ACUS11 KWNS 160822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160821=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-161015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Far southern WV...western VA...far eastern
TN...western NC and SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160821Z - 161015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds will continue with an
eastward-advancing squall line. A downstream watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented QLCS is tracking eastward across
eastern KY, TN, and northern GA at around 40 kt. While
boundary-layer moisture and surface-based buoyancy is limited ahead
of the line (especially with northward extent), very strong
deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the leading gust front
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Given the linear mode, damaging wind gusts will continue to
be the primary concern, though an embedded mesovortex tornado cannot
be entirely ruled out -- given strong low-level shear. A downstream
watch will likely be issued soon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5szk9_LP3jVsVOxrmWOv__2CpCZwEQAL8MOzgSS4TagJ5b0ZvW6d_COmmxEnffwCXoaE_4A0c= ZO0MPCs8VJx0l-ArXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

LAT...LON 37368226 37658211 37808159 37818110 37658062 37348038
36868049 36188085 35288138 34708199 34478252 34608331
34768396 34988411 35378396 35878329 36568263 37368226=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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