826
AXNT20 KNHC 071048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: As of 0300 UTC, a cold
front extends from 31N63W into the north-central Caribbean.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to
150 NM to the east of the front, and isolated showers are noted
farther east around 55W. The cold front will progress eastward
today, and gale force S to SW winds will occur ahead of the front
north of 29N early this morning. Strong to near-gale force W to NW
winds will also prevail behind the cold front north of 29N this
morning. The storm system will lift northeastward today, allowing
winds to diminish by tonight. Widespread rough seas generated by
this system will continue to progress to the south and east over
the next several days, producing rough seas in excess of 12 ft
north of 25N between 75W and 59W, with seas over 12 ft extending
to 52W through Sat. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are expected north of
27N between 75W and 63W today. Seas will slowly subside from west
to east Sat through Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near 11N15W and extends to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W
to 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05S to 03N between 15W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered in the eastern Gulf near 26N86W, and
ridging extends through the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds
are occurring near the center of the high pressure and off the
west coast of Florida, where seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. Farther
west, moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted west of 88W with
associated seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
will drift eastward through Sat, leading to gentle to moderate SE
winds east of 85W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will prevail
in the central and western basin today as the pressure gradient
strengthens between the aforementioned high and developing low
pressure in the central United States. A cold front associated
with the low pressure system is slated to enter the northwestern
Gulf Sat night, leading to widespread fresh to strong N to NW
winds and rough seas in the wake of the front Sun into Mon. Gale
conditions and very rough seas will be possible offshore Veracruz
on Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will rebuild across the basin
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from the Windward
Passage near 20N74W to 19N86W, then transitions to a stationary
front from that point to 19N88W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds are noted north of the front, with seas of 2 to 5 ft.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails, with light to gentle
winds dominating much of the Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds
over the waters S of 15N and E of 75W. Seas are in the 2 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken and
eventually diminish today. Moderate NE winds are expected in the
wake of the front this morning, with locally fresh winds occurring
through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,
locally fresh NE winds will be possible offshore of Colombia this
morning, with winds strengthening and expanding through the Gulf
of Venezuela tonight. Locally rough seas will occur near and to
the west of the strongest winds offshore of Colombia. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin this
weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure
in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend is slated to enter the
northwestern Caribbean by early next week, leading to fresh to
locally strong N winds and locally rough seas in its wake.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about the ongoing Gale
Warning and large swell event currently occurring.

A cold front extends from 31N63W into the north-central Caribbean.
Aside from the gale force winds and large swell, fresh to near-
gale force winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 24N and W of
55W. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near
31N18W to 27N35W, then becomes stationary to 29N47W. Moderate to
fresh NW to NW winds are found north of the fronts, with seas of 6
to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere, with
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will progress eastward
today, and gale force S to SW winds will occur ahead of the front
north of 29N early this morning. Strong to near-gale force W to NW
winds will also prevail behind the cold front north of 29N this
morning. The storm system will lift northeastward today, allowing
winds to diminish by tonight. Widespread rough seas generated by
this system will continue to progress to the south and east over
the next several days, producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft
north of 21N today, and north of 20N through Sat. Peak seas of 15
to 19 ft are expected north of 27N between 75W and 63W today. Seas
will slowly subside from west to east Sat through Sun. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front offshore of Florida
later today, as a complex low pressure system strengthens north of
the area. The pressure gradient between these features will
support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 29N and west of 70W by
late tonight, and west of 60W on Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front
is slated to push off the coast of the southeastern United States
early next week, leading to fresh to strong winds and rough seas
in the wake of the front.

$$
ADAMS
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