• Severe Potential Plains

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon May 20 16:23:00 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 202047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202047
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0854
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...southwest
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 202047Z - 202315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Initially high-based convection within the Front Range
    into southeast Wyoming will eventually spread east and intensify.
    Primary hazards will be severe wind gusts and large/very-large hail.
    A mesoscale corridor with greater tornado risk will in northeast
    Colorado and vicinity within the moisture axis. A watch will
    eventually be needed this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along the Front Range
    as upslope flow continues this afternoon. A weak thunderstorm has
    formed recently south of Denver in drier air. The exact timing of
    storm greater initiation/intensification is a bit unclear, but the
    approach of the mid-level ascent from the Four Corners region should
    foster additional development within the next 2-3 hours or so.
    Further, the lee trough to the east should also deepen and pull
    richer surface moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F, as observed in
    upstream in Kansas) into northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska.
    The current thinking is that storms will initiate within the Front
    Range as well as southeast Wyoming. Storms will initially be
    high-based and primarily capable of severe wind gusts and large
    hail. Storm intensification can be expected as they encounter richer
    moisture to the east. A greater tornado threat will exist with
    supercells moving within the moisture axis in northeast Colorado and
    nearby vicinity. Here, backed surface winds will combine with an
    eventual modest increase in easterly 850 mb winds to increase
    low-level hodograph curvature. Very-large hail will also become more
    probable as supercell storms intensify farther east.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39750224 39500376 40130466 41140504 41630438 41680241
    41230173 40350176 39750224


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