ACUS02 KWNS 160559
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the
surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the
position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be
located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will
develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A
trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO
Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest
MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to
develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near
a dryline extending southwest from western OK into
west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the
Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold
temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI
at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the
moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization,
with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector.
This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust
convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low
southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial
supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the
Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest
OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust
line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO
and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level
wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk,
both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete
supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may
develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI.
Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings
indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km.
Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates
should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may
become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.

Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake
Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually
waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI
and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or
overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario
is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main
risk.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161743
SWODY2
SPC AC 161741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains
during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into
upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the
entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level temperatures will already be relatively cool.

During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,
with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and
northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI
during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the
cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass
ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the
evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from
Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.

The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample
moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,
including all modes of severe.

...From IA into WI and northwest IL...
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early
evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While
convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in
a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,
along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and
near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape
late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z
ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,
conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to
indicate stronger tornado potential.

Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with
damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake
MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and
lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet
brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.

...OK/KS/MO...
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front
Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several
tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer
shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while
the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and
likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support
tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity
is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of
destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much
of MO and into northern OK through the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell
structures.

Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe.

...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms.

...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.

...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180541
SWODY2
SPC AC 180539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move slowly east from the Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Sunday. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will extend from the Plains to the Midwest and Southeast.
This will help advance the cold front (and richer moisture) into the
Atlantic and the Gulf.

The prevalence of high pressure and a continental, dry airmass
across most of the country will lead to minimal thunderstorm chances
on Sunday. A few isolated thunderstorms could develop along the
front from eastern Georgia to eastern North Carolina before the
front moves offshore. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
eastern shore of the Florida Peninsula, but given the weak
instability, strong to severe concern remains minimal.

Finally, thunderstorms that form over the higher terrain in northern
Mexico on Sunday may move into parts of South Texas and the Edwards
Plateau before weakening in the increasingly hostile post-frontal
environment.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181724
SWODY2
SPC AC 181723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves off
the Eastern Seaboard and the FL Peninsula. Preceding the trough,
large-scale ascent will support isolated/elevated thunderstorms
across coastal New England into the afternoon. Similarly, a couple thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front over coastal NC and
farther south over the central/southern FL Peninsula (aided by an
Atlantic sea breeze), though much of this activity may develop
offshore. Farther west over the lower Great Lakes, lapse rates will
quickly steepen beneath the core of the midlevel trough, and
sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy will support a couple
thunderstorms -- given increasing ascent in the left-exit region of
a midlevel jet.

Finally, isolated/elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a
post-frontal air mass across southwest TX, where weak warm-air
advection will develop amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

..Weinman.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190547
SWODY2
SPC AC 190546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough will progress from the Northeast off the New
England coast on Monday, while the trailing cold front continues
southward into the Caribbean Sea. In the wake of this system, high
pressure and a relatively dry airmass will limit thunderstorm
potential across much of the CONUS.

... South Florida ...

North of the aforementioned front, diurnal heating of a moist
post-frontal airmass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Weak
buoyancy and a lack of significant large-scale ascent should
preclude any severe threat.

... Southwest into Texas ...

Farther west, a subtle, low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into
South Texas, combined with weak low-level warm advection and modest
moisture return will support a few rounds of isolated thunderstorms
across Southwest Texas into Central Texas.

Additionally, isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the
Southwest as midlevel moisture impinges on the region. This activity
is expected to remain focused over the higher terrain, and given the
weak instability and modest forcing, severe weather is not expected.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191722
SWODY2
SPC AC 191720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough within the Northeast will progress offshore on
Monday. A subtle shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will
move into South Texas/middle Texas coast overnight into Tuesday
morning. On the West Coast, a stronger upper trough will into parts
of the Northwest and northern/central California. A surface high
pressure system across much of the east will remain largely in
place. Very modest moisture return is possible into the Rio Grande
Valley and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos regions.

...South Florida...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected across the Peninsula given the
upper trough to the north. Though mid-level temperatures will be
cooling during the day, persistent northeasterly winds at the
surface will lead to a large down-peninsular component at low
levels. Dewpoints will have a tendency to drop during the same time
frame. This pattern, coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should
keep severe potential low.

...Trans-Pecos into Central/South Texas...
With moisture return into the Davis Mountains vicinity, a storm or
two could develop within the terrain. A modest enhancement to
deep-layer shear in association with the subtle perturbation moving
through could allow for a stronger storm. Given how isolated this
activity would be as well as its dependency on sufficient moisture
return, confidence in such a scenario is quite low.

Farther east, warm air advection will increase during the overnight
hours. Elevated buoyancy is expected to increase during this time
frame. Shear will be weaker with northern extent and increasing
southward in closer proximity to the weak shortwave perturbation.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak as will MUCAPE (less than 750
J/kg). Small hail may occur with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 04/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.

... Synopsis ...

Midlevel ridging will be in place from the eastern Great Basin into
the Plains at the start of the forecast period, while persistent
northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Farther west, an upper trough will gradually advanced inland
across California into the Great Basin by the end of the period.

At the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the
Southeast and adjacent Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across
the central US. This will promote a gradual moisture recovery across
the central Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal
boundary pushing south through portions of the central Plains and
Great Lakes will denote the northern edge of the moisture return.

... Lower Great Lakes ...

Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone may be delayed until
later in the day or evening as moisture slowly returns northward.
While relatively cold temperatures aloft should support steep lapse
rates, the quality and depth of the boundary-layer moisture is
expected to be the biggest unknown. The NAM is the most aggressive
with the depth and quality of the moisture return, and if moisture
quality is close to what is shown in the NAM, enough instability
should materialize to take advantage of the stronger vertical shear
to support a few organized cells capable of gusty winds or small
hail. However, most model guidance is less aggressive with the
quality of the moisture return so no probabilities have been added
at this time.

... South-central US ...

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period. Modest vertical shear and elevated instability may support a
couple strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds.
However, overall thunderstorm intensity should wane through much of
the period as upper ridging overspreads the region.

... Western US ...

As the upper trough moves inland, ascent will increase across the
Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Great
Basin. Within the Central Valley and nearby terrain, pockets of
diurnal heating, combined with cool midlevel temperatures may
support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Despite this modest instability, weak vertical shear should limit
any organized severe potential.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201726
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the
southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential
for severe weather appears low.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday.
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into
California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high
pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture
return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur
through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary
within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes.

...Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level
moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along
the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow
aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards
southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb
of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by
late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and
capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario
continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the
boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given
how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this
initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low.
The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near
southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be
capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling
should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri
is far more conditional.

...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas...
Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas.
Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer
shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through
the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend
region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear
and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential.

...California Central Valley...
After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of
surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg.
While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be
limited by weak deep-layer shear.

..Wendt.. 04/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210554
SWODY2
SPC AC 210553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop
during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions
of the High Plains.

... Synopsis ...

A closed upper low across the western US will devolve into an open
wave as it lifts northeast toward the northern Plains. At the same
time, a surface low will gradually deepen as it moves across
northern Montana east into North Dakota by Thursday morning.

Lee troughing will strengthen during the day with the approach of
the western trough. The surface wind field within this lee trough
will function to sharpen a dryline from the surface low south across
much of the High Plains. To the east of the dryline, strengthening
southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward into the
strengthening cyclone. The quality of this moisture return remains a significant source of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances
with northward extent.

... Northern High Plains including areas of eastern Montana...

By late afternoon increasing large-scale ascent, driven by modest
height falls, will overspread northern portions of the dryline.
Despite moisture concerns, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop across portions of the dryline during the afternoon.
Large temperature/dewpoint spreads may support strong wind gusts
with the strongest storms.

The best synoptic scale forcing for ascent will move across portions
of eastern Montana during the late afternoon and evening. Should
boundary layer moisture be richer than currently anticipated (e.g.,
closer to 40F than 25F), a threat for marginally severe wind gusts
may materialize. This area will continued to be assessed in
subsequent outlooks for an upgrade to Level 1/Marginal.

... Southern High Plains ...

Midlevel height falls will not be as great here as compared to areas
farther north. However, richer boundary layer moisture and strong
dryline circulations aided by temperatures approaching 90F to the
west of the dryline should support at least isolated thunderstorm
development. Around 40 knots of cloud-layer shear should support at
least a marginal hail risk with any storm that develops.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211726
SWODY2
SPC AC 211724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop
during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions
of the High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough within parts of the Northwest and Great Basin will
progress eastward through the day Wednesday. The mid-level jet will
round the base of this trough and impact the northern High Plains
during the evening overnight. A secondary mid-level jet will dig
into the Southwest by early Thursday morning. The upper-level ridge
across the Plains will begin to break down and shift eastward. At
the surface, a deep surface low will track along the Montana/Canada
border. Strengthening flow across the Rockies will promote a
moderately strong lee trough. Surface moisture will continue to
advect north and west during the period. Richer moisture will
generally remain within the southern Plains and adjacent High Plains
with less certain moisture quality farther north.

...Western Nebraska...western South Dakota...
With greater large-scale ascent and closer proximity to the surface
low, confidence in storm development is higher in these areas. The
main question will be the degree of moisture return that can occur
through the day. Model guidance still varies widely in this regard.
Dewpoints near 50 F are possible into southwest Nebraska, but this
may occur towards 00Z or later. Farther north, dewpoints in the 40s
F may be the ceiling for late afternoon/early evening. A probable
scenario is that high-based convection develops within the terrain
of eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota and within the surface
trough. Some intensification is possible as this activity encounters
greater surface moisture to the east. Severe wind gusts will be the
main hazard given the steep low-level lapse rates and inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles. Linear structures would be favored in South
Dakota given the deep-layer flow orientation. A supercell or two
could occur in western Nebraska, should storms form.

...Southern High Plains into Western Kansas...
With the synoptic trough lagging to the west, mid-level height falls
will be very weak during the afternoon. The dryline/surface trough
will be the focus for storm development. Temperatures nearing 90 F
behind the dryline appear sufficient for an isolated storm or two to
develop. That said, some guidance does not develop any convection.
Deep-layer shear will be roughly perpendicular to the surface trough
and mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Storms that can develop
will be supercellular. Large hail would be the main concern with
this activity.

...Eastern Montana...
High-based convection is possible in association with the deepening
surface low. Dewpoints will not likely reach 40 F. Gusty outflow
winds are possible, but potential for severe gusts is low.

..Wendt.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.


As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221724
SWODY2
SPC AC 221722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern High Plains Thursday
morning is forecast to shift east across the northern Plains into
the upper MS Valley in tandem with a belt of 50-60 kt
south-southwest winds in the mid levels. A secondary, lower-latitude disturbance will advance into western KS and the OK/TX panhandles
late Thursday afternoon into evening, along with a more zonal
mid/upper-level jet streak. At the surface, the primary cyclone
attendant to the northern Plains system is expected to undergo
occlusion over southern into central Manitoba, while a trailing cold
front progresses east through the northern Plains into the upper MS
Valley. A pre-frontal trough or pseudo-dryline will precede the cold
front, extending from western MN through western IA and eastern NE
into central KS by early to mid afternoon. A secondary surface low
is forecast to deepen across portions of southwest KS or northwest
OK Thursday afternoon in response to the approach of the
lower-latitude disturbance mentioned above. A more classic dryline
will extend south from that low through western OK into western
north TX during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

...Upper MS Valley and upper Midwest through the mid/lower MO Valley
into central/eastern KS...

A broad, nocturnal, low-level wind maximum will develop across the
Great Plains tonight (Wed. night), enhancing the poleward flux of an increasingly moist boundary layer beneath a residual EML plume
residing across the same region. The moisture increase beneath a
capping inversion at the base of the EML may result in considerable
cloud cover Thursday afternoon across portions of the warm sector
air mass. Where cloud breaks occur, model soundings indicate the
potential for MLCAPE to approach 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of
southern MN to as high as 2000-3000+ J/kg in central and eastern KS.

By early to mid afternoon, convergence along the pre-frontal
trough/dryline coupled with increasing height falls/forcing for
ascent are expected to support widely scattered thunderstorms from
portions of central and southern MN through eastern NE and western
IA, into at least northeast KS. While the strongest mid/upper-level
wind fields are expected to remain to the immediate west of the
initiating boundary, a corridor of 40-45 kt effective bulk shear
will overlie the western fringe of the warm sector, supporting
organized multicells and supercells as the initial storm mode with
an attendant threat for large to very large hail and a few
tornadoes. Subsequent upscale growth into a broken band of storms is
expected Thursday evening into Thursday night across portions of
eastern MN into western WI, western and central IA, southeast NE,
northeast KS, and northwest MO. Damaging wind potential will
increase with that mode change, with a continued risk for a few
tornadoes.

The most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and
vertical wind shear is expected to develop across central into
eastern KS Thursday afternoon into evening. Here, a few intense
supercells capable of all severe-weather hazards appear possible,
and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be required
in subsequent Day 1 outlooks.

...OK into north TX...

Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is
expected to develop east of the dryline by late afternoon into early
evening on Thursday. However, strong capping at the base of the EML
casts considerable uncertainty on whether storms can develop. While
the strongest forcing for ascent associated with the secondary
short-wave trough is expected to remain across KS, subtle mid-level
height falls are forecast across northern OK. Otherwise, strong
heating to the west of the dryline and resultant deepening
circulations along it will be the primary mechanism responsible for
any storm development.

On the condition that isolated storms develop and become sustained,
the kinematic environment will support supercells capable of very
large hail and tornadoes. This is especially the case during the
evening hours as low-level shear strengthens in response to the
amplification of the low-level jet.

..Mead.. 04/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into
the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.


By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231715
SWODY2
SPC AC 231715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231752
SWODY2
SPC AC 231715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141722
SWODY2
SPC AC 141720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the
central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level
disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward
across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS
River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest
deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with
continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the
east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along
these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the
overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River
Valley/Midwest.

...Lower Missouri River Valley...
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across
central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions
on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped
thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central
Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection,
including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level
storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick
upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the
potential for large/very large hail.

Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and
ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly
placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective
initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends,
15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward.
Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into
portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and
elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the
overnight hours.

...Southern Plains...
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9
C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through
the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the
dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates
should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late
afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based
convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support
strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint
that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop
as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable
spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward
expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for
this potential.

To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML
will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM
solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for
isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot
mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any
deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential
for a supercell or two capable of large hail.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as
strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern
Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US,
upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the
central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the
Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central
Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains,
bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm
frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low
and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible
along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains...
As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across
eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will
be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s
dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong
deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into
the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also
likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing
segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a
stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the
evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This
may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential.
Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low.
Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends
align.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will
remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and
favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote
an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large
hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for
development is most favorable near the Red River in southern
Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated
thunder probabilities are highest.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts
winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development
into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep
convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the
warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an
attendant threat for damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains to the OH Valley...
Amplification of the pattern will occur this weekend as a midlevel
trough digs south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected in the vicinity of
southeast CO. Within the warm sector of the cyclone, an influx of
mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will persist from OK/KS into
the lower MO Valley and the OH Valley. Remnants of D1 convection
could be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of MO/IL,
with the possibility of an MCV moving eastward during the day across
the OH Valley. Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible
with loosely organized clusters during the day into the OH Valley.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible during the afternoon
along the outflow-reinforced front across northern MO.

The primary severe threat is expected to increase Saturday
afternoon/evening, starting in northeast CO and spreading eastward
into NE and adjacent areas of northwest KS. Upslope flow north of
the lee cyclone and westward advection of low-level moisture beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate-large buoyancy
near the warm front. Storm initiation is probable by mid-late
afternoon in northeast CO, and storms will subsequently spread
eastward toward southwest NE/northwest KS. Wind profiles with long
hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing very large
hail (up to 3 inches in diameter). Low-level shear and moisture
will become sufficient for a few tornadoes as the storms move
farther east toward the CO/KS/NE border region. Upscale growth into
a cluster/MCS will also be possible Saturday evening, with an
increase in the potential for severe outflow gusts of 65-80 mph.

Farther south, thunderstorm development along the dryline is more
questionable given a warm elevated mixed layer and (at best) weak
forcing for ascent. Still, hot temperatures/deep mixing could
support isolated, high-based storms with the conditional threat for
large hail and strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will
deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners
into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into
Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the
day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps
as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...NE to MN...
Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud
cover. Better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska
into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern
Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.
Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandles...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be
difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161735
SWODY2
SPC AC 161734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one
or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind
damage risk.

...Synopsis...

A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot
east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early
Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected
to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced
southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High
Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the
Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI.

At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into
western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across
west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will
extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon,
while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and
into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA...

A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon,
particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm
development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within
an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front.
Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected
across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the
cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large
hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and
elongated/straight hodographs.

With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east
within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD
near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle
lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning
cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area
this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for
clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass
will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE
2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region.
Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height,
will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved
low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells
will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent
and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale
growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing
strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast
NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA.

With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop
near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level
jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind
gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish
with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as
instability weakens and capping increases.

...KS/OK vicinity...

A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern
Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely
inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from
west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX
Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline
and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the
northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms
develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to
midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind
profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will
be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the
dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain
confined.

...Lower MI...

Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front
lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the
region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level
moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While
low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and
increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized
updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any
surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will
likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four
Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow
moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the
Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is
expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the
vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin
at the start of the D2/Monday period.

A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado
northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be
located across central Kansas extending southward into western
Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be
common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front
into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the
afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across
central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...
Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across
central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will
exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across
central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating
and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid
to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will
yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg
extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will
erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation
expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around
20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support
organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts.
Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+
inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this
potential.

The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale
ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50
kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening
flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with
broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing
low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach
250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in
combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support
an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should
discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will
be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into
southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented
somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms
near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists
for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of
the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this
scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska.
Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into
southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS.

...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI...
Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of
the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some
risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that
recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with
thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying
of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning
convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY.
Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the
north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper
Midwest.

...OK/TX...
A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of very large hail and
strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas into
southeast Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough, now approaching the northern Great
Basin, will move to near the Four Corners by Monday morning and then
eject northeastward over northwest KS/NE during the afternoon and to
the upper MS Valley by early Tuesday. This path will be along and
just northwest of a stalled baroclinic zone from the central Plains
into the upper MS Valley, such that the primary height falls and
forcing for ascent will brush the northwest side of the surface warm
sector from KS to IA. A remnant lee cyclone will persist through
the afternoon near the southwest KS/OK Panhandle border, prior to a
surge of the cold front in the immediate wake of the midlevel
trough. Downstream from the ejecting trough, surface cyclogenesis
is expected Monday night from IA into WI along a stalled front.

...KS to IA...
There are a few questions surrounding the forecast for Monday
afternoon/night. The northeast extent of the unstable warm sector
will depend on the persistence of rain-cooled air with morning
convection across IA/northern MO/northwest IL. This convection and
an associated MCV could continue eastward through the day across central/northern IL, northern IN, northwest OH and Lower MI with the
potential for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail. The
west edge of the remnant cold pool should modify by
afternoon/evening from the MO/KS/NE border area into IA, prior to
thunderstorm development along the stalled front (and immediately in
advance of glancing influence of the ejecting midlevel trough)
21-00z from central KS into southeast NE and western IA.

Rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints 68-72 F) is
spreading northward now from TX to OK and will be established in the
warm sector Monday. The moisture will reside beneath an elevated
mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates and will combine with
daytime heating to drive MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. Mass response to
the ejecting wave and the typical evening ramp up of a low-level jet
will result in favorable wind profiles/hodographs for supercells
capable of producing strong-intense tornadoes and very large hail.
The duration of a semi-discrete storm mode is another question,
given the parallel orientation of the stalled front and the
deep-layer shear vectors, in combination with focused ascent. Thus,
the strong tornado threat will peak prior to upscale growth into
line segments along the front, with severe outflow gusts and
embedded circulations becoming the main concerns into Monday night.

...OK/northwest TX...
Storm development along the dryline to the south in OK/northwest TX
is more uncertain given little forcing for ascent. If storms do
form, there will be a conditional threat for tornadoes and very
large hail. A consistent forecast weakness in the flow above 500 mb
by late afternoon/evening does not appear favorable for particularly
long-lived storms if they do form. The more probable scenario
remains a back-building line of storms along the cold front with
occasional hail/wind Monday night.

..Thompson.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will lift across the Great Lakes Region on
D2/Tuesday with a surface low moving east across southern Ontario
and Quebec. A trailing cold front will be located from the Great
Lakes south into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
Southern Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing across this
boundary at the beginning of the D2/Tuesday period.

...Great Lakes Vicinity to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Some convection may be ongoing across the cold front towards the
beginning of the D2 period, with additional development likely by
the afternoon along the eastward shifting cold front. Enhanced
mid-level flow aloft and weak to moderate instability will support
organized storms with potential for damaging winds and isolated
large hail. Additional afternoon thunderstorm development may extend
into the Northeast with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to Southern Plains...
Convection will be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid
Mississippi Valley driven by the cold front and potential cold pool propagation. These boundaries will be the focus of
re-intensification of convection in the afternoon. Mid-level flow
aloft will be weaker across the region but sufficient shear for
organization should remain in place. A plume of more favorable
moderate to strong instability will be available across
central/northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. With afternoon
development, steep low to mid level lapse rates and moderate
instability will support potential for a few large hail reports.
With time, upscale growth will support a downstream damaging wind
risk.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181722
SWODY2
SPC AC 181720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley
Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an
associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great
Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the
central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough
moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley.

At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains
disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through
southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will
move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing
extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and
southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries
associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for
diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development.


...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England...

A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer
across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to
perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with
daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across
the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as
2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level
warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario
short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and
ahead of the synoptic cold front.

The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is
forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England,
where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible.
Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be
supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of
marginally severe hail are also possible.


...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or
ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of
the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with
southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest
that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon
across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development
anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective
outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains.
There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances
will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during
the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development.


As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and
associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the
post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX
Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly
low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to
support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant
convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments
capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail
potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with
southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates
and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger
vertical shear.

..Mead.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe
winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191719
SWODY2
SPC AC 191718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected Wednesday
afternoon into night across portions of southwest Texas into eastern
New Mexico. Large hail --potentially in excess of two inches-- will
be the predominant severe-weather hazard. Isolated occurrences of
severe wind and/or marginally severe hail are expected Wednesday
afternoon into early evening from the Cumberland Plateau into
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude short-wave trough will move through the base of an
eastern Canada trough, with a belt of strong mid/upper-level winds overspreading New England. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially
near the Four Corners will weaken Wednesday while moving into
confluent flow over the central High Plains. There is some model
signal for a lower-latitude impulse to move through northern Mexico
into NM and western TX Wednesday afternoon and evening.

In the low levels, a cold front will move south through New England
and the Mid-Atlantic with the western extension of the boundary
weakening through the forecast period across TX.


...Eastern New Mexico into southwest Texas and the Edwards
Plateau...

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s will combine with
steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderately unstable air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg across
portions of southwest TX into the Edwards Plateau. Instability is
expected to decrease with northward extent in the immediate lee of
the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Sangre De Cristo mountains, due to
limited boundary-layer moisture content.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
by mid/late afternoon along favored terrain, with initiation
potentially being aided by the mid-level disturbance mentioned in
the synopsis. A slight enhancement of the mid-level flow is forecast
across the area in association with the disturbance, which will
contribute to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the
instability axis. As such, supercell storm modes appear likely,
especially across southwest TX where the strongest instability is
expected to reside. Large hail potentially in excess of 2" will be
the predominant hazard with the afternoon and early evening storms.
A number of the 12z models suggest that the daytime storms will grow
upscale into an MCS across portions of the Permian Basin and Concho
Valley into Edwards Plateau Wednesday evening into night with a risk
for locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Given the above considerations, a level 2/Slight Risk has been added
where confidence is highest in longer-lived supercell potential.


...Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England...

A hot and a moist air mass is forecast to develop ahead of the front
Wednesday afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg with
minimal capping. Convergence along the front along with terrain
influences are expected to foster a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from northern parts of
the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. The strongest vertical shear is expected to reside to the
north of the surface warm sector, which coupled with poor mid-level
lapse rates, should limit the potential for organized storm modes.
Nonetheless, model soundings indicate the presence of 1.0-1.5 km
deep, well-mixed boundary-layers, which will be supportive of
locally damaging downburst winds through the afternoon into early
evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also
possible.

..Mead.. 05/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210552
SWODY2
SPC AC 210550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.

...Synopsis...
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary
wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the
broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A
surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline
extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low
will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm
front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock
near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the
high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern
New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s
and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across
the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters
through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western
Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail
before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening.
A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of
southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and
morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear
may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail
and strong to severe wind further north.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...
A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky
through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming
northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height
falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley,
with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this
activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large
scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be
marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may
advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition,
guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with
potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211722
SWODY2
SPC AC 211720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible across western parts of Texas and Oklahoma. An isolated
hail threat may extend into central Kansas, with sporadic
occurrences of damaging wind and perhaps a few brief tornadoes from
the central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern and central High Plains Friday
morning will become negatively tilted while translating through the
upper MS Valley, ahead of a weaker, upstream disturbance moving
through the central Rockies into central High Plains. Meanwhile, a
series of lower-latitude disturbances will progress from the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valleys.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from SD into
northwest MN with a trailing cold front advancing east/southeast
through the central Plains, and south into the southern High Plains
where it will link with a secondary low pressure. A dryline is
expected to sharpen through the afternoon from the intersection of
the cold front in the vicinity of the TX South Plains into the
Edwards Plateau. Elsewhere, a surface low is forecast to develop
from western TN into IN/OH with an associated warm front lifting
north into the OH Valley.


...Central and Southern Plains...

An axis of 50s to low 60s dewpoints is expected to reside ahead of
the cold front and dryline, with the steepest mid-level lapse rates
confined to the southern High Plains portion of the warm sector.
Resultant MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg is forecast over western TX into
the southern Panhandle, with instability decreasing with
northeastward extent across KS and NE.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the day
along the front in NE with additional storms forming southwestward
along the boundary during the afternoon from central KS into the
southern TX Panhandle or TX South Plains, with more isolated
development possible south along the dryline. Additional storms are
possible in the immediate post-frontal environment in northeast NE.

The most favorable overlap of moderate instability and around 30 kt
of deep-layer shear is expected to reside over parts of western TX
and the Panhandle where the potential will exist for supercell storm
modes with the predominant hazard being large hail. Storms may tend
to grow upscale into an MCS with a wind and hail threat spreading
into parts of western OK and northwest TX Friday evening.

Lesser-organized multicell structures appear possible from central
KS into southeast NE. The best potential for marginally severe hail
is expected over central KS where comparably (to NE) stronger
instability will develop.


...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast into Ohio Valley...

Some enhancement of the mid-level wind field will occur in
association with the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis. Of
potentially greater importance to severe-weather potential is the
presence of a 25-40 kt low-level jet, which will persist through the
day from the central Gulf Coast north toward the OH River amidst a
moist and marginally to moderately unstable air mass with afternoon
MLCAPE of 500-1500+ J/kg.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected within the
northward-expanding warm sector, with the strongest instability
confined to cloud-free areas where greater daytime heating can
occur. Embedded strong to severe storms will be most probable in
those areas, and given the presence of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear,
some potential for storm organization will exist, despite the
existence of poor mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of stronger
low-level shear (i.e., effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2) is forecast
from eastern MS and western AL through middle TN into OH, along the
low-level jet axis, where a few brief tornadoes appear possible.
Otherwise, locally damaging downburst winds appear to be the primary
hazard.

..Mead.. 05/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...
Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...
A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS
OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on
Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional
severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia
and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in
the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains.
Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High
Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain
will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be
the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts
of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely
scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton
Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially
supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken
to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact.
Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could
develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this
activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear
quickly.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though
slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into
parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out
and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb
winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear
(around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two.
Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this
environment.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints
and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms
appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front
in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded
downbursts may produce damaging winds.

...Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the
region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+
dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps
along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and
severe winds.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...
A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST
IA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts will be possible.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Upper Midwest
will move over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Broad southerly
flow between a surface ridge near the mid MS Valley and a lee trough
over the High Plains will result in some moisture return into parts
of the central Plains and Upper Midwest, though the magnitude of
this moisture return remains somewhat uncertain. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel temperatures atop the
returning moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization by late afternoon.

Broad midlevel height rises are expected across the region, in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, guidance suggests
that one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may aid in at least
isolated diurnal thunderstorm development near a weak surface
trough/dryline from central NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, but veering wind
profiles and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally support
supercells, if surface-based development can be sustained. Large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any
supercell development during the afternoon and evening.

A Level 2/Slight Risk upgrade was considered for parts of the
region, but due to uncertainties regarding low-level moisture and
storm coverage, have opted to maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk, with
a conditional area highlighting very large hail potential, should
any sustained supercells develop.

...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected across the
region, within a moist and uncapped environment. A belt of 20-30 kt
midlevel flow to the east of the mid/upper trough across TX will
provide modest deep-layer shear, but weak midlevel lapse rates will
tend to limit updraft intensity. Locally damaging wind cannot be
ruled out with convection across the region, but the
organized-severe threat currently appears too limited and nebulous
to include probabilities at this time. If a robust MCV emerges from
extensive convection near the Gulf Coast, then somewhat more
organized severe potential could evolve through the day.

...LA Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley vicinity...
Widespread convection is expected to persist from D1/Saturday into
D2/Sunday across parts of the LA Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley, as
the nearly stationary mid/upper trough over TX interacts with rich
moisture. Generally weak flow and lapse rates are currently expected
to limit the organized-severe threat. Any more organized potential
for a brief tornado or locally damaging wind would likely be
contingent on MCV development, but this scenario remains highly
uncertain at this time.

...Lower OH Valley/Allegheny Plateau...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Allegheny Plateau during the afternoon, in association
with the mid/upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region.
Modest midlevel flow will overspread the region and isolated strong
storms will be possible, but weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit severe potential.

..Dean.. 05/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240547
SWODY2
SPC AC 240546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains
on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid
warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to
deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely
scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the
Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the
Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to
the Midwest and in the Southeast.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into
the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the
more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will
overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak
mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the
best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by
the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm
development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe
potential.

...Southern NM into west TX...
An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New
Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the
Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a
strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains
displaced to the east across western Texas.

...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight
D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on
how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of
severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the
placement of mesoscale features remains too low.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241734
SWODY2
SPC AC 241732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN
ARROWHEAD REGION...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...PARTS
OF NM/FAR WEST TX...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest,
Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.

...MN Arrowhead region...
While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest
midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and
potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of
a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the
afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface
winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep
lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this
region.

...Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA...
While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may
support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest
IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will
support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.

...NM into Far West Texas...
Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts
of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough
over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest
across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a
relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven
clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread
into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of
strong to localized severe gusts.

...Southeast...
A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf
Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of
a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded
downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage,
with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development.
A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA,
where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then
there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this
Marginal Risk area.

...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern
OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized,
with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance
regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal
supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region,
if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for
organized convection.

..Dean.. 05/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250550
SWODY2
SPC AC 250548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D2/Tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low
across the Pacific Northwest and height rises with a building high
downstream across the central/northern US. A shortwave with multiple
embedded vorticity maximas will move across Texas. This will be the
focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon.


...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas...
As forcing for ascent increases across Texas Tuesday afternoon,
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Davis
Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin.
Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to
around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely include a few supercells and
multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts. Forecast soundings indicate low-level SRH may increase
through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some
increase in tornado potential.

Through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into
portions of south Texas. Should cells be able to maintain cold pool organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern
Texas coast. The Slight Risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward
expansion was given to the Marginal Risk to account for this
potential.

...Montana...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough
across portions of southern Idaho into Montana. Modest instability
and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may
allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe
hail and severe gusts.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251734
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas
into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including
potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.

...Eastern New Mexico and West/south-central Texas...
Forcing for ascent will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon via
a lead shortwave trough, with increasing thunderstorm development
expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the
southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with
increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kt. Mode will likely
include initially discrete supercells and multicell clusters capable
of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a
tornado risk as low-level winds/SRH increase particularly late in
the day across parts of the Permian Basin. Storms should grow
upscale by evening as they progress east-southeastward Tuesday night
toward south-central Texas with at least some continued severe
potential.

...Montana/Northern Intermountain West...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into evening,
aided by forcing for ascent related to the amplifying upper trough
and the upper-jet exit region. Modest instability and strengthening
deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few
stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and
locally severe wind gusts.

...Upper Midwest including parts of Wisconsin/Minnesota...
While influenced by upper ridging and weak overall forcing for
ascent, a moist/moderately unstable environment will exist
along/south of generally southward-shifting front. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is plausible particularly
into peak heating. Diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates,
upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within a weak vertical shear (20-30
kt effective) could yield some pulse-type/multicellular storms
capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds.

...Northern Maine...
As a shortwave trough/mid-level jet streak approaches from Quebec, a
few strong or locally severe storms could develop into the region
Tuesday late afternoon or early evening. Some questions linger
regarding the degree of destabilization of timing of relevant
features, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for
a potential need for severe probabilities.

..Guyer.. 05/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of
Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few
damaging gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as
a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward
the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the
Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a
trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with
strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common,
aiding instability.

Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central
CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the
afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating
within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving
northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.

Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper
trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA
within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This
activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the
air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this
activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass
should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates
aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak
heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity,
with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer
shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe
wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early
evening.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261700
SWODY2
SPC AC 261658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday
over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
A strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across Ontario on
Wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring
over much of the northeast states. At the surface, the primary
surface boundary will extend from southern OH across WV/MD into
VA/DE. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be
present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development
of scattered thunderstorms from eastern KY to the coast. Storms
will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening
through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately
strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. This would support a
risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher
terrain of western NC with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.

...TX Panhandle...
A shortwave trough currently over eastern NM will continue to rotate
northward across the Plains on Wednesday, with the upper thermal
trough present over eastern CO/western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles.
A convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across
the northern TX panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating
occurring to the south of front. This should provide sufficient destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by
late afternoon. Despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep
mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of
multicell storms capable of large hail.

..Hart.. 05/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270526
SWODY2
SPC AC 270525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few
damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

...Synopsis & Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a
leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from UT northward across
ID, OR and WA. Cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb
winds enhancing deep-layer shear. A surface trough will also deepen
during the afternoon roughly from UT into eastern WA, with strong
heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.

Scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over
central OR, with additional activity extending northeastward across
northern ID, eastern WA and northwest MT. Though total CAPE values
are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will
exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates. This will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few
bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.

Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and
evening from KS/OK into the Southeast. Winds aloft and shear will be
weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not
expected. Still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271731
SWODY2
SPC AC 271730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible on Thursday over portions of
the Columbia Basin with more isolated storms across the broader
Northwest region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with
some threat for large hail.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently on the western periphery of
the broader mid-level low across California at mid-day Wednesday
will move around the low-pressure center and emerge across the
Northwest on Thursday. East of this low, a strong mid-level ridge
will be maintained across the central CONUS with a mid-level trough
in the east. This pattern will result in a mostly nebulous surface
pattern other than a more defined area of high pressure across the
Great Lakes.

...Northwest...
Low-level moisture will increase across the Columbia Basin Wednesday
and Thursday, primarily from the northeasterly surface flow. This
moisture, combined with cooling air aloft and robust surface
heating, will result in abnormally large instability across the
region. In fact, the GFS/NAM/RAP forecast soundings show record-high
MLCAPE values at OTX tomorrow afternoon. Given the climatological
extreme of these values, it seems unlikely to be as high as forecast
(1500-2000 J/kg). However, even 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE would result in
an environment favorable for severe storms, particularly across
northern Oregon and south-central Washington where even the HRRR
shows 1000 to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Very steep mid-level lapse rates
(near 9 C/km) and moderate shear will also support organized severe
storms.

The timing of the mid-level shortwave trough emerging across Oregon
appears to be well-timed with afternoon peak heating. Therefore,
expect storms to initially form across east-central Oregon and move north-northwestward through the evening. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows
upscale growth into a linear segment which would likely support a
damaging wind threat, particularly given the steep lapse rate
environment. For these reasons, have upgraded to a Level 2 Slight
Risk across portions of the Columbia Basin.

Expanded the wind probabilities across the Cascades slightly as the
environment appears to be favorable to the west of the crests.
However, it appears the marine layer should move into areas such as
Portland prior to the arrival of the storms. Therefore, have kept
severe probabilities east of this zone where the marine layer will
likely have a stabilizing effect.

..Bentley.. 05/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280552
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward northern
Louisiana on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur
across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central
High Plains.

...MT...
An upper low will weaken as it moves from the Great Basin to the
central Rockies, with cool temperatures aloft persisting over much
of the region. A surface trough will deepen over central MT with a
cold front moving across ID and into western MT. Daytime heating and
steepening lapse rates may aid wind gust potential as storms develop
late in the day from western into central MT. Relatively strong
upper-level winds will elongate hodographs, and may support cells
producing marginal hail.

...Central High Plains...
Low-level moisture will spread westward into northern CO and eastern
WY as a low pressure trough develops from MT into eastern CO during
the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints will result in
perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE supporting storms forming from southeast WY
into the Front Range. These storms may produce strong to locally
severe outflow winds.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level jet of 50-70 kt will move into southern NM and
western TX, though midlevel winds will be at or below 30 kt. Strong
heating will occur over the region while southeast surface winds
maintain moisture influx. Storms should form during the afternoon
from eastern NM and spread across western TX and perhaps into
southwest KS. Cool midlevel temperatures may support marginal hail,
though gusty outflow winds will be the most common threat.
Additionally, a few storms may occur farther east from OK into
northeast TX, AR and LA where dewpoints and instability will be
greater. Any storms that can form within the uncapped air mass would
likely move southeastward with isolated strong gust potential.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281720
SWODY2
SPC AC 281718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward Kansas on
Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur across western
Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated severe storms
are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A closed low across the Great Basin will become an open wave on
Friday and start to advance northeast toward the central Rockies. As
this occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and
central High Plains and into eastern Montana. A strong mid-level
trough will move southward across eastern Canada into the Northeast.


...Western into north-central Montana...
Weak to moderate instability will build across western Montana on
Friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level
temperatures cool. Mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 25 to
30 knots across western Montana which may provide sufficient shear
for a few more organized storms. These storms should develop by
mid-afternoon and move northward, potentially growing upscale into
one or more linear structures.

...Central High Plains...
Surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across
northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Friday. This will lead to
weak to moderate instability across the region. In addition to
typical terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level
shortwave trough may emerge across the region and provide additional
support for storm development. Shear is forecast to remain
relatively weak, but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse
rates will support some threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps
isolated large hail.

...Southern High Plains into the central Plains...
A southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from
northern Mexico into the southern High Plains Friday
afternoon/evening. This ~40 knot jet streak will overspread portions
of the southern High Plains and the dryline. This should provide
ample shear for storm organization during the afternoon/evening.
Greater storm coverage and storm organization may exist between
Midland and Amarillo at the nose of this stronger mid-level flow.
However, it appears the greater moisture will remain farther east
and thus, storm intensity maybe somewhat mitigated. Therefore,
hail/wind probabilities remain 5% at this time.

Additional storms may develop from central Kansas to north-central
Oklahoma along a frontal boundary amid weak isentropic ascent.
Greater instability is expected within this zone, however, mid-level
flow is forecast to be weaker which may challenge storm
organization.

..Bentley.. 05/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290559
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South
Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana...
At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on
Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains.
At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern
High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction
over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in
moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over
much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern
High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move
north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into
southern South Dakota.

To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat
is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of
strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska
and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms
will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but
instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe
threat more localized.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined
dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas
south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To
the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the
east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be
relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291726
SWODY2
SPC AC 291724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate from the Rockies into the
central Plains on Saturday as a lee surface cyclone develops across
western Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas
into the Texas Panhandle.

...Western Nebraska into southwest South Dakota...
A dryline will bend northwestward from central Kansas into the
Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday afternoon. As the mid-level trough
overspreads the region, inhibition will erode and storms are
expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Most guidance shows some
mixing of the shallow moisture across the region during the
afternoon. This casts some uncertainty on storm coverage across far
southern Nebraska and into northern Kansas. However, farther
northwest, where mid-level forcing will be stronger, storms are
anticipated across the Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South
Dakota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity. It is worth noting, that some guidance
which is a bit more progressive with northwestward moisture
transport would be more supportive for a tornado threat across the
region. However, this appears to be a more outlier solution rather
than a likely solution. Therefore, the 2% tornado probabilities seem appropriate.

...Kansas to West Texas...
Isolated storm development is possible along the dryline from West
Texas to central Kansas Saturday afternoon. Upper level forcing will
be focused farther north and convergence will be weak along the
dryline from the Kansas/Oklahoma border southward. In addition,
shallow moisture is forecast to mix out ahead of the dryline.
However, despite these mitigating factors, strong surface heating is
expected which would result in a mostly uncapped airmass along the
length of the dryline. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected
to remain across the region which could result in a supercell or
two.

A more concentrated zone of storms may exist from southern Kansas
into central Kansas, closer to the upper-level forcing, where
convergence along the dryline is also greater. However, within this
zone, shear may be marginal (20 to 25 knots) within a relatively
weak area of mid-level flow. Therefore, higher probabilities have
not been added.

...Western Missouri...
Within a zone of weak isentropic ascent Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, strong to isolated severe storms may develop from
far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. A few storms may be
capable of large hail.

..Bentley.. 05/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the
Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.

...Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central
Plains/Northern Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the
northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At
the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from
south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and
central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to
near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of
the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast
zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the
afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage
expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind
gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue
into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also
be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an
axis of low-level moisture and instability.

Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in
moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to
peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited,
isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the
late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat
would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301735
SWODY2
SPC AC 301733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE OZARKS...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across
the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday, with cool midlevel
temperatures. Mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch
from CO into KS and NE, behind the upper wave. This will also result
in midlevel drying across the central Plains.

A surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of
the High Plains, with low pressure centers over SD and western TX
during the afternoon. High pressure will exist from the Great Lakes
to the East Coast with an upper trough over the Northeast, and
southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of
this surface high from the lower MS Valley northwestward across the
MO Valley.

...Dakotas southeastward into AR...
Storms may be ongoing over southern MO or northern AR Sunday
morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting
continued unstable inflow. Conditionally, an MCS is possible, with
potential to persist southeastward into AR and perhaps even MS later
in the day. This is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would
be possible.

Farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper
wave from central SD into ND. Temperatures aloft will be cool and
may support hail despite weak shear.

To the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern KS into
western MO late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to
strong instability develops. Some of this may depend on how much
early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist.
Conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and
brief tornado risk.

...OK into western TX...
Strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from
north-central OK into northwest TX. Weak surface convergence, 60s F
dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield
isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. These storms would likely
be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.

Farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest TX,
where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the
area during the afternoon. Scattered storms are likely here, with
locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 05/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and
High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.
Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central High Plains along and near the instability axis.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central High Plains.

Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern
Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north
to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Southeast...
A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Central Plains...
An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across
MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level
southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High
Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain
cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the
Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This
will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as
daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500
J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt
over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height.

Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along
the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding
into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be
possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise,
storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases.

Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential
near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and
surface convergence will be maximized.

...From MO into MS/AL...
An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday
morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the
outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear
whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain
Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR
into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds
aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty
to organization potential. However, strong instability with near
3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong
to severe gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/31/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010601
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010728
SWODY2
SPC AC 010727

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011730
SWODY2
SPC AC 011728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and
marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from
southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
A slow-moving upper low will exist from northern MT into southern
SK, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern
MT/WY into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front
will develop from central WY into western ND by 00Z. Cool
temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime
heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield
moderate instability ahead of the front. Effective shear in excess
of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of
damaging hail. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but
some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00Z and may
support MCS potential during the evening with areas of damaging
winds. A couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern WY
with the initial activity, or into ND where temp/dewpoint
depressions may be less.

...Central to Southern High Plains...
Although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region,
temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 C at 500 mb
as far south as NM and OK. Easterly surface winds will maintain a
moist air mass into KS/CO, with southeasterly winds into NM.
Scattered storms are likely after 21Z along the Front Range and
extending south across central and eastern NM, and some of this
activity will persist into southwest NE, western KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles late. Locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear
will remain weak.

Isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the
afternoon from southwest KS into western OK, with localize wind and
hail potential.

...Far southern GA and AL into northern FL...
An upper trough will dive southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and
into the Southeast with a cold front pushing south across GA and
into AL during the day and into northern FL late. A moist air mass
will exist ahead of the front, with MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg.
Storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with
increasing storm coverage. Deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a
few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as
they move southeastward from southern GA into northern FL including
the Jacksonville area. Additional storms are likely over the eastern
FL Peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence,
with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 06/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020549
SWODY2
SPC AC 020547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday
morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the
forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper
MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere,
a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from
the southern into central High Plains.

At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will
move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes
through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary
surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD
Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary
settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.


...Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon/night...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving
through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the
early-day convection could linger through the morning into early
afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which
could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in
those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud
debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction
with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg.

Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the
cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support
robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across
portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and
northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a
vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk
shear, which will support organized storm modes, including
supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of
relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat
for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In
addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon
into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD
from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the
secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is
forecast.

Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a
strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of
storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD
and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.


...Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening...

The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across
portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent
associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is
expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with
comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains,
and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave
trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will
support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas,
with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds.
Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern
into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more
organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms
appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021721
SWODY2
SPC AC 021719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level ridge across the western Great Lakes will
deamplify through the day on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a mid-level
shortwave trough will progress across the Canadian Prairies with an
additional mid-level trough across the Northwest. An expansive area
of surface high pressure will lead to stable conditions across much
of the eastern CONUS. A weak surface trough will extend from the
primary low pressure center in southern Canada and into the
northern/central Plains.

...Northern Plains...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing on Wednesday morning
across portions of western and central South Dakota amid weak
isentropic ascent. An isolated hail threat may exist with these
morning storms. By mid-afternoon, storms are expected to develop as
height falls overspread a southeastward moving cold front. 40+ knots
of effective shear will support supercell mode with a threat for
large hail (some very large). As the front continues southeastward,
expect upscale growth into a linear segment with an increasing
severe wind threat. A tornado threat may also exist during the
supercellular phase, particularly if a stronger 30+ knot low-level
jet develops as forecast by some guidance. This tornado threat could
also be aided by any potential outflow boundaries remaining from
morning convection.

Farther south, isolated to scattered storms are possible along a
diffuse dryline. Mid-level flow is very weak farther south which
will limit storm organization. However, moderate instability and an
uncapped airmass will support some marginal hail/wind threat.

...West Texas into southern New Mexico...
A cluster of storms associated with a weak mid-level shortwave
trough will likely be ongoing across portions of West Texas on
Wednesday morning. Moderate destabilization south and southwest of
this activity is expected during the day. This zone will likely be a
focus for strong to isolated severe storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Modest deep-layer flow may result in a messy
storm mode, but moderate instability and steep lapse rates will
support the potential for some large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030532
SWODY2
SPC AC 030530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude, cyclonic flow regime will be maintained across the north-central U.S. with several embedded disturbances moving through
that airflow pattern. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes with that
boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley to eastern WY,
where it will link with a lee cyclone. A dryline/lee trough will
extend south from the low pressure through the central and southern
High Plains.


...Northern and Central Plains...

A short-wave trough embedded in the cyclonic flow initially over the
northern Rockies Thursday morning will shift into the northern High
Plains by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level winds and forcing for
ascent downstream from that feature will progressively overspread a
moist and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) upslope regime
present across portions of southeast MT, northeast WY, and western
SD, to the north of the surface boundary. Those processes will
contribute to initial storm development in those areas by mid
afternoon with the kinematic environment favoring supercells capable
of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

Additional storm development will be possible farther east along the
front in central/eastern SD and northern NE amidst a moderately
unstable environment (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) with weakening
vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent. As
such, a mix of multi-cell and some supercell structures appear
possible with an associated risk for large hail and severe wind
gusts.

Those two separate regimes may consolidate into one or more MCSs
Thursday evening/night, with a continued risk for damaging winds and
sporadic large hail.

Elsewhere, diurnally enhanced storms will be possible south along
the lee trough into northeast CO, as well as ahead of a sheared
vorticity maximum moving through portions of northeast KS, eastern
NE, and IA. Steep lapse rates and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear
may support isolated, high-based storms in the former area with some
wind and hail threat. Poorer mid-level lapse rates and weaker
vertical shear expected in the latter areas would limit
severe-weather potential to mainly wet microburst activity. Model
soundings do show some low-level hodograph curvature, so a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the
pre-frontal warm sector Thursday; however the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will largely
contribute to a narrow axis of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg by
afternoon. The glancing influence of a mid-level low moving into the
northwest Ontario coupled with convergence along the front are
expected to foster widely scattered thunderstorms by mid to late
afternoon.

The presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
multi-cells and transient supercell structures capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Modest
strengthening of the low-level jet is noted across northern WI into
the western UP of MI late Thursday afternoon into evening, which
could yield sufficient low-level shear for some tornado risk. No
probabilities will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty
in the degree of instability in those areas.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.

...Synopsis...
Several weak mid-level perturbations will exist within mostly zonal
flow across the northern CONUS on Thursday with weak ridging across
the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will result in
stable conditions across much of the eastern CONUS with weak lee
troughing across the central High Plains.

...Northern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Rockies on Thursday
morning will cross into the Plains by the afternoon. As this occurs,
moderate mid-level flow and weak height falls will overspread a
moderately unstable environment across the Plains. As a surface low
moves slowly southeast from eastern Wyoming into northeast Colorado
during the day, upslope flow will strengthen to its north. Initial
storms within this upslope flow regime will likely be supercellular
given 40 to 50 knots of shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with
weak low-level shear. Some tornado threat may exist within this zone
along the front where low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced.
However, this more favorable region should be localized and
conditional on a storm in the right location.

Additional storms may exist farther east along the front where
moderate instability and weak to moderate shear exists. Large hail
will be the initial threat, however, as storms from this area and
storms from the west congeal into the evening, a greater severe wind
threat is expected to materialize.

...Central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and vicinity...
Guidance has recently trended stronger with mid-level flow across
Kansas and southern Nebraska. As a result, sufficient shear may
exist for multicellular/marginal supercell storms capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts. The Marginal risk has been expanded
across Kansas and into far northern Oklahoma to reflect this threat.

...Upper Midwest...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop
across portions of Minnesota into northern Wisconsin south of a
frontal zone. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected to
overspread this region with weak height falls through the day. The
primary limiting factor to a greater severe threat will be modest
lapse rates and cloud cover. Multicells and occasional supercells
will be possible within this region with a primary threat for large
hail and severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS... MUCH OF IA...INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across
portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the
northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building
ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface,
the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a
front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI
southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the
front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline
extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.


...Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes...

Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep
mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the
NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as
3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward
extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for
early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across
the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of
the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into
early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central
NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset
somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes
will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a
subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with
significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.

Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front
into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong
instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large
to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more
concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front,
an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.

Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the
diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly
where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will
be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and
modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated
severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper
Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm
advection along a westerly low-level jet.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH KANSAS...MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across
portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough in the western Great Lakes Friday
morning is forecast to weaken as it moves eastward through the day.
A mid-level ridge will build across the central/northern Plains
through the day with a strong trough approaching the Northwest. At
the surface, high pressure will move off the Southeast coast with
weak lee troughing across the central High Plains vicinity within an
otherwise nebulous surface pattern.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely
from northern Missouri into Iowa and southeast Wisconsin. Strong
instability is expected to develop south/west of this activity where
steep lapse rates advect over a moist airmass featuring low 70s
dewpoints. Height rises across this region (southeast Nebraska into
southwest Iowa) cast some doubt on diurnal storm development.
Several members of the 12Z HREF show storms developing within this
zone, but most others (most notably the HRRR, do not). Therefore,
while the environment would support strong supercells with a threat
for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, the
uncertainty related to storm coverage precludes higher probabilities
at this time.

Regardless of if afternoon storms develop, additional convection is
expected during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. These
storms may initially begin as supercells, but will likely grow into
a linear segment relatively quickly. Given the strengthening
low-level jet and forecast soundings that do not show clearly
elevated thermodynamic profiles, expanded the 2% tornado
probabilities east to account for some tornado threat during the
evening hours.

Additional storms are possible farther northeast from northeast Iowa
into Wisconsin along a diffuse cold front. While mid-level flow (and
thus deep-layer shear) will be stronger across this region,
instability is forecast to be more limited due to that
morning/previous night convection that moved across the region and a
lack of a strong low-level moisture advection into the region.
Therefore, some strong to isolated severe storms are possible, but
may be too isolated/marginal for higher probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050538
SWODY2
SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern
Rockies.


...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.


...Northern High Plains...

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.


...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.


...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Saturday with a ridge building
across the Upper Midwest into central Canada with an amplifying
trough across the Northeast and another trough across the Northwest.
A surface low will deepen across southern Quebec during the day with
a cold front extending into the Ohio Valley. A lee cyclone will also
develop across eastern Montana as the mid-level trough advances
eastward.

...Ohio Valley to the Northeast...
A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across
parts of the Ohio Valley. These storms should gradually weaken
through the morning as they move east. West-southwesterly low-level
flow will strengthen through the morning as the surface low deepens
and the pressure gradient tightens. This will result in moisture
advection ahead of the cold front from Ohio into Pennsylvania and
New York. Clouds from morning convection will limit destabilization
initially, however, once these clouds clear, an uncapped environment
with moderate instability is expected to develop rather quickly
along the cold front. Continued mid-level ascent and convergence
along the front should support thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Moderate (40 knot) flow aloft should support storm
organization including the potential for supercells and linear
clusters. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threats. More widespread wind damage may occur from far eastern Ohio
across Pennsylvania and into southeast New York and northern New
Jersey where the strongest instability and shear will be present and
a broken line of storms appears likely.

...Northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota...
Destabilization will occur during the day across eastern Montana and
western North Dakota as southeasterly surface winds strengthen ahead
of the deepening lee cyclone and advect low 60s dewpoints into the
region. As height falls overspread this area, storms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across central and southeast Montana. As
these storms move into the greater instability to the
east/northeast, the large hail/severe wind threat is expected to
increase. The strong surface heating and steep low-mid level lapse
rates across the northern Plains, combined with the increasing
shear, will provide an environment supporting 70-80 mph wind gusts.
In fact some guidance, such as the 12Z NSSL WRF, show an MCS with a
80+ knot rear-inflow jet which could support 80+ mph wind gusts if
it were to materialize.

...Southern Plains...
A moist environment with 70+F dewpoints will be present across the
southern Plains on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast as
temperatures cool aloft with a weak mid-level shortwave trough
overspreading the area. This moist, unstable airmass and 30 to 35
knots of shear will support organized storms including a few
supercells capable of isolated large hail and/or water-loaded
downbursts.

..Bentley.. 06/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060532
SWODY2
SPC AC 060530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the
northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally
damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A
brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.

...Synopsis...

A vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks
within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning
are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern High
Plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the Pacific
Northwest coast. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will
progress through the Northeast, while a more loosely organized
trough progresses through the central and southern Plains through
the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal
trough over the western Dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front
moving out of the northern Rockies. That frontal system will
continue east into the ND-MN Red River Valley, and southeast into
the central High Plains by Monday morning. Elsewhere, more of a
backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the
Northeast into Mid-Atlantic.


...Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas...

A hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of
the pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon,
with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to
an axis of moderate to strong instability. Moderate instability is
expected to extend into eastern MT and northeast WY, owing to
low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. Initial storm development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of
the instability axis across southeast MT into north-central and
northeast WY as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and
forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. A
separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon
into evening over the western Dakotas as the cold front merges with
the pre-frontal trough.

The MT/WY storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared
environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail.
Initially marginal vertical shear with the western Dakotas storm
regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. Some tornado threat may
materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central ND
where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist,
lower-LCL boundary layer. The magnitude of the threat will be
contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more
linear forcing along the cold front.


... Central Virginia into the Chesapeake Bay Area...

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal
wind shift moving into the area from the north. Convergence along
that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level
trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across the discussion area. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures
are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the
presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of
northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.


...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas...

Forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through
the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an
increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. That scenario
would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon,
leaving severe-storm potential in question. However, there is a
signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during
the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level
shear. A concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize,
especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the
larger convective footprint. That notion is generally supported by
the 00z HREF mean 0-1 km SRH, which shows values increasing to
100-150 m2/s2 by Sunday evening.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061736
SWODY2
SPC AC 061734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some
significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the
northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a
brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas.

...Northern Plains...
A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and
across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The
southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across
WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the
surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains,
ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern
WY late in the day.

Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during
the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface
trough from western ND to the Black Hills.

Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse
rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these
initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern
ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail
may occur as well.

With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant
wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate
northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong
rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface
behind the activity.

...Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO...
A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward
MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the
Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop
northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability
and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is
anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind
profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with
height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into
the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that
develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible.

...Southeast VA into far northeast NC...
A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast,
with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface
trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the
Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during
the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer
lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal
instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near
the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally
damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070533
SWODY2
SPC AC 070531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.


...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.


...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.


...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.


...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071734
SWODY2
SPC AC 071732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening
in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur
from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with
temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow
aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains
during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the
south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High
Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into
eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of
backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will
accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead
of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak
surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of
the western Dakotas surface high.

Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and
lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the
moist air mass.

...Central Plains...
An area of moderate instability will develop across the central
Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of
the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain
from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper
low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable
effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor
supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of
wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening.
Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or
two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from
northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far
north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop
within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western
OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts.

..Far Northern Plains...
Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will
accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models
are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms
with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and
instability increase.

...Southeast MO into western TN...
A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating
occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing
MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level
shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080548
SWODY2
SPC AC 080546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.
Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible
across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.
Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday
morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a
more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level
jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday
night.

At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT
into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or
dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into
northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a
warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will
reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.


...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...

A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm
front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with
MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the
poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead
short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the
surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the
western Dakotas.

Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to
the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells,
which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the
western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large
hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is
expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment.
Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs
with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what
the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level
shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10%
unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group
one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm
mode.

At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along
coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging
wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.


...Central Plains...

Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the
upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results
in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the
latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate
the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS,
perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form
in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal
deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into
Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of
high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms
may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern
KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly
unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential
would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the
possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is
low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional
probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been
added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.


...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley...

A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or
quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the
region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher
unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for
large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that
can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081737
SWODY2
SPC AC 081736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.

...Synopsis...

A negatively tilted upper trough will be oriented from the Pacific
Northwest to the southern Great Basin Tuesday morning. This feature
will pivot east through the period, become positioned from southwest Saskatchewan to the central High Plains. A belt of enhanced
southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the
northern/central Plains ahead of the aforementioned trough.
Meanwhile, an intensifying low-level jet will develop during the evening/overnight hours across much of the Plains toward the Upper
Midwest.

At the surface, low pressure over eastern MT will gradually deepen
and shift east/northeast across the northern Plains and adjacent
Canadian Prairies. A Pacific front/dryline feature will extend
southward from the low across the western Dakotas and NE. A
secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of eastern
CO/western KS/southwest NE, where a dryline will extend from western
KS southward into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. Further east, a
quasi-warm front feature is expected to extend northwest to
southeast from MN to the Mid-MS Valley. This boundary may gradually
lift northward through the evening/overnight in response to the
low/midlevel mass response/increasing low-level jet.

These boundaries will be a focus for severe storm development during
the afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Northern Plains vicinity...

Convection is expected to develop near the ND/MT border vicinity by
mid/late afternoon along the surface boundary. A warm front should
be well north of the Dakotas over the southern Canadian Prairies,
and increasing southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid
60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Cooling aloft will result
in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer
moisture, supporting MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg.
South/southwesterly low-level winds will become southwesterly in the
mid/upper levels, resulting in supercell wind profiles and 40+ kt
effective shear magnitudes. Initial supercell storms are expected,
though these storms may be somewhat higher-based within the more
modest boundary layer moisture across the western Dakotas/far
eastern MT. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these
storms initially.

As convection develops eastward into the axis of greater low-level
moisture and strong instability, severe potential will increase,
particularly with respect to swaths of damaging winds and tornadoes.
As the low-level jet increases during the evening, and given
mid/upper flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary, upscale
growth into one or more linear segments is expected. As cold pool
consolidation occurs, potential for significant wind gusts (greater
than 65 kt) is expected to increase across parts of central ND.
Low-level shear will also support tornado potential, whether
semi-discrete supercells can be maintained, or with mesovortex
generation within linear bands. As such, have left tornado
probabilities similar to the prior forecast. Given the expectation
that storm mode will become more linear with time, hail
probabilities have been lowered (removed 45 percent). Nevertheless,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells that can be maintained or are embedded within linear
segments.

...NE/SD/Mid-MO Valley vicinity...

Convection emanating northeast from NE may eventually grow upscale
into an MCS during the nighttime hours and spread into eastern SD
and the Mid-MO Valley area. This scenario is uncertain. However,
given ample deep-layer flow, extreme instability and at least subtle large-scale ascent over the region as the low-level jet overspreads
this area overnight, this scenario seems plausible. If this occurs,
damaging wind potential will be possible, and severe probabilities
have been expanded eastward across portions of the region.

...KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM...

High-based convection is expected to develop along the surface
dryline during the late afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing will
support steep low-level lapse rates. 500 mb temperatures around -10
C also will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km per
regional forecast soundings. Deep layer shear will not be as strong
as further north, but strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles will support severe wind gusts. There is some
potential that if storms can be maintained further east toward
better low-level moisture as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, a swath of significant wind gusts could occur across the
southwest KS vicinity. Severe probabilities have been increased
across portions of the area given a favorable environment and strong
signal within most forecast guidance.

...Mid-MS Valley into Lower OH Valley...

A quasi-warm front/moisture boundary will overlap the region from
northwest to southeast, and is likely to lift northward toward Lake
MI overnight. Large-scale ascent will remain weak until late in the
period. Nevertheless, strong instability within a very moist and
unstable airmass will support isolated severe wind gusts potential
through peak heating with any storms that develop. Additional storms
may develop overnight from WI into northern IL as the low-level jet
noses into the region resulting in strong warm advection atop the
surface boundary. While this activity may remain elevated above the
nocturnal stable layer, some potential for strong gusts or marginal
hail is possible.

..Leitman.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090541
SWODY2
SPC AC 090540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains,
and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Synopsis...

An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to
deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night.
That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet
streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem
with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially
over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate
northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the
leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday
morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening,
while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary
from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day
before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect
the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature
extending southwest into western TX.


...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and
Southern Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal
low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the
early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to
focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by
early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late
afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western
WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern
KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.

Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon
into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across
the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.

The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe
storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail
and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures
by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into
Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for
75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode
transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is
expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of
eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.

Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS
into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of
instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor
organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large
hail during the afternoon and evening hours.

A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night
into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong
warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a
50+ kt low-level jet.


...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance
moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some
enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear
increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe
storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091722
SWODY2
SPC AC 091721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with
this system will overspread the Upper MS Valley vicinity in tandem
with an intensifying low-level jet during the late afternoon into
the nighttime hours, providing ample support for organized
convection.

At the surface, a quasi-warm front/moisture gradient is noted from north-central MN into northern Lower MI in model guidance during the
morning. This boundary may lift northward through the day, though
some influence from the Great Lakes may maintain this gradient
across northern WI/MI. Otherwise the surface cold front will be
located from northwest MN into northwest KS by midday. This boundary
will march eastward through the period, becoming oriented from Upper
MI/central WI to southeast NE by Thursday morning. The southern
extent of the front will stall over KS as a surface low deepens
across the central Plains overnight in response to another upper
shortwave trough ejecting over the Rockies/High Plains.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity into northeast KS...

A somewhat complex scenario is evident for Wednesday, with potential
for more than one round of severe storms possible for parts of the
region, particularly IA/WI/IL. This complex scenario will be
influence by potential remnant MCVs and outflows from Day 2/Tuesday
convection persisting into Wednesday morning or migrating into the
area by early afternoon ahead of the main synoptic front. Additional
convection will then also be possible along the main front late
afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the region,
with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Steep
lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will support
moderate to strong instability from 2000-4000 J/kg. Initial storm
development will be supercells given favorable vertically veering
shear profiles with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes over a large
area. With time, one or more bowing clusters may develop via cold
pool consolidation and linear organization along the cold front as a
40+ kt low-level jet develops by early evening. Initial large to
very large hail and a strong tornado risk will accompany discrete
cells. Damaging wind potential will be greater with more linear
storm mode and some gusts could be greater than 75 mph with these
organized linear modes.

During the early evening, additional convection is expected to
develop along the surface boundary from northeast KS into northwest
MO and southern IA. Some forecast guidance (particularly the RAP)
suggests this zone may be particularly favorable for supercell
development as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large
hail, damaging gusts a possibly a strong tornado will be possible
with this convection along the southwest extent of the surface
front. Overnight, additional storms may develop across eastern NE
into western IA in a warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough
ejecting into the central High Plains after 06z. This activity will
likely be elevated, but would still pose a risk for large hail and
perhaps strong wind gusts.

...South-central KS into western OK and the TX Panhandle...

Vertical shear will become more limited with southwest extent on
Wednesday. Capping also may limit storm development/coverage into
the TX Panhandle. Nevertheless, any storms that do development will
likely be somewhat higher-based and pose a risk for strong outflow
winds. Large to very large hail will also be possible with any
longer-lived storms given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong
instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs.

...Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...

A weak midlevel shortwave trough will migrate across the region on
Wednesday. This will result in modestly enhanced vertical shear as
midlevel flow increases during peak heating. At the surface, rich
boundary layer moisture will overspread the area. Dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F and strong heating into the 80s F will result in
moderate destabilization. Morning convection may be ongoing across
portions of the Delmarva vicinity, resulting in uncertainty with
regards to the extent of afternoon severe potential, but at least
isolated potential for strong gusts is possible from NY/PA/NJ
southward into the Delmarva.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100547
SWODY2
SPC AC 100545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and
destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of
damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern
Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds of 60-80+ kt. Elsewhere, northwest flow pattern
will prevail in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a
series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.

At the surface, low pressure initially over north-central KS
Thursday morning will develop into central lower MI by Thursday
night. The surface low will be developing along a composite
outflow-warm front that will be rapidly lifting north through the
Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front
will advance southeast through the lower MO and mid MS Valleys, with
the southwestward extension of the boundary settling south into the
southern Plains.


...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and
upper Great Lakes...

There is good model agreement that a cluster of severe storms,
including supercells, will be ongoing at 12z Thursday across the mid
MO Valley, immediately northeast of the surface low and within a
zone of strong, low-level warm advection. The early-day storms are
expected to grow upscale into an organized MCS with embedded
supercell and bowing structures across IA by mid to late morning
amidst a rapidly destabilizing air mass, which will be coincident
with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, the potential
for tornadoes (some strong) and corridors of destructive winds in
excess of 75 mph is expected to increase significantly during the
morning. The intensifying MCS and its related destructive wind and
tornado threat is expected to move into southern WI and northern IL
by early to mid afternoon, and eventually into lower MI by late
afternoon into evening.

An additional wave of supercells and/or bowing structures is
expected to develop along the trailing outflow from the lead MCS, as
well as along the cold front from eastern IA and northern IL into
the mid MS Valley during the afternoon into evening. Those storms
will be capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds with significant gusts, which could become widespread should
storm mode transition to a bowing line.


...Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon
along the cold front amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air
mass. The models indicate the strongest deep-layer shear remaining
within the post-frontal environment. Nonetheless, there is some
signal for 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear to cross the eastern KS
and western MO segment of the front at an oblique angle, which will
be supportive of supercell storm modes with a risk for large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear vectors are
forecast to align largely parallel with the front across the
southern Plains, which may contribute to downshear storm seeding,
leading to more messy modes. Nonetheless, the degree of instability
will favor vigorous up/downdrafts capable of large hail and damaging
winds.

...Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians...

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s are
expected to yield a weakly capped and moderate to strongly unstable
afternoon air mass. Forcing for ascent associated with the
disturbances mentioned in the synopsis are expected to foster
multiple clusters of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds,
especially if organized cold pools can develop. There is some model
signal that a corridor of slightly stronger low-level and deep-layer
shear will materialize across the lower Hudson Valley Thursday
afternoon, which would support some potential for supercells capable
of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101733
SWODY2
SPC AC 101731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN
IOWAS....NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI....NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging will be
maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this
period, while the westerlies begin to trend a bit more zonal across
the northern tier, in the wake of a broad, deep occluding cyclone
slowly migrating northeastward toward southwestern Hudson Bay. A
significant short wave trough turning to the east of the northern
Rockies, to the south of the cyclone, at the outset of the period,
is still forecast to pivot across southern portions of the mid
Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes Thursday through
Thursday night. This is likely to be accompanied by the
northeastward migration of an associated secondary surface frontal
low from the central Great Plains across and northeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to build through the
day across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, with
one or two perturbations digging within weak northwesterly flow
further downstream, across the Allegheny Mountains and northern Mid
Atlantic vicinity.

A seasonably moist air mass, supportive of moderate to large
potential instability, is likely to be maintained within the warm
sector of the cyclone, to the north of the subtropical ridge.
However, it appears that this may be substantively modified, at
least initially, by outflow from thunderstorm development today
across a large portion of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region.
There have been some adjustments of categorical and probabilistic thunder/severe lines to account for associated uncertainties, and
also attempt to better account for consensus of varying model
output.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into southern Great Plains...
Downstream of the approaching short wave impulse and secondary low,
low-level warm advection on the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb
jet may be providing support for an evolving convective cluster
along/north of outflow boundary across southwestern Iowa at the
outset of the period. This may include storms with potential to
produce severe hail, before perhaps becoming rooted in a
destabilizing boundary layer while spreading with forcing across
Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through Thursday
afternoon. This could include increasing potential for convection
capable of producing wind damage and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Thereafter, the primary forcing for stronger destabilization and
lift to support strong/severe thunderstorm development seems likely
to shift to the intersection of the trailing outflow/secondary
surface low/cold front intersection across southeastern Iowa by late
afternoon. This may include supercell development initially, before
convection grows upscale and organizes in the presence of strong
low-level and deep-layer shear, then propagates into and across the
lower Lake Michigan/Michigan vicinities through Thursday evening,
with potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered additional strong/severe storm development is possible in
the corridor of stronger pre-frontal instability, but weaker
mid/upper support and shear, southwestward through portions of the
southern Great Plains.

...Alleghenies/northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate to locally strong potentially instability probably will
become sufficient to support widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101751
SWODY2
SPC AC 101750

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN
IOWAS....NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI....NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR A FEW TYPOS/WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging will be
maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this
period, while the westerlies begin to trend a bit more zonal across
the northern tier, in the wake of a broad, deep occluding cyclone
slowly migrating northeastward toward southwestern Hudson Bay. A
significant short wave trough turning to the east of the northern
Rockies, to the south of the cyclone, at the outset of the period,
is still forecast to pivot across southern portions of the mid
Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes Thursday through
Thursday night. This is likely to be accompanied by the
northeastward migration of an associated secondary surface frontal
low, from the central Great Plains across and northeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to build through the
day across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, with
one or two perturbations digging within weak northwesterly flow
further downstream, across the Allegheny Mountains and northern Mid
Atlantic vicinity.

A seasonably moist air mass, supportive of moderate to large
potential instability, is likely to be maintained within the warm
sector of the cyclone, to the north of the subtropical ridge.
However, it appears that this may be substantively modified, at
least initially, by outflow from thunderstorm development today
across a large portion of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region.
There have been some adjustments of categorical and probabilistic thunder/severe lines to account for associated uncertainties, and
also attempt to better account for consensus of varying model
output.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into southern Great Plains...
Downstream of the approaching short wave impulse and secondary low,
low-level warm advection on the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb
jet may be providing support for an evolving convective cluster
along/north of an outflow boundary across southwestern Iowa at the
outset of the period. This may include storms with potential to
produce severe hail, before perhaps becoming rooted in a
destabilizing boundary layer while spreading with forcing across
Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through Thursday
afternoon. This could include increasing potential for convection
capable of producing damaging wind gust and perhaps a few tornadoes.


Thereafter, the primary forcing for stronger destabilization and
lift to support strong/severe thunderstorm development seems likely
to shift to the intersection of the trailing outflow/secondary
surface low/cold front across southeastern Iowa by late afternoon.
This may include supercell development initially, before convection
grows upscale and organizes in the presence of strong low-level and
deep-layer shear, then propagates into and across the lower Lake Michigan/Michigan vicinities through Thursday evening, with
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered additional strong/severe storm development is possible in
the corridor of stronger pre-frontal instability, but weaker
mid/upper support and shear, southwestward through portions of the
southern Great Plains.

...Alleghenies/northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate to locally strong potentially instability probably will
become sufficient to support widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts Thursday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the
coast.


...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central
Appalachians...

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.

The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.


...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.


...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111731
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into
Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by
potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes,
offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will
remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S.
through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered
over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low
centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic
Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent
and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream
short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the
lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.

In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday
through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing
southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday.
Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River
Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is
forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air
slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity,
through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region.

..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic...
There still appears a general consensus within model output that
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable
potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with
insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the
Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and
perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak
mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the
700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive
to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening
low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to
sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and
Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become
supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to
produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies,
near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an
organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a
nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be
out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to
be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into
southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later
outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.

...Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK...

Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS
Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS,
MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.

Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in
the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is
possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by
afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.

Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS
into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower
MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent
outlooks.

...Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer
moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on
Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121730
SWODY2
SPC AC 121728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MUCH OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity
will pose a risk for producing large hail and swaths of strong,
potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will
begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across and
east of the Rockies through this period. Within this regime,
substantive mid-level troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper
Midwest, to the southwest of a lingering mid-level low centered
across northwestern Ontario. Spread within model output remains
larger concerning short wave perturbations digging through initially
weaker flow across the Missouri through lower Ohio Valleys, and the
extent to which they may begin to suppress the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf Basin.

In lower levels, an initial, convective outflow enhanced, surface
front overspreading much of the Mid Atlantic through Mid South
vicinity will likely already be in the process of weakening at the
outset of the period. However, surges of cooler/drier air will
continue to develop southward into and through the interior of the
U.S., with the general leading edge reaching the lower Great Lakes
through Ohio Valley, Ozarks Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z
Sunday. This may be preceded across the Ohio Valley through western
slopes of the Appalachians by outflow from extensive prior
convective development.

...Central Great Plains into Missouri Valley...
The potential for increasing thunderstorm development at the outset
of the period across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa (near the
nose of an east-northeastward advecting plume of elevated
mixed-layer air) coupled with potential for substantive, but
weakening, remnant convection from overnight overspreading the Ozark
Plateau, contribute to continuing uncertainty concerning subsequent
convective development Saturday through Saturday night.
The evolution of convective outflows, and their impact on
boundary-layer destabilization, coupled with uncertain short wave
developments, will substantially impact the timing, location and
potential upscale growth of potentially stronger thunderstorm
development.

However, beneath the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, a corridor
of stronger boundary-layer heating and deeper mixing across Kansas
during the day seems to provide the highest certainty for moderate
to strong destabilization. Near the nose of this regime, somewhere
across eastern Kansas into western Missouri, based on a consensus of
model output, low-level warm advection in the presence of weaker
inhibition may provide the focus for intensifying thunderstorm
development by late afternoon. And there appears a general signal
in the model output that a modifying outflow boundary/zone of
differential heating may provide a focus for the southeastward
development of upscale growing convection toward the Mid South
through Saturday night. As this occurs, increasing thunderstorm
development also appears probable ahead of the southward advancing
cold front across Kansas through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle
vicinity.

Although deep-layer shear may be initially modest, it may still be
sufficient to support the evolution of a few supercells capable of
producing large hail and potential for a couple tornadoes, before
evolving swaths of strong to severe wind gusts become the more
prominent threat with organizing clusters into late Saturday
evening.

..Kerr.. 06/12/2026

$$

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