284
AXNT20 KNHC 081721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: N swell that continues
propagating through the central Atlantic and toward the tropical
waters is producing rough to very rough seas at 13-16 seconds
north of 13N east of 60W to the Canary Islands. The swell will
decay below 12 ft through tonight W of 40W. To the east, very
rough seas will accompany a low pressure area moving from the
Azores to the Canary Islands on Wed, before subsiding into Thu.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A front is moving off the northeast
Florida coast this morning. The front will stall from Bermuda to
the central Bahamas to central Cuba by late Wed. Favorable jet
dynamics aloft will support the development of low pressure along
the front northeast of the northern Bahamas by Wed afternoon. The
tight gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure north
of the area will support strong to near-gale force NE winds with
building seas north of 29N between 70W and 80W tonight into Wed
night, with winds reaching gale-force Wed morning into afternoon,
and seas building to 14 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Wed
night through Thu as the low pressure dissipates.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 02N24W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to near the coast of Brazil near
02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 200 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 26N82W into Yucatan Channel. Recent
scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh NW winds
follow the front. Recent buoy observations showed 7 to 10 ft wave
heights over the southwest Gulf, with mostly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along and to the
southeast of the front.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish today as high
pressure builds into the northern Gulf in the wake of the cold
front. A second, relatively weak cold front, is likely to move
through the Gulf late Thu into Fri. Fresh NW to N winds will
follow the front over the northeast Gulf Fri night into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow-moving cold front has entered the northwest Caribbean,
analyzed along 86W and S of 22N. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the front in the Gulf of Honduras. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE to E
winds off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade
winds across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
Fresh SE winds were also noted off Honduras, with gentle to
moderate E to SE winds elsewhere across the Caribbean. Moderate
seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually dissipate
from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the
front across the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean this
afternoon through early Wed, then diminish. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into
late week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia tonight. Farther
east, large N swell will impact Atlantic waters E of the Lesser
Antilles through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds and
building seas will follow the remnants of the front off the coast
of Nicaragua late Fri through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details
concerning the upcoming gale warning north of the Bahamas and the
large swell event in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N76W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and scattered
thunderstorms accompany the front mainly N of 28N. In the eastern
Atlantic, another, weaker cold front reaches from 31N17W to
22N26W, then becomes stationary to 19N43W. A shear line continues
from that point to 19N54W. 1022 mb high pressure is centered in
between these features over the central Atlantic near 28N53W. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere
across the basin, except for gentle to moderate NW winds following
the front in the eastern Atlantic. Large N swell covers much of
the central and eastern Atlantic, as described in the Special
Features section. Wave heights are generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic front will move east
into through Wed, then stall from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Behind
the front, strong NW winds will develop as low pressure forms
along the front just NE of the Bahamas tonight, as as the low
tracks NE, winds will increase to gale-force N of 28N between 70W
and 80W. Very rough seas will build in the area of gales.
Conditions will improve Thu as the low weakens and move NE of the
area. Another front will move off the coast of Florida Fri night,
followed by moderate to fresh winds. Farther east, large N swell
impacting waters east of 60W will continue southward into the
tropical Atlantic through tonight.

$$
ERA
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