCIN remains across southeast Texas into
central Louisiana, the environment ahead of these storms is
characterized by MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear
around 40-45 kts. Cooling aloft will continue to erode MLCIN through
time this evening. This environment will support line embedded
supercells, capable of damaging wind, large hail, and couple of
tornadoes. Storms to the north have a history of 1-1.5 inch hail and
winds up to 65 mph. A new watch will be needed to cover this threat
over the next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9syMD_KuEhBxKzrPl80ETFMVlVX89j30mhveQsar6CMh_xb_ngdpOhND7uOK4Dv1b1flNZ0Yi= sD2HOurRQUVomOuyBs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30259614 31229551 32779263 32869244 32849229 32679122
32459098 32099109 31719122 31209153 30329184 29879229
29699276 29749570 29949593 30189613 30259614=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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