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  • DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 2 02:00:13 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 020200
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 020158

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0858 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

    Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
    expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
    Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts are also possible
    within the Ozarks and portions of the Mid-South.

    ...01Z Update...
    Notable upper-level low is promote severe convection within the
    Central High Plains this evening. This activity with continue for a
    few more hours. The most organized convection has become more linear
    in southwestern Kansas. This will be the focal point for severe wind
    gusts this evening/overnight. Some of this risk may eventually
    spread in to northern Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms
    are also ongoing in Arkansas/northern Mississippi. These storms will
    be capable of large hail and damaging winds over the next few hours.
    The primary question remains how long the threat will continue. Some
    models still hint at linear organization occurring later tonight,
    but confidence is low as to where this will occur. Strongly forced
    convection may produce severe gusts in parts of eastern
    Montana/western North Dakota. A remaining pocket of enhanced shear
    and buoyancy is evident near the SC/GA border. A subtle shortwave
    may allow a cluster of storms to move south and east. Isolated
    damaging winds would be possible with this activity.

    ..Wendt.. 06/02/2026

    $$

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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:20:50 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 092020
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 092018

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
    EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
    NEW YORK...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today.

    ...20Z Update...
    Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorms forecast based
    on observations and recent guidance. Severe probabilities remain
    unchanged, however. See the previous discussion for additional
    information.

    ..Wendt.. 09/09/2026

    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026/

    ...OH/PA/NY...
    A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward
    today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary
    baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move
    eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
    Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and
    western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level
    lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized
    storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally
    damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western
    NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening.

    ...IN/IL/MO...
    The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the
    boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern
    IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker,
    with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few
    storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts.

    ...TX/OK/KS...
    Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a
    risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass.

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)