ACUS11 KWNS 160129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160128=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and
southwestern into west-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 160128Z - 160330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado risk to increase this evening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues near a cold
front sagging southward and east across central LA into southeast
Texas. Further east ahead of the front, attempts at development are
starting to occur across southern Louisiana as MLCIN has begin to
erode over the last hour. It is likely that ongoing convection will
move downstream, with additional development possible ahead of this
across southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg will overlap with deep layer shear around 40 kts to
support supercells ahead of the main line and more clustered/mixed
mode/line embedded supercells closer to the cold front. Primary
risks would be for damaging winds and tornadoes, though some
instances of hail could occur with discrete supercells. A watch will
be needed soon to cover this threat.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8HF9Ts9sWFEZgcG6q3LDWbt-O-tpMJAHnILulhEbJwXQsoOibZXgGXGmsY_H4z7VysBRVrDO0= pT6mtP4rIlfOayrcyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30379183 32369059 33158885 32848772 32578730 31708735
30518792 29579021 29439148 29909206 30379183=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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